THE recent unity meeting of the Afenifere and Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) was timely, and many Nigerians outside the Yoruba fold watched it with interest. Of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria, the Yoruba political class is the only one that has clear ideological and actively opposed camps. The north also used to have the conservatives, who were offshoots of the Ahmadu Bello political school on the one hand, and the radical, quasi Islamic-Socialists of which Mallam Aminu Kano was the patriarch. The Aminu Kano political camp effectively died off after the Second Republic. Whatever remains of it now is a mere pretension.
But in Yoruba land, the two camps that have been locked in a fierce power struggle since the beginning of Nigeria’s political history, are still alive and kicking. In fact, recent events have shown that the old mainstream has been overthrown by its former underdog challengers. For the purpose of our exercise here, we will use the terms: “the regionalists” to describe the Afenifere, the former mainstream founded by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and “the nationalists” for the opposing group that has emerged under the defined umbrella of the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE).
We do not imply that the Afenifere camp is less nationalistic than its counterpart. “Nationalism”, like beauty, is often in the eye of the beholder. The Awoists argue that the best way to build a nation is to start from the peripheries, or the foundation. They presume that the regional and ethnic groupings “own Nigeria” and should therefore collectively decide the manner of national union suitable for Nigeria. This argument is, by no means, a hesitation about the idea of being in the Nigerian union.
ON the other hand, those we have dubbed the “nationalists” argue that the best way the Yoruba could achieve their potentials in the Nigerian nation is to aspire to become full members of the Nigerian ruling elite who inherited power from the British colonialists. Regional focus is viewed as self-isolation. The problem, however, is that being in the so-called “national bandwagon” without being from the north meant accepting playing the second or third fiddle. The north, it was assumed, would always be in the driving seat of the nation’s politics. The historical struggle between the “regionalists” and the “nationalists” in Yoruba land ensued because the “regionalists” firmly and often violently rebuffed all efforts by the “nationalists” to create a political foothold in Yoruba land for the nation’s ruling establishment. The “regionalists” saw this effort as a “betrayal” of the Yoruba cause and treated culprits as “traitors” especially when such culprits were Awoist deserters.
Funny enough, in spite of the severe punishments visited on Awoist deserters after every major election or political season since independence, the “nationalist” camp continued to swell and the Awoist camp continued to deplete. The nunc dimitis finally came for the Afenifere when Nigeria defied Yoruba resistance and put General Olusegun Obasanjo in the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 1999. Obasanjo, though a military politician, is fiercely anti-Afenifere. In fact, he is the greatest facilitator of the “nationalist” camp in Yoruba land. He is the boldest living actualisation of the argument that the Yoruba’s best path to political and economic fulfilment in Nigeria is through playing in the federal arena, even if as a stooge. He became Nigeria’s two-time head of state by playing the stooge for the ruling class until after the 2003 elections when he decided to cast off the puppet’s costume.
OPINIONS have been proffered over the fall from grace to grass of the Afenifere in Yoruba land. Some have said that the camp became too dictatorial, cultist, gerontocratic, and therefore no longer hooked to the people, its supposed power base.
Secondly, the Awoist essence of the Afenifere movement had started waning. The magnet had started losing its gravitational pull. But by far, the most important factor that lost power for the Awoists was the dinner they had with the “devil”. Obasanjo has never hidden his intention to dislodge the Awoists from Yoruba land. Perhaps the only people who underestimated the danger were the Afenifere leadership under Chief Abraham Adesanya. The leadership had already started disintegrating after the Alliance for Democracy (AD) primaries in Ibadan in 1998, where Chief Olu Falae was chosen in place of Chief Bola Ige, the founder of the AD, the political offshoot of Afenifere. Ige subsequently rebelled against the group and joined Obasanjo’s government against its rules. One by one, the Afenifere leaders nominated their children and close relations to Obasanjo for jobs in his government. The final stroke came when Afenifere decided to support Obasanjo for the Presidency while asking the Yoruba to vote for the AD governors during the 2003 polls. This amounted to eating your cake and hoping to have it right back.
Obasanjo took no prisoners when he struck at Afenifere's open flank. The casualty count was grim. Ige was dead and could do nothing for the AD. Afenifere lost in all six Yoruba states. Even the Lagos State that the AD managed to retain has, through Governor Bola Tinubu, announced to the world that it is not an Afenifere government, as AD was different from Afenifere! Such a statement was inconceivable from an AD governor in 2000. Right now, the Afenifere leadership is in disarray, as Chief Adesanya has been indisposed and recuperating in an infirmary abroad.
HOWEVER, all this may not necessarily mean the end of the road for the Afenifere, some have said. If anything, the victorious “nationalists” have not unfolded to the Yoruba any credible alternative to the tried and tested Awoist formula. Of the five PDP governors who came to power in 2003, only Governor Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State has shown the vision and leadership that is capable of making a difference. Daniel has since announced himself as being Afenifere, not AD! The impression is given in certain quarters that Afenifere would rise again. How this would happen is something we'll wait to see.
The YCE, though now seemingly on top in the South-West, appears to recognise the wisdom in not writing off Afenifere, and hence its decision to engage the group in the recent reconciliatory meeting in Ibadan. It is a wise disposition because the Yoruba are now at a crossroad between the past and the future in at least two important ways. One of them is to manage the seeming paradigm shift in the Yoruba mainstream to avoid unnecessary muscle-flexing in the streets as we eye the magic year 2007 when political power will shift out of Yoruba land. It is important to the Yoruba and the nation that power shift 2007 is done in such a way as to ensure the growth and stability of Nigeria.
It seems that President Olusegun Obasanjo might be leaving behind some important legacies, especially in the economic aspects of our lives. These legacies, especially the reforms, need to be furthered. If power shift is wrongly applied, we might find ourselves back to where we were before the reforms. Care has to be taken to avoid shifting power into the hands of the same people who brought Nigeria to her knees.
All eyes are on the two Yoruba mainstreams to unite and help Obasanjo and Nigeria to make a wise decision.
