'Segenomics 101'
By Tunji Lardner
It is now clear that there is an economic reform process afoot in Nigeria. After desultorily pottering around for the first four years of a disappointing first term, it seems that President Obasanjo is beginning to focus on the very necessary task of taking the errant Nigerian economy by the scruff of its under-achieving, dysfunctional neck and shaking it into attention. President Obasanjo's modus operandi it seems is to work through his economic team that has over the last year or so, in words and deeds outlined the framework of this necessarily traumatic makeover for Nigeria. It has to get worse before it gets better, a lot worse.
The specific details of this grand plan to restructure the entire Nigerian economy is captured in the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and its devolved sister strategy for the States, SEEDS. It is assumed that these two economic empowerment and poverty reduction strategies have in their respective cross-hairs the United Nation's Millennium Development Goals as the developmental targets to be actualized within specific timelines.
One lingering critique of this blueprint is that in the typically Nigerian policy rationale, it is long on diagnostics and short on the actual "how to" treatment; especially in setting what some critics have deemed unrealistic job creation targets. It is easy to quibble about this plan, especially because it represents a full frontal assault on our collective reactionary and recumbent psyches. Not since the Vision 2010 document has the public intellectual space been presented with a homespun economic blueprint that seems to make sense. But more, unlike the 2010 document, this one seems to have some teeth and they are beginning to bite.
Clearly at the Macro-economic level some the enduring challenges of the Nigerian political-economy are now being addressed, but not without the expected institutional resistance and inertia to change. But more than that, we are witnessing a reactionary groundswell of opposition from the entrenched predatory, rent-seeking class that constitutes much of the Nigerian elite. The flap about "Dollar Ministers" was one such clear shot across the bow and there will be more invidious attempts to subvert and ultimately abort this brave attempt to put the political economy aright.
So at least from the oppositional forces, it is clear that the battle lines have been drawn and that we are in a war, and even as we speak, there is a massing of their dark armies set to do battle against the reform process. Against this ominous backdrop, what is not so clear from the reformist camp is the sounding of the reveille, a call to arms, mustering all positive change agents to battle these small but powerful elite. Sure there are battle plans clearly embedded in the various macro-economic policies being enunciated by the so called "dream team," but these only serve to establish short-term tactical battle field advantage.
The ongoing furor over the publication of public accounts and disbursements to State and Local Governments as well as the Ministries, is one such tactical victory that will soon ebb if there is no clearly articulated advocacy strategy designed to get total public buy in and support for the larger and as yet articulated reform agenda.
What is clearly needed here, and as contextualized within a militaristic scenario is "a sustained campaign for the hearts and minds of the Nigerian public" in support of the reform agenda. But the obvious question that pops up is how can you get the Nigerian public on your side given the well-founded cynicism and mistrust of government? The answer to this is actually the easy part. The more difficult challenge to me is really the lack of a clearly defined Presidential "Vision," yes... that "vision thing."
What we seem to have is a series of well intended but desultory initiatives dotting the public intellectual and communications landscape, with no coherent and logical strategy to connect the dots, explain the various policy trajectories and ultimately help lay Nigerians of all stripes to recognize the patterns evolving. This pattern recognition function is at once the responsibility of the President enunciating his vision, with his team fleshing out and explaining post facto, what the extent, depth, breadth and direction of this vision. At this point, the president must be seen to publicly throw his considerable weight behind his reform agenda by clearly identifying with his field commanders and shielding them from the brunt of the ongoing assault.
Ordinarily, these elements would have been contained in the political party manifesto, and would be the basis for "Joe Public" voting whichever way, but clearly this is not the case. A peek into that veritable nest of vipers also known as the PDP sitting atop an equally festering cesspool of other political parties, suggests that we better look elsewhere for vision...venom perhaps, but clearly no vision.
However, in the absence of that 'vision thing," it is still possible to engage the Nigerian public soliciting their support for the reform process as it unfolds with potential long term benefits to the country. First things first, the reform process has to be given a name that contains a distinct and easily recognizable element tying it to the master author. I had mulled over various versions of a catchy name for this ineffable "thing."
"Matthew-nomics?" Nah...too biblical, we are dealing with harsh and secular realities here, and besides we have enough religious detritus clogging the public intellectual space
"Aremu-nomics?" Nah...way too provincial, it evokes the image of a pastoral president with hoe slung across his shoulder. Not the kind of image we want to peddle at Davos.
"Babaiyabo-nomics?" Nah... too wordy and the unwittingly shared authorial credit might be a problem for Iyabo, currently a state commissioner.
"Segenomics" Hmmmm... has a nice avuncular ring to it; it immediately resonates with our fond sobriquet "Uncle Sege" as well as the economic dimensions of the reforms.
Think "Reganomics, Thatcherism or even Marxism." In a culture driven more by personalities than by policy, a strong identification with Presidency, stamps the imprimatur of Olusegun Obasanjo and the force of personality that it brings. I think this is it. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Segenomics!
Next, what are the key elements of Segenomics? I see the following from my pedestrian perch as Joe Public.
The Anti-corruption crusade-this being the generic handle for the various transparency, accountability and full disclosure initiatives and institutions (EITI, PWYP, ICPC, EFCC etc) that is fitfully being rolled out.
Privatization and economic liberalization -the divestiture of government ownership and participation in various economically unsound investments.
Public Service reforms - "Right sizing," Monetization, Service Delivery Optimization etc.
Private Sector Financial Reforms - CBN's new Macroeconomic regulatory regime process.
Public Sector Financial Reforms - New fiscal and taxation polices, new procurement and accounting procedures, new budgeting and revenue management regimes, Debt management, foreign reserves and balance of payment management and other macro-economic policies. Foreign Direct Investment- Seeking to attract foreign investments.
What are the forces driving Segenomics?
Reality Bites Hard-The stark reality that over 70% of Nigeria's 133 million people subsist on less that the equivalent of $1 a day, with all the attendant challenges and interlocking socio-economic as well as psychological problems of chronic poverty. The latest Human Development Report for 2004 sadly underscores our poverty and lack of human development. We currently rank 151st out of 177 countries, thus qualifying as a low human development countries, holding firm right there with Haiti, Rwanda, Chad and Djobouti. Furthermore, in 2002, 44.6% of our population was under the age of fifteen-this is the constituency that we must serve and protect. We have to get off the floor; otherwise we will FALL off the floor!
Globalization and our malcontents- The reality of globalization in the age of knowledge based economics and the barefaced fact that Nigeria cannot presently compete in global economic space. Tied to this is our growing strategic importance as a global supplier of oil and soon to come the LNG boom. Our global customers have a vested interest in our economic reform and survival. Internally we also slowly awakening from our collective denials about ourselves and coming to terms with our much diminished role in the world. But we have not been sufficiently galvanized to collectively do something about it.
The networked global society-the aggregated forces of technology and globalization necessarily means a recasting and a recalibration of all existing insular attitudes, institutions, processes and privileges. The world is increasingly bearing upon us and to paraphrase the South African pre-independence slogan, "we have to adapt or die."
Uncle Sege's Legacy- This revolution started five years too late .The President is at this point sufficiently motivated to want to leave some sort of a meaningful and lasting legacy behind. This reform process is a key aspect of that desire and tied to this must be the vexing question of who succeeds him. I can only hope that the President with a keen eye on history will choose wisely and carefully. Certainly this present rogue's gallery of the usual suspects jockeying for 2007 doesn't cut it. With talk about a dark horse candidate emerging from the shadows, I prefer the imagery of a bright luminous steed galloping forth ahead of a new generation of leaders fully equipped to deal with the multifarious challenges of leading Nigeria out of bondage into the 21st century. I really would like to see Nigeria beyond 2007 being led by an enlightened, progressive and de-militarized civilian president.
I think that the reforms are necessarily a good thing that should have a shelf life way beyond 2007. I look forward to the opportunity of coining the next version of Segenomics.
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