August 28, 2006

Nigeria-Biafra War still Ongoing

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- The shooting war may have ended, but the civil war has continued albeit by other means. A lot
of Nigerians have continued to bury their head in the sand and pretend that all is well; some have even queried the Igbo cry of marginalisation, while some others have continued to live in denial, the obvious fact notwithstanding.

However the naked truth remains, that while a great majority of the Igbo have moved on since the end of the shooting phase of the war, other Nigerians and the federal caliphate government in particular has refused to move on.

Apartheid In Nigeria:

The continuing Apartheid policies of the caliphate government targeted at Ndigbo bears witness to this undeniable fact. A very interesting and glaring aspect of the continuing war by other means unfolded recently. The caliphate Nigerian government are always at their wits end when it comes to inventing evil Apartheid schemes with which to marginalize or exclude others.

In 1970 at the end of the shooting phase of the civil war, the caliphate government together with Eastern saboteurs invented the phrase “Abandoned property”, which they used to rob Ndigbo of their property in Port Harcourt (Igwe ocha) of all places in a supposed “one Nigeria”. Once again a new phrase “coastal states of the Niger-Delta” has been invented in a bid to exclude the oil producing states of Imo and Abia from the development and employment initiatives recently unfolded by the federal caliphate government. See link. http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/editorial/ed18082006.html

It should be noted, that the term “coastal states” was invented specifically to exclude the 2 Igbo oil producing states, but the evil schemers made a tactical error by including Edo state, which is not by any definition a coastal state. Whereas Imo and Abia states are officially classified among the 9 oil producing states, with Imo state classified as the 5th, and Abia state as the 7th largest oil producing states in Nigeria, the evil and divisive federal caliphate government could still so brazenly, callously, and unconscionably exclude 2 Igbo oil producing states, while including some states that produce far less oil.

Those who are so quick to find fault with Ndigbo, when they complain of discriminatory Apartheid policies of the federal caliphate government, can now begin to comprehend that Igbo marginalisation is real, and a fact of life. It is a cleverly planned evil scheme that has dominated the post- shooting war politics of the caliphate government. It has been actualised in different phases beginning from 1970.At one time a curious boundary adjustment annexed most of the oil producing areas in the then Imo state and relocated them to Rivers state. A prominent Igbo oil producing town known as Obigbo annexed from Imo state, even had it’s name changed to Oyigbo in a bid to de-Igbonize or destroy the Igbo identity of the town. If all the oil producing towns annexed to Rivers state from Imo state where to be returned, Imo state would be among the top 3 oil producing states in Nigeria.

A certain young man joins the Police, Armed forces or federal civil service; because he is Igbo he cannot aspire to reach the peak of his career. In the Police he cannot aspire to become the Inspector general, in the Armed forces he cannot aspire to be the Chief of army staff, or even a general until recently, in the federal civil service he cannot aspire to become a permanent secretary. Federal Infrastructure in the East is a no go area, as it is virtually non-existent. Such is a graphic analysis of the depth of the Apartheid Igbo marginalization in post- shooting war Nigeria, and the assault, trauma, and deprivation that Ndigbo have had to live with since almost 4 decades.

Post war politics in other nations; have been markedly different from the Nigerian route which has been largely punitive and exclusionist. At the end of the American civil war, President Andrew Johnson from Tennessee who took the reigns of power in 1865 after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln was from the secessionist Southern America. Reconciliation and reconstruction was genuine. True federalism continued with every state retaining the right to develop at their own pace. Issues based democracy free of rigging, and free of a candidate imposing caliphate also continued unfettered. To date there is no record of marginalisation, discrimination, or containment in either the professions or in infrastructure in post-war America.
Nigerian revisionists have attempted to sell the lie, that it took 100 years for an American from the erstwhile secessionist south to become president. There can be nothing farther from the truth, As President Andrew Johnson a bonafide Southerner became president less than a year after the end of the American civil-war.

Post-war Europe after the 2nd world war, incidentally the bloodiest conflict in human history, is another case in point. By 1953 less than 10 years after the end of the war, France and Germany erstwhile bitter foes put their past behind them, and started the nucleus of the European Union that has to date metamorphosed into a vibrant, dynamic, and mega-progressive union. So many other examples exist of how positive, genuinely reconciliatory post-war politics in several nations have led to highly progressive societes.The bitter and failing Nigeria we have today, full of hatred, ethno-religious strife, and crunching poverty, is a direct fallout of the obnoxious Apartheid policies introduced at the end of the shooting war, which has only served to exacerbate the lingering and unrelvolved contradictions inherent in our forced geographical space.

Nigeria is one of the only countries, where a civil war was concluded without recourse to guerrilla warfare. That stroke of good luck, I submit has been destroyed by the negative, retrogressive, and evil post-war politics of caliphate Nigeria. The government of Nigeria has spent more time devising evil methods on how to marginalize, contain, and arrest the development of Ndigbo, than they have spent thinking of how to develop Nigeria.

MASSOB though still non-violent is a legitimate reaction and response to the long years of criminal Apartheid policies visited on Ndigbo.There is a limit to which you can push a people to the wall. A whole generation of Ndigbo are growing up with deep hatred and resentment towards a caliphate Nigeria, in which they feel no sense of belonging, and in which they see their potentials, and development deliberately arrested. Ignoring this trend would be at Nigeria’s peril.

It should be noted, that no army no matter how powerful has ever successfully defeated militants employing guerrilla warfare tactics. Iraq remains a clear pointer to such a scenario. I am not an advocate of war; neither do I believe in war as the best means to resolve political differences. But the fact remains, that if the federal caliphate government does not make a bold move to put an end to such brazen obnoxious Apartheid policies against Ndigbo, there is no way Nigeria can escape a muscular unwinnable guerrilla conflict with Ndigbo somewhere in the future.

History bears witness, that men have almost always chosen freedom, to external or internal colonialism, slavery, or bondage. In all cases they have preferred death to a life of servitude. The Nigerian situation is exactly the same. People will in due course prefer to die, rather than accept such evil and inhuman acts of Apartheid.

As I have said previously elsewhere, the hypocritical caliphate Nigerian government though always quick to shout “one Nigeria” yet they remain the greatest enemies of Nigerian unity. Their Apartheid policies, as exemplified by the “Coastal states of the Niger-Delta” exclusionist agenda, reinforces and vindicates the beliefs and convictions of those who believe their salvation lies in tearing down an evil, incompassionate,unprogressive,and moribund caliphate Nigeria.
In conclusion, I wish to state, that the “Coastal states of the Niger-Delta” initiative is bound to fail, for the same reasons that caliphate Nigeria is failing. No project founded on evil conspiracies, mago-mago, 419, naked deception, and exclusion can succeed. Until the day, the “Pharaoh’s” of caliphate Nigeria becomes sober, if ever, and begins a process of genuine reconciliation, honest dialogue, inclusion, and equality, anything Nigeria touches will undoubtedly continue to fail.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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August 21, 2006

Ndigbo / 2007 and Echoes of the Civil War

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- In an article titled “Igbo and the presidential seat” written by Mobolaji Sanusi and published in the vanguard of the 30th of June.Mr Mobolaji did a very honest analysis of the current political quagmire vis-avis the current struggle by different ethnic groups to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo.

I must admit that I agree with the general direction of his analysis, the only aspect that I disagree with, is the insinuation that Ndigbo tried to secede before, and as such the North may not be favourably disposed to an Igbo presidency for fear that the Igbo, once given power may want to secede again.

I have before now noticed a particular trend, where some commentators have insinuated that it took Southern Americans who also fought a civil war, 100 hundred years to come to power, therefore Ndigbo should also wait a hundred years. (Will we still have Nigeria by then?) There is no greater lie than this. President Andrew Johnson from Tennessee who took the reigns of power after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln in 1865, immediately after the end of the American civil war, is from the secessionist Southern America. Nigerian ethnic tigers, born to rule merchants, and status quo revisionists, are now also undertaking a revision of American history in their desperation to keep Ndigbo out of power.

In the first place, the American civil war, which was a war between those who wanted to continue slavery, and those who wanted to abolish slavery cannot in any breath be compared to the Nigerian civil war, which was a war brought about by the genocidal massacres of erstwhile Eastern Nigerians in Northern and parts of Western Nigeria. The outcry, activism, and even threats of secession that followed the annulation of the June 12 elections by the Yoruba, and the ongoing insurgency by the Niger-Delta militants peeved by long years of injustice has shown and proved beyond all reasonable doubts, that if any ethnic group had faced the kind of onslaught Ndigbo faced in the 60’s with the large scale massacre of her citizens, they would also have opted for secession as a means of self preservation and defence.

Unlike multi ethnic Nigeria, America at that time was a largely homogenous society in race and religion, as Americans are mostly grouped by race, and at that time the Black Americans who were still mostly slaves were not in contention in the power structure. So unlike Nigeria, it could safely be concluded that America’s civil war was actually fought between the same racial group who disagreed on the continuation or abolition of slavery.

The post civil war politics of America is also clearly different from that of Nigeria. While Nigeria engaged in robbing Ndigbo of their property in the name of “Abandoned property” in a supposed one Nigeria, and institutionalising the containment and Apartheid policies of marginalisation of Ndigbo, and the balkanisation of Igbo land proper. America engaged in a real political and structural reconstruction period which genuinely resolved most of the constitutional issues. Unlike in Nigeria, there is no record of the marginalisation of Southern Americans in the military or professions. Indeed the chief of staff of the American armed forces right after the civil war was a Southern American. True federalism and electoral democracy continued right after the civil war with each state reserving the absolute right to develop at their own pace.
All Americans North and South post- war, continued to enjoy equal opportunities based on merit to government positions. There are as yet no reports or evidence that the American leadership developed schemes to contain the South, or denied the South infrastructure as has been the case in Nigeria.

The perception that it took South Americans 100 years to get to power is naked lie, used by ethnic tigers in Nigeria to seek to maintain their destructive status quo hold on power. Even if it is true, that Southern Americans were prevented from coming to power on account of the civil war; pray why have the ethnic tigers neglected all the positive aspects of the successful post-war politics of America that was free of the marginalization or containment of any group? Why have they neglected the technological feats, agricultural abundance, sophisticated infrastructure, the rule of law which are the hallmarks of American society, only to dwell on the negative perception of preventing the South from getting to power in a 100 years because it suits their primitive and base tribal agenda’s?

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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June 16, 2006

Waiting for the Messiah

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- Looking back at the era of slavery and the continuing predicament of the Negro African, I have come to understand why it was possible for the Negro, of all the races to be enslaved en masse.

Slavery remains the most humiliating and inhuman act in all history. But the argument the European slave merchants advanced to justify slavery remains relevant even today.

The slave merchants had argued that the Negro was subhuman, and was incapable of organising a normal society, or even co-exist peacefully with their African neighbours. To-date it is not uncommon to hear white racists insisting that Africans are inferior and cannot co-exist peacefully.

Truth is African nations have continued to validate an argument that sought to justify slavery and eventually colonialism more than three hundred years ago. The enslavery of Negro Africans on a large scale was possible in part because Africans then as now were greedy, and readily became middlemen that sustained the trade by kidnapping and supplying the Europeans with African slaves. The level of greed that made it possible for Africans to sell their kinsfolk to strange unknown foreigners is still prevalent.

In drawing parallels with the situation that led to slavery, I have often contemplated the Nigerian quagmire. Nigeria as the most populous Black nation easily mirrors the rest of the Black race.
If she succeeds the black race succeeds, if she fails the black race fails. However Nigeria has unfortunately remained a nation which just doesn’t seem to get it right. We seem to be pathologically bent on failure.

The image of the typical African today is that of a “sick, starving, warring, begging, genocidal, lesser homo sapiens” as is commonly seen on the screens of televisions. There is a total absence of dignity, even as Africans are regarded as the least in the ladder of the human race.

The greater tragedy, is that those African so called leaders are so shameless and so unconscionable, that they actually thrive on the misery of their subjects. (notice the same behaviour pattern with the erstwhile African slave traders).

As Nigeria come 2007 enters what can be called the final phase in the making or unmaking of a “stillborn nation”. We must ask ourselves; What kind of a nation do we want? Do we need to stay together, or do we need to part ways peacefully? Where did we get it wrong? Should we remain in the past, or should we move on? How can we use our own situation to change the negative perception of the African?
These are all questions we need to ponder in our onerous search for an egalitarian, and mega-prosperous nation.

Nigerians have been waiting for a messiah. Someone who will enthrone, justice, equality and fairplay. A leader who will wage a decisive and honest battle against the cancer of corruption.
A totally detribalised pan-Nigerian leader who will without fear or favour do justice to all and sundry, regardless of ethnic affiliation or religious leaning.

A humanist and realist who will convene a “Sovereign national conference”, end all the contradictions of present day Nigeria, restructure the nation along natural ethnic lines, devolve considerable power to the federating ethnic regions, give us a constitution truly enacted by the people, and usher in a “mega and melting pot Nigeria” where every tribe,culture,and religion is celebrated.

Many countries have had their Messiah’s, notably Ghana, in the person of flight lt. Jerry Rawlings who executed all the erstwhile corrupt leaders and enthroned a new order in Ghana.
P.W.De Klerk, who against all odds dismantled Apartheid and ushered in Black majority rule in South-Africa.

The greatest obstacle to Nigeria’s renaissance, is the continuing influence of the military and political class who have held Nigeria hostage since 1970. This tiny self serving “oil block” cabal constitutes the greatest obstacle to a progressive Nigeria.

As we continue to wait and hope for a Nigerian messiah, the Ghanaian example as exemplified by Flight lt. Jerry Rawlings surgical action against corrupt leaders, might be what Nigeria really needs. Time will tell.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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May 23, 2006

2007 Presidency: South-East, South-South, Using one Stone to Kill two Birds

(An analysis of how the collective South can present a formidable front to retain the Presidency) by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- There is no denying the fact that Nigeria was founded most naturally on a tripod.

Constituted by the Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa. Having come out from long locust years of Northern rule, and being on the verge of completing 8 years of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s regime, logic demands that it should be the turn of the Igbo in other to strike a balance and reach middle ground. Nigeria is a mortally sick nation, made more so by those who have constituted themselves the internal colonisers of the Nigerian space. The actions and style of leadership of this group, have made many Nigerians to lose their sense of belonging in the still born Nigerian project.

The result is that today we have many groups seeking secession from what they consider an evil and monumentally unjust “Apartheid state”.

Against this reality, anybody who truly loves Nigeria (not those who pretend to) would see the wisdom in respecting the tripod, in other to put to rest the deafening agitation for seccesion,and guarantee once and for all Nigeria’s survival as an entity. However the South-South 80% of which was formerly part of the defunct Eastern region, are also pressing their demands for the presidency on the grounds that nobody from their zone has ever tasted the presidency. Valid as this claim may be, it should be noted that the South-East presided over the presidency for only 6 months, which in every practical sense is next to nothing. Against this backdrop it can be logically argued that both zones are qualified for the presidency, and if we have to follow the express dictates of politics being a game of numbers, then the South-East would be more disposed to clinching it.

But there is a snag, both the South-East and South-South are a somewhat homogenous group of people with shared borders and common interests whose future and destiny are inextricably linked. A protracted power struggle within the 2 zones, will only serve to divide their votes, and play into the hands of the North, who are likely to mount a muscular challenge to return the presidency to the North.

The way forward is simple and practical.Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is an Igbo, from the South-South. A Harvard trained incorruptible former world bank vice president, and one of the main arrowheads of the widely acclaimed ongoing reforms. Without any doubt she is easily one of the most qualified for the presidency.Dr Ngozi’s presidency will be a case of using 1 stone to kill 2 birds. It will satisfy both the aspirations of the Igbo and the South-South.
On the other hand the Olusegun Obasanjo administration is more likely to be more favourable to a technocrat who can be guaranteed to continue with the ongoing reforms. Politicians might promise to continue with the reforms, but once in power they are likely to introduce their own agenda.

The South-East and South-South elders must meet urgently in the spirit of brotherhood to present Dr Ngozi-Okonjo Iweala as a compromise candidate for both zones. All other candidates or aspiring candidates from both zones must stand down. The importance of fielding a single candidate from both zones cannot be overstated. It would give both zones a historic and momentous opportunity to give block support to one of their own, and herald a new era in Nigerian history. All political calculations point to a sure victory for Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala if both zones present a formidable and united front. Past bitterness and acrimony that may have existed between the 2 zones must be eschewed in this onerous struggle to capture the presidency. The collective interests of both zones far outweighs any past trivialities.

The strategic importance of power remaining in the South for a few more years is common knowledge. Men of goodwill and genuine lovers of Nigeria have variously posited that power shift to the South-East and South-South would consolidate Southern unity, and be the greatest boost to Nigerian unity, and possibly president Olusegun Obasanjo’s greatest legacy. Nigerians will also for the first time have the opportunity of electing a highly qualified technocrat and high end achiever, breaking away from a mediocre past that have rendered the nation comatose. In this era of women,Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remains Nigeria’s greatest monument of hope. History beckons.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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May 18, 2006

Beyond 2007: Shaky Future Awaits Nigeria

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- While we celebrate the defeat of the obnoxious 3rd term amendment that sought to give President Olusegun Obasanjo an extra term in office, we must pause and reflect on the short and long term consequences of the total dumping of the amendment of the 1999 constitution.

All and sundry had accepted that the 1999 constitution needed an amendment to reflect the true yearnings of Nigerians. But the consequences of the total dumping of the amendment process which contained 115 points of amendment aside from the 3rd term clause amounts to “dumping the baby with the bathwater”.

This scenario no doubt is more of a victory for the North, who had hitherto in their usual unprogressive stance opposed in toto the amendment of the 1999 constitution in spite of the many positive aspects of the proposed amendment. The 3rd term imbroglio poisoned the atmosphere sufficiently to pave the way for a radical dumping of the whole process.

The evil manipulations, insincerity and tactlessness of the arrowheads of the 3rd term quest, must be blamed for unwittingly playing into the hands of the unprogressive caliphate North, who has relentlessly and stubbornly sought to maintain a terribly unjust, highly centralised, unprogressive, exploitative, and lopsided status quo.

In this regard Chief Tony Anenih the architect of 3rd term, and President Olusegun Obasanjo must take the greatest blame. Perhaps if there had been no 3rd term agenda, the whole nation would have been engaged in a progressive and democratic constitutional amendment, with little chance of the process suffering the same fate as has now befallen it.

The questions we now need to ask is: what happens to the proposal to enshrine rotational presidency in the constitution? What happens to the proposed increase in derivation to 18%? What happens to the proposed creation of an extra state in the South-east? What happens to the proposal to remove immunity from the rabidly corrupt governors? What happens to the proposal to introduce measures that will actualise true federalism?. These and so many other progressive amendments have been killed because of an ill advised and selfish wild cat 3rd term chase.

If by any act of omission the North returns to power prematurely, knowing the character of the North, the proposed progressive constitutional amendments are as good as dead. And Nigerians will commence another long run in the wilderness. The consequence is that once again we have ended up running round in a circle, with no prospects of ever achieving a just and progressive society.
Obasanjo’s greatest disservice to the Nigerian people, is undoubtedly his inability to restructure the nation along zonal or regional lines, in spite of the popular clamour that trailed his administration from inception. The implications of a persisting status quo structure, nullifies every other thing his administration might have achieved, which in any case could be overturned in 24hours.The over centralised system remains highly susceptible to abuse, and could easily breed a dictator.

It should be noted that in 60 years the essential character of the North has not changed in regards to their policies, that most of the time contradicts the very essence of the stillborn Nigerian nation. It remains to be seen if there would be any substantial difference in the coming dispensation. President Olusegun Obasanjo can still enshrine his legacy in gold, by the choice of whom he chooses as his successor. The choice of a progressive would go a long way in giving Nigerians hope in a hopeless land. Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and Dr Dora Akunyili easily comes to mind in this regards. In civilised and progressive climes where character and performance determines who becomes president, these ladies, incorruptible, and detribalised heroines of the Nigerian nation would be unbeatable. But in Nigeria? Well let’s wait and see.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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The Curse of Oil

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- Nigeria’s demise began from the very day crude oil was discovered in Oloibiri in the old Rivers state. Crude oil has only served in every practical way to further drive Nigerians deeper and deeper into the poverty trap.

The regional agricultural exploits of yore, that gave rise to groundnut pyramids in the North, Palm oil in the East, and Cocoa in the West was quickly abandoned. Technical know how and brain power as the surest means of attaining a sustainable and advanced economy was quickly thrown in the garbage bin.

More than 50 years later, with crude oil selling for over $70.00 a barrel, Nigerians are among the worlds poorest people, with practically the lowest life expectancy in the world.

Nigerians are not just poor, Nigerians are desperately poor. All the minimum basic prerequisites of a normal or sane society are inexistent. The environment is junk, the roads (if you can call them that) are death traps, the hospitals are better described as morgues. The education system has virtually collapsed. There is a total absence of morality and dignity.
The standard of living of the average Nigerian is somewhat subhuman, closer to what obtained in George Orwell’s “Animal farm”.

In the development rating of nations, Nigeria has moved from being a 3rd world country, to being on the verge of being reclassified a 4th world Country for evident reasons. Little wonder that some hapless citizens, stung by unbelievable poverty, in a bid to get their own share of the national cake, perished while scooping petroleum from underground high pressure pipes.
At the last count about 200 of them died. They died not because they deserved to die, but because the same oil which under normal circumstances would have made them achieve a reasonable standard of living, ironically only served to make them destitute. And the corresponding struggle to survive meant that no risk was too great to take.

No doubt the presence of crude oil in Nigeria, will continue to take thousands of life. Most of the power struggle and strife in the Niger-Delta, is directly linked to the struggle to control the oil resources by regional power blocks. So many massacres have already taken place in the Niger-Delta, and more might yet come, in the federal governments bid to maintain and control access to the oil wells. The presence of crude oil in the erstwhile Biafran republic was one of the dynamics that led to the war. Oil has all, but made Nigerians throw away their thinking caps, and creativity which remains the greatest asset in building modern economies, has gone with the wind..

The struggle for the control of oil has notoriously become the greatest killer within the Nigerian geographical space. Nigeria would have been a better, richer, better organised, and more peaceful nation if oil had not been found. The trend had already started. Nobody can forget so soon the many trail blazing feats achieved by the western region relying entirely on cocoa as the money spinner, neither can we forget the feats and development strides achieved by the East and North, with palm oil, and groundnuts, as the mainstay of their respective regional economies. Indeed the infrastructure and institutions built by the erstwhile regions has to date not been rivalled by the oil dependent succeeding states inspite of the megabucks earned from the sale of crude oil. Malaysia and Ivory Coast thriving on an economy powered by palm oil and cocoa respectively, are great showcases of success, and the greatest indictment of Nigeria and her burden of crude oil.

What happens when the oil runs out? This is one question Nigerians never ask. Crude oil is a wasting asset and will sooner or later be depleted. In the absence of any initiatives being taken by the federal government to build local capacities that can sustain the economy, when the oil does run out. Nigerians must gird their loins, because the worst is yet to come!

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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May 17, 2006

Biafra Remains a Last, Viable, and Realisable Resort

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) ---

If the price of nationhood is constant bloodletting, then let us not be a nation ~~~ Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu

There is undeniable evidence, that had Biafra succeeded it would have been the most advanced black nation, giving some dignity to the battered psyche of the average Negro. In the 3 years of her existence Biafra broke the jinx regarding technological feats. white racists had consistently argued that the African is subhuman, and is incapable of achieving even the least technological competence.Biafra proved them wrong.

Biafra’s famed ingenuity has todate remained in the front burner of political debates. Given Nigeria’s continuing rumble in the jungle, and her incapability to provide the most basic of essential structures, services, and resolve the many fundamental contradictions that have dogged the nation since independence. Most erstwhile Biafrans are reinforced in their beliefs, that Biafra remains a better option, to escape the roil and rot of an “Animal farm” Nigeria.

Without any doubt an independent Biafra,would have pursued the development and standardization of the many local technologies developed during the war. And Biafra by now would have predictably reached the level of mid- level technological countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand,etc.On the political side,Biafra would have obviously been more inclusive. Whereas it is almost impossible for an Efik to be the president or even vice president in present day Nigeria, such a feat would have been more easily realisable in a smaller and more homogenous nation like Biafra.Indeed the Vice president, and last head of state of the now defunct Biafra Major General Philip Effiong is an Efik.

The current economic, social, and religious restiveness prevalent in Nigeria, would have been unimaginable in Biafra, given that Biafrans are almost 100% Christians, and the smaller population and landmass would have naturally provided for a more equitable distribution of resources and infrastructural development. Biafra has become the proverbial “Cat with nine lives” principally because Nigeria has stubbornly chosen to continue on the ignoble part of the exploitation, and enslavement of her supposed citizens.

Nigeria is bedevilled with numerous social, economic, and political malaise. The ethnic groups carry a mountain of grudges against each other, 61 years after, the killing of Southern Christians
and even Moslems which actually began in 1945 have continued in the North unpunished. There is anarchy in the land, things have fallen apart, but yet the federal Government has refused to find lasting solutions to the Nigerian Question. There still abounds a lot of incurable optimists who insist, the obvious fact notwithstanding, that Nigeria will not disintegrate. I submit that recent trends have pointed more to the reality of a possible break-up.

Just recently the Northern states declared Sharia in outright disregard of Nigeria’s constitutional secular status.10 years ago nobody could have imagined that the Niger-Delta militants would be able to take up arms and hold the federal government to ransom. The re-emergence of the agitation for Biafra, and it’s surprising mass support by the Igbos would have been thought impossible just a few years ago. In 1990 Major Gideon Orkar had organised a failed coup in which the principal objective was to expel the core Northern states from Nigeria. The implications of these scenarios is that Nigerians are moving further and further apart by the day.

Agreed that the Niger-Delta militants have not asked for seccesion,and the MASSOB is non violent. But as the unresolved injustices continue, and as the militants become bolder and more confident, it is highly predictable that the Niger-Delta militants will at some point begin to ask for secession, which I suspect is their primary objective, and splinter groups from MASSOB will most likely take up arms. It is instructive to note that those who are in the forefront of the Biafran struggle are the youths. As recent events have shown the youths have remained undeterred by the arrest, trial for treason, and extra judicial killing of many of their members by Nigerian security forces.

Nobody can accurately predict what can happen in the next few years, but it is a safe bet, that the centrifugal and centripetal forces tearing at the nations fabric will continue to intensify. Certain unforeseen circumstances like a sectional coup, or sustained sectarian violence could be a catalyst, that can unleash a chain of events to hasten Nigeria’s disintegration. The increasing seeming integration of Nigerians in major cities, and increasing inter-ethnic marriage has not in anyway dimmed the problem. If anything inter-ethnic hatred is getting worse by the day. The Ijaw and Itshekiri crisis in Warri a few years ago, rubbished the insinuation that inter-ethnic marriages serves to douse long standing hatred.

Nigeria has never made as much money, as she is making now, yet poverty continues to ravage the land. The multiplier effects of instability, corruption, and strife will continue to ensure that the average Nigerian remains poor and miserable. Volumes have been written, numerous suggestions have been made, on how to resolve the imbroglio, yet successive Nigerian governments just like the biblical “Pharaoh” have continued to turn a deaf ear.
Against this backdrop 3 likely scenarios are likely to be thrown up in Nigeria in the final equation.

(1) Ethnic Regionalism

Sustained sectarian violence, full scale insurgency by militant groups, a mass rising, or possibly a junior officers revolutionary coup amongst other unforeseen possibilities sometime in the future, could lead to a redrawing of the Nigerian plate, ushering in a return to autonomous ethnic regions. The regions would be such that the major ethnic groups and some other sizable ethnic groups would be able to form autonomous regions, while smaller ethnic groups would band together in contiguous areas to form their own autonomous regions. The regional structure would herald a very weak and unattractive centre, and give each ethnic group the opportunity to develop at their own pace, without let or hindrance.

(2) Confederate Southern Nigeria Republic

The same set of situations outlined above, but with harder uncompromising positions on both divides of the conflict, could lead the South and possibly the Middle belt to act together to seccede,on the basis of the pre-1914 status of Southern Nigeria. The negotiated structure of the new nation is likely to throw up a quasi-confederate system of autonomous regions, with each region controlling their resources and retaining the right to self determination.

(3) Biafran Republic

Based on the subsisting scenario’s, Biafra would most likely come about, when there is total chaos, and the Major ethnic groups in the South are acting independently, or when the United Nations intervenes to supervise a referendum on self rule as they did in East Timor, and are about to do in Kosovo, and Southern Sudan . Other likely and unforeseen circumstances could also lead to the eventual total disintegration of Nigeria. Biafran planners envisage a confederate structure, of wholly autonomous regions, resource control, and a perpetual right to self determination by constituent units.

CONCLUSIONS

There are optimists who have argued, that unlike the former Soviet Socialist Republics, and Eastern Europe, most African conflicts in i.e. Angola, Sierra Leone, Liberia, DRC etc have not led to disintegration. But the ignored fact is that, none of these conflicts had secession as their aim. Most African conflicts have been a struggle for power as against secession. Currently in the Ivory Coast, there is a bitter power struggle between the North and the South which has led to armed conflict, but again we note that even in this conflict, the aim is not secession, but a power struggle by the North which feels marginalized and excluded from the corridors of power. The only African countries that had secession as their stated aim was Eritrea, who achieved their aim, Southern Sudan who will be having a United Nations sponsored referendum on self rule in 6 years, and of course Biafra who failed in their first attempt, but who have resurrected the struggle.

Above all else, the question we need to ask is, what makes a group of people feel bitter enough to demand secession?. The answer is simple “Injustice”. In an inclusive system where there is social justice, continuing dialogue, and where your rights are guaranteed, no group will have the incentive to seek secession. Successive Nigerian governments, by consistently refusing genuine dialogue to resolve the Nigerian quagmire, have ironically constituted the greatest enemies to Nigerian unity.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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May 09, 2006

Nigeria can only get Worse, Not Better

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- The madness that is currently going on in Nigeria, should not be a surprise, it is the direct implication of operating a very strong centre, where the “winner takes all”. A Nigerian President is the equivalent of a “God”.

He has absolute control of the Police, Armed forces, judiciary etc.He uses the police and Army to hound and even kill those who oppose him, and uses them to protect those who support and sing his praises. He decides projects to execute in states or zones, and decides those not to be executed in certain states or zones in line with the unwritten marginalisation policy. He decides who to appoint to certain so called sensitive positions, and those from certain areas not to appoint, also in keeping to the marginalisation policy. If a President from “A” tribe is in power, he makes sure that he appoints only people from his “A” tribe to strategic positions and into positions where there is a lot of “Egunje” .

Because the President is like a God, he has the power of life and death. He can obey the law when he chooses, and disobey it when he chooses. The kidnap of a sitting governor, and burning down of government property in Anambra state, the total destruction of the governors office in Oyo state and the subsequent arbitrary impeachment of the governor at the whims and caprices of a political godfather connected to the “ God of Aso rock” is a clear testimony to the “Godliness” of Aso rock.

The Godlike nature of Aso rock is such that Aso rock plays the role of a father to the states. The states being the children of the Aso rock father, are not allowed to make their own money. They depend on the Aso rock father for monthly handouts. The God of Aso rock does not love all his children equally, infact he hates some of his children, and can sometimes withhold the monthly handouts to such a hated child. There are some particular children that the God of Aso rock hates so much, that he can become very creative when he wants to exclude those children from any development initiative that can be beneficial to them.

The recent Niger-Delta initiative is a clear pointer to such scenarios. The initiative was designated “Coastal states of the Niger-Delta” in order to cleverly exclude Abia and Imo States who happen to be some of the children that the God of Aso rock hates. But the lie was exposed when Edo state which is not a coastal state was included in the initiative.

Funny enough when those children of the God of Aso rock who are being maltreated, complain of the injustice being meted out to them, and announce their intention to separate from the God of Aso rock, they are severely punished for ever contemplating such a thing.
Most of the children have asked their father to convene, a “Sovereign national conference” where the father and the children can talk to resolve all their problems. They also proposed a situation where they can have some level of autonomy in their own homes and control their own resources instead of receiving handouts, but the God of Aso rock backed by certain favoured children that are benefiting from the injustice has consistently refused to convene any such conference.
The consequence is that some of those hated children are now planning to wage “Guerrilla warfare” against their father, the God of Aso Rock. Can you blame them?

Against this backdrop, of overwhelming Godlike powers of a Nigerian president, all of whom have todate been tribal leaders, What is the guarantee that Nigeria will get better when another president assumes such powers, knowing the nature of the African and their penchant to abuse power?. Indeed those of them like Gen. Babangida, and Vice president Atiku. whose names have been bandied about for the presidency makes the scenario even more frightening. The reason every ethnic group is struggling to produce the president, is because of the overwhelming powers and possibilities inherent in that office, and because of the high level of injustice, and marginalisation being perpetrated against other ethnic groups by presidents who come from different ethnic groups.

The multiplier effect is that every ethnic group believes it can only get justice when someone from their own ethnic group is the president.

In genuine nations, hence your rights are guaranteed, it doesn’t matter where the president comes from, what matters is the issues, not the race or ethnicity. In the Nigerian instance the reverse is the case. Given the failure of the Obasanjo administration serving the interests of the Feudal North, against popular demands, to restructure the country to preferably autonomous ethnic regions and the attendant devolution of powers, which will in effect permit each region to develop at their own pace, and herald a very weak centre.

I predict a continuation of abuse of powers, absence of the rule of law, ethnic politics and the attendant continuation of marginalisation of certain groups. Even if crude oil is sold at $1000 a barrel, I predict the continued ravage of massive, blinding poverty for obvious reasons.

Looking at my crystal ball, I see increasing ethnic and religious strife, I see the Niger-Delta, and the OPC increasing their militancy, and I see the Igbo East beginning armed insurgency. Finally I see what looks like Nigeria breaking up into smaller units, either as outright disintegration or a forced return to autonomous regions. Except of course there is a revolution, or surprisingly a Pan- Nigerian “Messiah” becomes the president in 2007, Nigeria can only get worse, not better.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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April 30, 2006

Why the North Must Not Return to Power

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (Dundalk, Republic of Ireland) --- There has been a consistent pattern of policies and demonstrated intentions by the Caliphate North since the pre-independence era, that has sufficiently exposed their domineering and unprogressive agenda. Consequently the prospect of their return to power is at best a nightmare, and is something that must be prevented at all cost, by any means necessary.

In 1957 when Chief Anthony Enahoro famously moved the motion for independence, The North opposed it, and made certain ridiculous demands which subsequently delayed Nigeria’s independence until 1960.
British colonialists believing they had found a willing ally in the North, because of their earlier opposition to independence, moved to subtly design and aid Northern dominance over other regions. They started by inflating Census numbers in favour of the North, and consolidating on a redrawn map of Nigeria, that gave the North a vastly superior landmass. Ignoring the natural North and South boundaries as demarcated by the River Niger. Thus began the monumental fraud that has largely dogged the nation to-date.

Little wonder that at independence, the nationalists like Chief Obafemi Awolowo, and Dr Nnamidi Azikiwe that actively fought for independence, were cleverly schemed out of power. Not too surprisingly, the North that actively worked against independence mounted the saddle of power (Courtesy of the British).Tafawa Balewa a hardly educated Northern politician, bereft of any ideas for strategic economic, and social development, became the Prime Minister and head of government. His regime was marked by inter-regional wrangling, rigging of elections and population census results in favour of the Feudal North, and massive social unrest that led to daily massacres in the Western region (We-tie).
Beyond all logic, his regime technically ignored the crisis in the Western region, leading to an escalation in the crisis, and the subsequent frame up and arrest of Chief Obafemi Awolowo for complicity in a phantom coup plot. He was subsequently tried and jailed by the Tafawa Balewa administration.

Consequent upon the continuing social unrest, public opinion and the press turned against the Prime minister Tafawa Balewa regime, such that they were open calls for a coup. Long before the jan.1966 coup, there were already rumours of an impending coup which was directly linked to the social crisis at the time.The Jan.1966 coup itself was initially very popular as people jubilated openly in the streets, before it was conveniently reclassified an Igbo coup.
In July 1966 there was a so called counter coup by the North, against the General Aguiyi Ironsi’s regime that had succeeded Prime minister Tafawa Balewa’s government. The Northern coup was not in any way like any known or conventional coup. Rather than concentrating on eliminating Igbo political and military leaders (since it was supposedly a counter coup against the Igbo leadership) Northern military officers and civilians went into town and started the wholesale slaughter and massacre of Igbo and other Eastern Nigerians. At the last count up to 50,000 civilians were slaughtered.

The scale and scope of the massacres, made it more of a genocidal attempt, than a coup. I am yet to see anywhere in the world where coups are done by killing tens of thousands of civilians.
The Northern mutineers probably appreciated the consequences and implications of their actions, which necessitated their declaring the unconventional counter coup, a secessionist coup (Araba).Their stated intention was to secede from the rest of Nigeria. Lt Col. Yakubu Gowon had preparatory to the planned Northern secession famously announced that “there was no basis for Nigerian unity”.
The Northern somersault from a planned secession, to a policy of “keeping Nigeria one at all cost” led to the civil war, which was occasioned by the unprecedented large scale massacre of Eastern civilians. It is highly predictable, that had the North concentrated their counter coup on the elimination of Igbo political leaders, and the subsequent seizure of power there would have been no war.

The North succeeded in forming a coalition against the Eastern region in the prosecution of the Civil war. Undoubtedly other Nigerians were misled into believing that the North had a genuine and sincere motive for the quest to preserve a united Nigeria. However the end of the war, and it’s aftermath have largely unmasked and revealed the true intentions of the North. Basking in the glory of the civil war victory, they designed a pattern of marginalisation and containment of the Igbo,which has continued to date, and gradually extended the marginalisation to their erstwhile allies. The North ensured that they dominated all strategic positions in the military, and federal government parastatals,occasionally giving some insignificant positions to their civil war allies. The mindset of the North as regards the absolute control of power,is in line with their belief, that they are “Born to rule”.
With the exception of Gen.Olusegun Obasanjo, who accidentally became head of state, after the unexpected assassination of General Murtala Muhammed.The long list of heads of states since independence have been Northerners.

Their determination to prevent any Southerner from getting to power became more manifest, when the June 12 elections acclaimed to be the freest and fairest was cancelled, in spite of the fact that Chief Moshood Abiola himself a Muslim, was running on a Muslim, Muslim ticket.
Following the heat generated by the cancellation of the June 12 elections, the North began a frantic search for a Southerner they can control and trust to return “their power back to them” after a few years, so that they can continue their unbroken run on power unfettered.
Their search settled on President Olusegun Obasanjo, not because they loved him, but because they felt they could trust him having delivered the first time around.
There are reports that President Olusegun Obasanjo was asked to sign certain documents, probably to guarantee retention of the status quo.

Northern rule which lasted for 36 out of the 45 years of independence is a classical study in mismanagement, incompetence, corruption, tyranny, ethnic and religious intolerance. The unitary system of government, which ironically was one of the reasons the July 1966 counter coupists claimed they had to strike, was maintained and strengthened in outright disregard of Nigeria’s diversity. Ethnic and religious killings of Southern Christians resumed in the North less than 10 years after the civil war, and has continued to date. There is abundant evidence that Northern Politicians and religious leaders sponsor the riots, but to date no single Northerner has faced trial for such ritual periodic killings.
It is instructive to note that no senior Northern politician has ever condemned the periodic killings of Christians in the North.

Neither the Arewa consultative forum, nor Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, nor Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, nor Vice president Atiku Abubakar,amongst others has ever condemned such killings, or taken any major initiatives to put a final stop to such killings. This aptly demonstrates their tacit support for such heinous and barbaric crimes. Indeed there is hardly any surprise, considering that the Northern leadership under Gen. Ibrahim Babangida successfully smuggled Nigeria into the “Organisation of Islamic countries” OIC, in blatant disregard of Nigeria’s religious diversity.

Political experts have variously proposed a return to regionalism, and devolution of power’s as the best formula for the management of Nigeria’s diversity, within the framework of a negotiated constitution. But the North have consistently remained the greatest opposition to a restructured, equitable, and just Nigeria. The insistence on maintaining a lopsided status quo that is gradually sending the nation to an early grave, just because it favours them, is a clear demonstration of arrogance and insensitivity.
On one hand the North is loudest about maintaining a united Nigeria, on the other hand, they are the most intolerant of other Nigerians, which technically amounts to eating their cake, and still having it.

We do not need a crystal ball to realise, that the North’s present quest to return to power come 2007, is not because they have any positive agenda. The North is not and will probably never be repentant. Simply speaking their only agenda is to reconstitute the caliphate Army, and resume this time an unbroken run on power, with all the attendant negative consequences, I foresee Nigeria becoming like Sudan if the North by any act of omission is allowed to return to power. Nigerians are presently trapped between the devil and the deep blue sea, torn between the risk of power returning to the North, and President Olusegun Obasanjo’s 3rd term agenda. I dare say President Olusegun Obasanjo is a lesser evil. Most Nigerians prefer and are actually working towards Obasanjo’s handover to a technocrat from the South-south or Southeast, this would in any case be the greatest boost for our nascent democracy.
But if circumstances make this scenario impossible, I would rather President Obasanjo remains in office, rather than handing over to the caliphate North.
We must not forget so soon that the present unjust, unitary structure, exploitative, and miserably poor Nigeria we have today, bereft of electricity, pipe borne water, quality healthcare, and education is largely the making of the caliphate North. The North’s return to power would send us progressively back into the stone age. And withought any doubt, no Southerner will ever be allowed to smell the Aso rock seat again.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Dundalk, Republic of Ireland
Email:[email protected]

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January 31, 2006

Ohanaeze and the Igbo Leadership Question

by Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu (County Louth, Republic of Ireland) --- A friend of mine once asked me during the 2003 elections, “What does the Igbo want"? I answered by asking him, what he meant by that question? He retorted that the Igbo have been complaining of marginalisation,and have been championing the Igbo presidency project, but that the same Igbo remain the greatest obstacle to achieving a total de-marginalisation of Igbos,and achieving the much talked about Igbo presidency, because of what he called their lack of "fraternity, or unity of purpose".

This observation by a non Igbo rings true today as it did in 2003.In the aftermath of the Southern forum meeting in Enugu,the Igbo have been presented with an unprecedented opportunity to produce the President, or to largely determine who becomes the president come 2007, but once again what we are currently witnessing is a proliferation of Igbo organisations pursuing different agenda’s, and a crunching “second term” succession crisis in the Ohaeneze Ndigbo,the supposedly apex Igbo organisation .

The inescapable conclusion is that the Igbo elite, because of their greed and foolish opportunism, have still not come to terms with the reality of Nigeria.
Nigeria is a nation where ethnic or regional loyalty comes above everything else.But such a loyalty within any distinct group can only be achieved when the political class are united and demonstrate a sense of purpose. Agreed that in a democracy everybody cannot speak with one voice, but the nature and reality of Nigeria makes it imperative that any group that wants to be relevant or influential in Nigeria must to a large extent demonstrate a formidable cohesion and unity of purpose.

The North succeeded in dominating power for so long because of their unity and sense of purpose. The Southwest is known for their block votes and block support for one of their own, which even necessitated their not presenting a candidate in the 2003 elections in order to give block support to president Olusegun Obasanjo.
Even the South-South in spite of their glaring diversity, has become largely relevant in Nigeria today, because of their cohesion and unity of purpose, such that they are becoming increasingly more likely to clinch the 2007 Presidency slot.

Ironically the Igbo who are a largely homogenous group, unlike the North, and South-South are the most fragmented and disunited. The Igbo elite and political class must recognise the potentials and overwhelming advantage the Igbo have, because of their numerical strenght.They must play politics the Nigerian way. If the Igbo are united, there is no Nigerian president or power broker who can ignore them, because among other things they will need Igbo votes and Igbo support to access and remain in power, the process of negotiating for Igbo support will naturally lead to concessions, which will to a large extent resolve the marginalisation of the Igbo and guarantee a reciprocal gesture that will see the Igbo assuming the Presidency sooner or later. There is no magic about it, it is a natural law, that a united group or people will always influence, dominate, and or control the affairs in any given society. Those Igbo elites that are purportedly working for the North out of greed, are being stupid, because they stand to gain more in the Nigerian context from an Igbo president, than they would ever gain from a president of Northern extraction. The Yoruba’s have gained more today from a Yoruba presidency, than they would ever have gained from a Northern presidency.

Ohaeneze as a matter of urgency must convoque a meeting of stakeholders to resolve once and for all the succession crisis bedevilling it. rather than antagonise, they must liase with other Igbo organisations in a bid to assemble all of them under one umbrella to present a united front for the actualisation of the 2007 Presidency project. The Igbo parades a formidable array of highly qualified technocrats and achievers that can easily be sold to other Nigerians for the Presidency, among whom are Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala a former World bank vice President and current minister of finance, a world class incorruptible technocrat and achiever. Chief Emeka Anyaoku former commonwealth secretary general, world renowned diplomat, and statesman.Dr Dora Akunyili the incorruptible NAFDAC scribe who has waged an unprecedented and relentless war on fake drugs at personal risk to her life.Dr Oby Ezekwesili who has come to be known as “madam due process” because of a dogged and unrelenting struggle to whip-in due process into the Nigerian psyche.Dr Peter Odili the Rivers state Governor, medical doctor and technocrat, a high end achiever and unifier who has managed to bring peace to a multi-ethnic state.Dr Chimaraoke Nnamani the Enugu state Governor, a foetal surgeon, technocrat, and visionary, he achieved the singular and miraculous feat of being voted the best Governor by international development agencies, irrespective of the meagre resources available to Enugu state.

From the above list which unavoidably left out so many other Igbo wiz kids, it is obvious that the Igbo more than any other ethnic group, parade some of the best achievers in the current President Olusegun Obasanjo administration, it thereby follows that if the Igbo demonstrate a high level of unity, there is nothing that will stop an Igbo from mounting the presidency saddle come 2007.
Rather than a protracted power struggle between the South-East and South-South, there is the possibility of using one stone to kill two birds by presenting a consensus candidate between the South-South and South-East. Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,or Dr Peter Odili who are Igbos from the South-South will be perfect compromise canditates in that regards. Ohaeneze and other organisations can carry out opinion polls in the six geo-political zones on the above mentioned candidates and others,that will help them in determining who among them is the most electable,and make the job of a picking a single canditate easier.

All Igbo candidates whatever their personal ambitions or persuasion, must respect the choice of whoever gets nominated by the Ohaeneze and other allied Igbo organisations,so that the Igbo can for once present a single canditate that it can give 100% block support.This is the only way the Igbo, a majority group in Nigeria can reclaim their influence in the Nigerian project.The magic word is unity and cohesion.

Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
County Louth, Ireland
[email protected]

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