Countdown to US Polls...
Red Battle for the White House
By Louis Achi
Following the grand finale of the United states Democratic Party national convention over the weekend and the emergence of John Kerry as the party's presidential flag bearer in that country's impending presidential poll, the battle proper for the White House has gotten off the starting block. Kerry's Republican Party opponent is incumbent President George Bush who narrowly upstaged the Democrat's Al-Gore to clinch the world's number one job at the expiration of President Bill Clinton's tenure four years ago.
The fact that both dueling parties know that a second term in the US White House is not guaranteed makes the impending contest even more interesting. Fortunately, the Americans lack an oracle in the mould of Nigeria's Chief Tony Anenih, who could abruptly pronounce that 'no vacancy' exists in the Aso Rock (Nigeria's White House) - and make such 'prophecy' come to pass.
As the two gladiators square off, the trends of analysis focus on the issues that will shape the campaign and possibly ultimately decide the outcome of the presidential contest. Top on the issues include foreign policy, national security and the economy. Many analysts believe, rightly or wrongly, that this tripodal anvil will form the launching pad of America's next president.
As it is, it probably cannot be denied that a new form of leadership is to grapple with the nature of contemporary threats that confront the US. In a conventional military confrontation, engaging a hostile force is a more straightforward affair. But fighting a formless, virulent terrorist enemy is a horse of a different colour.
Along this line of situational analysis, many believe that in contrast to the terrorist challenges posed to the Bush presidency, late President Ronald Reagan (Republican) had an easier life confronting the defunct Soviet Union's menace of the cold war years. Then, the opponent was defined, a scenario facilitative of easier targeting and focus. While Bush trumps his stewardship on this score as his main credential for re-election across the globe, he is loathed more for his handling of the war on terrorism which he has used to alienate old friends of the US.
Interestingly, several polls show that many Americans are more trusting of Bush on national security issues than Kerry. This position which is traditionally a fluid one has gotten Kerry devoting a lot of his speech energy on defense and security. Verging somewhat on this issue, but focusing more on foreign policy, Kerry finds an interesting supporter in former US Airforce Chief of Staff during the first Gulf War and a former Bush loyalist, General Tony McPeak (rtd).
In a recent Democratic radio address supporting implementation of the September 11, 2001 Commission's recommendations, McPeak held that "The report of the 9/11 Commission makes this clear: Fighting terrorists alone just doesn't work. If our enemy hatches a terror plot in Rome, we will need help from the Italians. If German intelligence knows the whereabouts of an al Qaeda member, America must have that information."
Grumbling that Bush "fought against the very formation of the Commission and continues to the present moment to give it only a grudging cooperation," the former fighter pilot recalled he backed Bush in 2000 because he thought he would provide the leadership needed to face modern threats. But as disillusion set in, McPeak confessed, he changed his voter registration from Republican to independent and shifted his support to Kerry.
As the campaign hots up, while Bush beats his chest over his economic policies which he believes is leveraging America, Kerry holds that the election is about "American Values," and that life is about choices.
In all, whichever way the American presidential electoral cat jumps will have linkages to old American values of strength, security, loyalty to pledges and sustenance of the American dream. Speculations have it that were the election to be held in Europe or Middle East, Asia or even Africa today, Kerry will snag about 90 per cent of the popular votes. But then that is in Europe. In America proper, it may be a different ball game. From the history of American elections, the citizens' mood swings can determine outcomes.
But the main recurring question is: will Kerry upstage Bush? Americans hardly look to crystal balls for this kind of forecasts...
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