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IBB: The duel over Abiola, June 12
THOMAS IMONIKHE,
Deputy Political Editor
TWO
weighty statements from unexpected quarters recently seem to corroborate the
age-long dictum that in politics there are neither permanent friends nor enemies
but permanent interest.
Nobel Laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka had
during a visit to Kaduna, the administrative hub of Northern Nigeria, fired the
first salvo when he asked former military president Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi
Babangida (IBB) to apologise to Nigerians for his "sins," especially his
regime’s annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential poll believed to have been
won by the late Bashorun Moshood Kasimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola.
He argued that such apology by Babangida
was a pre-condition for the Minna-born general to join the presidential race and
canvass for votes ahead of the general elections in 2007.
According to Soyinka, "this (apology) will
be the beginning of an attempt to wipe the slate clean. Nigerians are kind and
very accommodating. After that (the apology) he will then start to present his
credentials as a candidate, like a new applicant," the Nobel Laureate was quoted
as saying.
His demand for public apology by IBB not
only sent shock waves among human rights and pro-democracy activists in the
country but left political observers stunned as to the real intention of Prof.
Soyinka.
Picking holes in the Nobel Laureate’s view
point, the national convener of the United Action for Democracy (UAD) and
Lagos-based lawyer, Mr. Bamidele Aturu said the cancellation of the mandate
freely given to Abiola by over 14 million Nigerian voters transcends a mere
public apology.
Babangida and other rulers whether
military or civilian, whether serving or retired, Aturu contended, must account
for their stewardship while in office before they can offer themselves again for
public service.
As opinions remain divided on Soyinka’s
point of view, the younger brother of MKO Abiola, Mubashiru threw his weight
behind the presidential aspiration of IBB. He did not only express his support
wholeheartedly, but accepted to be a patron of "IBB Vision 2007," an outfit
campaigning for the emergence of Babangida as President Olusegun Obasanjo’s
successor in Aso Rock after May 29, 2007.
Though Mubashiru has no visible clout,
politically, in Ogun State, his open support for the candidacy of IBB sent many
tongues wagging as to the actual influence of Babangida in Ogun State and indeed
the South-West geo-political zone. Both Mubashiru and Prof. Soyinka hail from
Ogun State just like President Obasanjo and the late MKO Abiola.
However, reactions to Mubashiru’s
declaration for the IBB camp were swift and venomous. For instance, the
pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, while dismissing the
backing described Mubashiru as a mole in the Abiola family, who does not believe
in the mandate freely given to Bashorun Abiola by Nigerians on June 12, 1993.
Beyond the current virulent attacks on
Mubashiru by Afenifere and human rights activists, the questions on the
lips of some political analysts are: "Will Babangida defeat his political
opponents and pick majority votes of delegates from the South-West during the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primaries? If he emerges PDP flag
bearer, will he subdue other presidential candidates from opposition parties to
clinch the popular votes of the Yoruba nation in a free and fair electoral
contest in 2007?
According to political observers, answers
to the posers above would depend on the capability of IBB, his campaigners and
backers to thoroughly address the profound issues thrown up by the annulment of
the June 12, 1993 polls.
This they maintained, is imperative not
only because the cancellation ultimately led to the death of Bashorun Abiola
while in Federal Government custody, after declaring himself president but would
help to resolve what is considered the greatest puzzle in the nation’s political
history.
According to such analysts, Babangida
should be brave enough to unmask the prime actors including those from the
South-West who allegedly masterminded the annulment at least in the interest of
posterity. Such revelation and possible apology by Babangida they opined, was
capable of mitigating the current anger among the human rights and pro-democracy
activists most of who are based in the South West over the issue.
But a combination of both steps may fall
short of expectations of some Yoruba like Chief Gani Fawehinmi (SAN), leader of
Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC), Dr. Fredrick Fasehun, activist, Dr. Beko
Ransome-Kuti and the Oodua Youth Forum (OYF).
For instance, Chief Fawehinmi who is also
the national chairman of the National Conscience Party (NCP) has promised to
challenge IBB in the presidential election if the NCP picks him (Gani) as its
candidate.
Fawehinmi’s possible contest is expected
to split the bloc votes that would have been won by IBB since the South-West
will unlikely present another presidential hopeful.
The reason is not far fetched. President
Obasanjo, who hails from the zone will complete his second term in May 2007.
Similarly, Babangida and his loyalists
must be bracing up to contend with threats by OPC and OYF to physically prevent
him from campaigning in the South-West.
"An average Yoruba youth is earnestly
waiting for open campaign of IBB 2007 project in the South Western states before
people will see the mother of all resistance and street protest that will
consume all enemies of June 12 in our democracy," a recent statement issued by
OYF publicity secretary Mr. Nurudeen Olawale warned.
Other analysts have, however predicted
that Babangida could actually spring a surprise and garner majority of the
popular votes from the zone if he aligns himself properly with the agenda of the
Yoruba nation which includes Sovereign National Conference (SNC), fiscal
Federalism and an end to politics of exclusiveness.
Indeed, the trouncing of the Alliance for
Democracy (AD) by the PDP in last year’s general elections has been interpreted
by political observers as signalling the death knell for politics of
isolationism in which the zone has been entrenched since the First Republic.
The PDP, against all permutations defeated
the AD in Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo and Oyo states while the latter only retained
Lagos State. The AD had posted victory in all six states during the 1999 general
polls.
Despite the current odds said to be
standing between Babangida and the soul of South West politics, observers have
acknowledged on-going covert but steady progress being recorded by the IBB
supporters in the zone in recent times.
Apart from retired generals like one time
Communications Minister Maj. Gen. Tajudeen Olarewaju (rtd) former Lagos State
military governor Brig. Gen. Raji Rasaki (rtd) who are leading the campaigners,
most of IBB’s former appointees including ex-sports minister Chief Alex Akinyele
and Chief Duro Onabule, Babangida’s former Chief Press Secretary are reportedly
selling the candidacy of their former boss.
The Babangida phenomenon is said to have
caught on with some prominent members of the factionalised AD, among them,
ex-governors, their deputies and former members of the National and states
Houses of Assembly who felt they were rigged out by the PDP in the 2003 general
elections.
Even some serving members of the National
Assembly from the AD have, according to sources, switched their political
allegiance to the IBB camp. The enormous resources and influence of the former
military president is said to have swayed the opposition easily.
Whether IBB will get an upper hand in the
envisaged titanic political battle ahead would also be determined by the potency
of the arsenals of his opponents notably Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and
former military administrator of Lagos State Brig. Gen. Mohamed Buba Marwa (rtd).
Atiku Abubakar is being backed by
experienced and tested loyalist like Chief Lamidi Adedibu, the acclaimed
strongman of Ibadan politics, as well as his colleagues in the defunct Peoples
Democratic Movement (PDM). The movement was the political machine of the late
Maj. Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and was instrumental to Bashorun Abiola’s victory
at the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential primaries in Jos,
Plateau State in 1993.
Also, the IBB foot soldiers under the
aegis of IBB Solidarity Movement of Nigeria (IBB SOLMON) which has its grip on
the South-West have to fight the political battle of their life to contain the
mileage already covered by pro-Marwa campaigners in the zone.
But despite the odds against and for the
IBB camp, analysts are quick to point out that President Obasanjo holds the ace
on who gets majority votes of delegates from the zone during the PDP
presidential primaries.
Obasanjo, they argued, would throw his
weight behind a candidate of his choice and who will be willing and ready to
continue implementing the social-economic reforms already embarked upon by the
government.
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