Countdown to US Polls...
The Bush/Kerry Battle
Kerry, Bush Battle for the Soul of America...
Perhaps in recent history of the United States presidential race, none has been as dramatic as the racing confrontation between incumbent President George Bush and Democratic Presidential candidate, Senator John Kerry. It is a game full of drama and suspense, all building up to a dramatic climax in November this year when the ultimate elections would hold to decide who runs the affairs of the world's most powerful nation-US.
But the preambles to the elections have begun to define the character of the candidates and the likely mindset of the American electorate. The democrats appear to be having the best of world, at least for now following the successful hosting of their convention which united all democrats in a war to rout out Bush from the White House. That was last week. The convention which started on Tuesday and ran through to Friday last week was a moving thriller. It was a season of drama, fun, backslapping and moving political speeches.
Senator John Kerry and his running mate Senator John Edwards kicked off the marathon campaign tour that last Friday with a rally in Boston, just hours after the finale of the Democratic National Convention, where Kerry accepted his party's presidential nomination. He was thus confirmed as the party's flagbearer.
Despite their late night last Thursday's long speeches, the candidates and their families waved enthusiastically to the crowd of cheering supporters.
For instance, kerry, looking like a man not tired, said as he waved to the large crowd of spectators and politicians:
"Wasn't I just standing up in front of you a few minutes ago? Where did the night go?" Kerry joked. "I'll tell you, when you're having fun. I'm longing to have my head hit a pillow, ladies and gentlemen."
After the rally, Kerry and Edwards again set off on a two-week, 3,500-mile, coast-to-coast trip, dubbed the "Believe in America" tour, that will take them to 21 states and 40 cities. In addition, the Democratic National Committee will launch a new ad campaign on their behalf.
Kerry said the election was about "American values," which he stressed were more than just words.
"They are the choices you make," he said adding:"I believe it is unacceptable to have kids shut out of schools because we have made the choice for people who make more than $200,000 a year to get a tax cut, but we don't have the money to leave the school doors open.
"Life is about choices; politics is about choices...Americans are playing by the rules while another group is writing the rules for themselves and leaving the rest of America out. We are going to change that around. Help is on the way for the average person in this country."
Edwards also heaped praises on Kerry's acceptance speech, telling the crowd that he hit "a home run ... [that] cleared the Green Monster" of Boston's Fenway Park and "is headed for the White House."
Interestingly, in that last Thursday's speech, Kerry had called the presidential contest "the most important election of our lifetime."
"America can do better, and help is on the way," he said repeatedly.
Speaking on certain key issues dear to Americans like wages, Kerry said that "wages are falling, health-care costs are rising" under the Bush administration, with a firm promise to reverse those trends.
"I will cut middle-class taxes. I will reduce the tax burden on small business. And I will roll back the tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals, who make over $200,000 a year, so we can invest in job creation, health care and education."
He also vowed not to privatize Social Security or cut benefits.
But there was one critical area that Kerry had to address very seriously. And that is in the area of national security.
With polls showing that many Americans have more trust in Bush on national security matters, much of Kerry's speech was therefore understandably devoted to defence and security.
"I defended this country as a young man, and I will defend it as president," he said after being introduced by former Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia, a fellow Vietnam veteran who lost both legs and an arm in the war.
He continued: "I will never hesitate to use force when it is required. Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response... I will never give any nation or international institution a veto over our national security.
"I will be a commander in chief who will never mislead us into war."
By building a stronger military and strengthening alliances around the world, Kerry said that the United States will be able to tell terrorists: "You will lose, and we will win."
He also said he would add more active duty troops and "end the backdoor draft of National Guard and reservists," referring to the extended tours those troops are serving.
Kerry's address - the finale of the convention - was enthusiastically received by the delegates, who interrupted him with more than two dozen standing ovations.
"I called my wife back home and told her, 'I think we found a president,' " said Michael Najarian, a delegate from Binghamton, New York.
Carol Summerlyn, a delegate from Portsmouth, Virginia, pronounced the speech "fantastic."
"I think it's clear we're all unified," she said. "This country is going to change." Surrounded by veterans and family. It was a family affair for Kerry in his hometown.
Crew mates from his swift boat in Vietnam spoke of his courage in battle.
Jim Rassmann said he wasn't asked to appear at the convention Thursday night but rather volunteered. He said it wasn't because Kerry saved his life during the war, but because he had witnessed his "bravery and leadership under fire."
"Any one of these 12 guys will tell you, in a tight situation, when your whole future - your whole life - depends on the decisions of one man, you can count on John Kerry," Rassmann said.
Kerry's daughters Vanessa and Alexandra and stepson Andre Heinz spoke of the qualities the four-term senator possesses that they said will make him a good president.
They also introduced a biographical film on the Democratic presidential nominee, narrated by actor Morgan Freeman and made with the advice of director Steven Spielberg.
Thursday's convention theme, "Stronger at Home, Respected in the World," was stressed in speeches from foreign policy experts, including former presidential hopeful and NATO Supreme Commander Gen. Wesley Clark, and Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Biden said he believed history would judge the Bush administration "harshly for the mistakes it has made" and opportunities it has "squandered" by not enlisting the help of U.S. allies.
Clark said he respected Kerry as a fellow soldier who went to war and as a veteran who returned home to fight for peace.
He said, "Anyone who tells you that one political party has a monopoly on the best defense of our nation is committing a fraud on the American people."
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Kerry would "use intelligence to shape policy, not twist intelligence to justify policy."
Bush...at the Beginning
The pre-election run in 2000 had put George Bush (jnr) on a collision with a high-flying eight-year-old President Bill Clinton's administration.
The democratic government had done well during the two terms of Clinton and the world had hoped the 2000 presidential election would be a walk over for the democrats. But Bush was to emerge to change all that. Sen. John McCain representing Arizona had engaged Bush in a fierce primary challenge in early 2000, but he withdrew two days after a disappointing performance in the important primaries. Bush faced then-Vice President Al Gore in the general election, and the election was anything but smooth, with Florida hanging in the balance.
After 36 contentious days of vote recounting and legal maneuvering in Florida, Bush won a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision that ended the recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court. The decision effectively made him the president-elect.
The Bush Administration
Once in office, Bush put aside the Florida controversy and pushed for the passage of his tax cut bill and education plan. He signed into law modified versions of both.
On foreign policy, he pursued a markedly different approach from his predecessor, staying out of the Middle East and rejecting a series of international agreements. Bush pulled out of the Kyoto global-warming treaty, a biological weapons agreement, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the International Criminal Court, and he withdrew the United States from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, a cornerstone of Cold War foreign policy.
Then the September 11 attacks transformed Bush's presidency. Both Democrats and Republicans praised Bush for his handling of the events and he made a well-received speech to Congress, notable for this blunt line: "Whether we bring our enemies to justice or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be done."
In 2002, Bush delivered his famous "axis of evil" speech, in which he labeled Iraq, Iran and North Korea as threats to the United States and the world.
He lay to rest the Cold War doctrine of containment, replacing it with a new national security strategy of pre-emption, which holds that the United States must not let its enemies strike first.
"After September 11, the doctrine of containment just doesn't hold any water, as far as I'm concerned," he said. "We must deal with threats before they hurt the American people again."
As 2002 ended, Bush appeared ready to test his new doctrine in Iraq. Despite the lack of international and U.N. support (but with the backing of Congress and a majority of the U.S. public), Bush launched a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Having seized control of Baghdad in April 2003, Bush declared an end to major combat in early May.
Yet as U.S. military personnel continue to die in Iraq and the cost of the rebuilding continues to escalate, Bush's challengers and critics have attempted to make Bush's handling of the war a campaign issue.
Bush took the first formal step in his re-election bid in May 2003 by filing with the Federal Election Commission, a move that allows him to start building his campaign structure and raising funds. His campaign raised more than $34 million in the second quarter, which is more than the combined total raised by his potential Democratic opponents in the same time period.
For months, Bush tried to remain above the political fray, enjoy the benefits of being an uncontested incumbent and wait to formally declare his candidacy.
Politics, Bush said at a news conference in July 2003, will come "later on." For now, "I will continue doing my job. And my job will be to work to make America more secure."
While Bush has mentioned national security as a priority in his re-election bid, he also has acknowledged that the economy needs attention.
"The American people will decide whether or not I deserve a second term," Bush told reporters in May 2003. "In the meantime I am focusing my attention today on ... helping people find work. And that's where I'm going to be for a while."
Private-sector payrolls, measured on a year-over-year basis, fell for 20 months, the longest labor-market slump since World War II. The unemployment rate rose from four percent in 2000 when Bush took office to 6.2 percent in July 2003, the highest in nearly a decade. The numbers of jobless could make Bush potentially vulnerable on the economy, the same issue that helped then-Gov. Bill Clinton defeat his father.
Democrats in Congress have blamed rising deficits on Bush's tax cuts. The $455 billion deficit in 2003 was a record in sheer dollar terms, though not as a percentage of the overall economy. But the president has insisted that the war on terrorism and Homeland Security needs, along with overspending by Congress, also have fueled the deficit.
Although he generally avoided talk of the 2004 election, Bush occassionally did show that he was focused on the race well before his campaign aired its first ads after Sen. John Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination in March. While vacationing at his Texas ranch in August 2003, Bush appeared irritated during a news conference by a reporter's suggestion that the California recall election was "the biggest political story in the country."
"Isn't there, like, a presidential race coming up?" he said.
The Road to the Presidency
For Bush, the road to the White House began in his adopted home state of Texas. Born in Connecticut, the oldest of four siblings, Bush moved to Texas with his family when he was two.
His first bid for office was a congressional race in 1978. He lost to the incumbent. He returned to his oil businesses, but then the price of oil slumped in the early 1980s. Bush's company was rescued from financial ruin twice by mergers, the second time in 1986 by Harken Oil and Gas. The deal allowed Harken to purchase a company with some potential at a good price, plus put the son of the vice president on its board of directors.
After helping with his father's 1988 presidential campaign, Bush returned to Texas. In March 1989, he became part owner of the Texas Rangers, buying a two percent share for $600,000 in borrowed money. He became the managing general partner, the front man for the team.
In 1994, he returned to politics, running for Texas governor against incumbent Ann Richards. Ann had memorably criticized his father at the 1992 Democratic National Convention with this line: "Poor old George. He can't help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth."
With his father's help, Bush raised more money than any candidate for any office in Texas history. He ran on a four-point program: education, juvenile justice, tort reform and welfare reform. Other items on the Bush agenda passed the conservative litmus test: making it legal to carry concealed weapons, supporting laws against sodomy and backing the death penalty.
Bush defeated Richards, a victory that coincided with the Republican takeover of Congress. He acted on all of his four campaign promises during his first term and when he won re-election in 1998 with 68 percent of the vote, talk of a run for the presidency was constant.
His baseball investment also paid off handsomely about that time. He placed his interest in the team in a trust during his first gubernatorial term. In 1998, Bush and his fellow partners sold the team, with Bush netting more than $14 million.
Billing himself as a "compassionate conservative," Bush entered the presidential race in 1999, emphasizing tax cuts and changes in federal education policy.
But a message wasn't the only thing Bush brought into the race. He had a record $70 million in the bank before the first primary. Due to his prodigious fund-raising, Bush declined federal matching funds during the primary season - a move which exempted him from spending limits imposed on candidates who accept matching funds.
His fund-raising advantage caused several of his opponents to drop out before the first primary. He eventually raised a record-setting $193 million by the end of the campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Finally, the president called for Congress to make his tax cuts permanent to further drive the economy.
The government's economic growth figures, released Friday, indicated that the gross domestic product figures dropped in the second quarter ending June 30 to three percent, from 5.4 percent at the end of the first quarter in March.
Still, Bush kept his message positive. "We have emerged from a period of great challenge," he said. "Terrorist attacks, recession and corporate scandal hurt the wallets of millions of Americans, but these shocks to our economy did not damage our spirit."
"We're a hardworking and resilient nation," he said. "Our economy is on a rising path, and together, we will bring our prosperity to every corner of America."
Assessing the Bush's Policies
... On Foreign Policy
A former Air Force chief of staff and one-time "Veteran for Bush" said Saturday that America's foreign relations for the first three years of President Bush's term have been "a national disaster" but that the president's Democratic rival was "up to the task" of rebuilding.
Retired Gen. Tony McPeak, the Air Force chief of staff during the first Gulf War, delivered the Democratic radio address supporting implementation of the 9/11 commission's recommendations for national security.
"As president, John Kerry will not waste a minute in bringing action on the reforms urged by the 9/11 commission," McPeak said of the Massachusetts senator nominated by the Democrats this week. "And he will not rest until America's defenses are strong."
The president, on the other hand, "fought against the very formation of the commission and continues to the present moment to give it only grudging cooperation, no matter what he says," the general said. "Why should we believe he will do anything to institute the needed change?"
Administration officials have said that Bush could approve some of the commission's suggested changes by early next week.
McPeak, a former fighter pilot who campaigned for Bob Dole in 1996 as well as Bush in 2000, said Bush's inability to craft a true allied coalition was a serious deficiency.
"The report of the 9/11 commission makes this clear: Fighting terrorists alone just doesn't work," he said. "If our enemy hatches a terror plot in Rome, we will need help from the Italians. If German intelligence knows the whereabouts of a senior al Qaeda member, America must have that information."
Instead, he said, Bush has "alienated our friends, damaged our credibility around the world, reduced our influence to an all-time low in my lifetime, given hope to our enemies."
McPeak said he backed Bush in 2000 because he "had hoped this president could provide" the leadership needed to face modern threats. But disillusionment, he said, has led him to change his voter registration from Republican to independent and shift his support to Kerry.
"The real deal for me is not whether a strategy or a plan or an idea is Republican or Democrat, but whether it makes us safer," he said. "And it means an awful lot to me that John Kerry fought for his country as a young man."
"We who have some experience - who have seen war close up and sent troops to battle - know that victory is not won by single combat," he continued. "War is not like that. War is a team sport.
"We built the team that won World War II. We put together the great team that won the Cold War. That's why what has happened over the last three years is such a tragedy, such a national disaster. Rebuilding the team won't be easy."
Bush: Economy 'gaining strength'
President Bush lauded the economy Saturday in his weekly radio address, pointing to his tax cuts as a prime source of the gains.
"Because of my policy of strengthening the economy while enforcing spending discipline in Washington, we remain on pace to reduce the deficit by half in the next five years," he said.
The president also said government estimates of the budget deficit are shrinking - as much as $100 billion for the 2004 and 2005 forecasts combined.
The estimate, however, still showed an increase, up to $445 billion in 2004 from $374 billion last year, according to the administration's mid-year review.
Bush inherited a budget surplus of nearly $500 billion.
Bush pushed for more free trade agreements "to open up foreign markets" to American corporations.
"On a level playing field, American workers and farmers and entrepreneurs can compete with anybody, anytime, anywhere," he said.
He also called for legal changes that would make it more difficult for average citizens to sue companies, a national energy policy and "sensible regulations" on corporations so they "can focus on satisfying their customers and not bureaucrats in government."
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll yesterday showed Senator John Kerry with 47 per cent of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46 per cent. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Our latest update shows that voters remain evenly divided between Kerry and Bush when it comes to the economy. Bush retains a very modest advantage on the issues of national defence and the war on terror. Results on both issues are essentially unchanged over the past week.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say it is more important to insure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy than to bring home our troops as soon as possible. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 39 per cent take the opposite view and believe that bringing home the troops is a higher priority.
Early last week, results showed that 45 per cent of voters gave the President good or excellent marks for handling the situation in Iraq. Those numbers are the President's best since mid-April.
Today's results are based upon survey interviews conducted Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights. Only one-third of the interviews were conducted following Kerry's speech. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the speech.
Following a review of our tracking data through July 15, the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows Kerry with a modest lead, 227-208. There are 103 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
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