Kaduna: Will Power Shift?
Kaduna has continued to bustle in some kind of innocence. With beautiful plains, well-manicured interiors, rows of decorative trees lining most of the street sides, and the residents going about their businesses in a way that hardly betrays any foreboding sense of danger, the political capital of former Northern Region would confound a visitor searching for signs of past violence for which the city is notorious. But even then, Kaduna remains a combustible land. The quest for opportunity to rule the state by people of the southern Kaduna who feel short-changed so far in the power matrix of the multi-ethnic state by the more politically sagacious northern Kaduna people, is yet a potential threat to peace. As 2007 election draws closer, Lanre Issa-Onilu who was in Kaduna, presents the unfolding political contentions currently simmering in the volatile state.
The overwhelming peace currently reigning in Kaduna State is reassuring no doubt. But the drumbeat of crisis is not totally inaudible. And if there is any hope that the current peace would not snap soon is because the Kaduna State Governor, Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi has succeeded in building confidence and trust among the various ethnic and religious groups in the state. But no one can however guarantee the life span of this peace until the 2007 gubernatorial election is done with. Presently, the obvious threat to peace here is the coming gubernatorial election. The people of Southern Kaduna are again making a strong case for the number one position at the Kaduna Government House.
Activities have peaked. The Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU) has been spearheading the struggle to ensure that the northern Kaduna yields the governorship position to a southern candidate in 2007. Nothing is being left to chance. SOKAPU on its part is already mobilising the various ethnic groups that constitute the South for this purpose. But leaders of this union know they can only go as far as the northern part allows them. The North has the number, which some people believe is ratio two to one. So, if election will remain the strict determinant of who occupies the office of governor in Kaduna State, then the South can as well forget about ever getting there. So, doubts are being raised and fears are apparent. But the SOKAPU president, Mr. Aboki Galadima told THISDAY that should the Northern Kaduna fail to concede the seat in 2007, then the South will seek to be separated from the present Kaduna State. "If we dwell on number, then we will say that we will be on our own. If you don't recognise us, why should I be part of you," Galadima said. Notwithstanding the threat from SOKAPU, the union, knowing the limitation of its posturing, has decided to be matured about the way it pursues this agitation. The union is resting its hope on the current understanding that exists between Makarfi and the people of southern Kaduna. The governor has enjoyed massive support from the south, especially in the 2003 governorship election.
This support according to Aboki was informed by the confidence they have in Makarfi as a result of the way he has been conducting the affairs of the state. Aboki explained: "We now have indigenous traditional rulers who now form a council and they sit with the Emir from the northern part. That is a healthy motivation. Now, you begin to see rural electrification and roads going into villages. Only three weeks ago government commissioned the electricity project in my own village. When we were growing up and even as a senior civil servant, I never thought we would have electricity in my generation. But we now have light in the village and I drive on a tarred road to my village. We are saying that good governance can bring people together and endear individual to the generality of the people."
It is however not only Aboki that is showing this implicit confidence on the incumbent government over the attention it has given to every part of the state, the Kaduna State secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Reverend Joseph Hayab, also confirmed to THISDAY that no part of the state has been neglected by the present administration. They both however insist that for whatever it is worth, power should shift to the South in 2007. "Let us be honest, if you have been following the trend of events in this state, it is only governor Makarfi who has been able to incorporate the southern part. All others neglected and abandoned the people as if they are not citizens of this state," said Hayab.
But notwithstanding the Makarfi's equity, the CAN secretary insists that the southern Kaduna must be allowed to rule the state in 2007: "If all of us are citizens of this state, if all of us own this place, then everybody here should be qualified to be governor. It should not be seen as a birthright of a section of the state. We should all be equal, in this regard, in the state in particular and in the country," said the CAN secretary.
To most leaders of southern Kaduna, Makarfi holds the ace to their aspiration to produce a governor in 2007. This is also the belief of both SOKAPU and CAN. They are of the view that Makarfi should see 2007 as payback time for the support he has been enjoying from the people of southern Kaduna. But as things are presently in Kaduna politics, the issue may not be this simple.
It is obvious that Makarfi too has his limitations over this matter. He has often reiterated his desire to abide by the decisions of the party. It is apparent that the various political parties in the state have major roles to play in this issue of power shift. Makarfi may choose to give his personal support to this cause, but who says the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to whom the governor belong will also just buy in to this request. For instance, as of now, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) has no such zoning arrangement as far as Kaduna State is concerned. The Deputy National Welfare Officer of the party, Alhaji Muhammadu Murtala told THISDAY that ANPP sees Kaduna as one and will allow any interested and capable candidate to bid for the governorship ticket of the party in 2007.
"We are not interested in such division. You cannot stop anybody from contesting as long as that person is sellable and capable politically. In the northern part as well as the southern part, we have credible people that can contest. The candidate is important. What can he offer? It is not tribe or religion. Politics that will divide along tribe or religion, I don't believe in it. In Kaduna State, we have lived together for over 100 years, there have been inter-marriages and so on, therefore we should stop initiating division. The ANPP national officer claimed this is the position of the party in Kaduna State."
But that is not the position in PDP. Last year, when Makarfi was bidding for support for his second term election, the southern Kaduna PDP caucus had laid their cards on the table before the governor, by presenting the governor with a Memorandum of Understanding on power sharing between the two traditional divisions in Kaduna State, the northern and the southern parts.
The governor then constituted a 30-man committee to deliberate on the MOU and to advise him appropriately. The committee, which had such prominent persons as the present minister of state for finance, Mrs. Nenadi Usman and Senator S. Tafida as members supported the recommendations of the southern PDP caucus.
The recommendations cover such areas as power sharing along the concept of North and South, fairness and equity in the distribution of political appointments between the North and the South "to ensure checks and balance between the commissioners and other key positions in any given ministry." The report states that the concept of northern and southern Kaduna divisions for the purpose of power sharing in the state based on its long historical antecedence and to ensure peaceful coexistence especially confidence building, justice and fair play as the criteria in consonance with the uniqueness and conspicuous identity of the two religious groupings in each divide should be recognised and patronised in commensurate degree to their number. Section 8.0 of the recommendation on power shift also states that the committee acknowledges the principle of power shift and recommends that the party (PDP) rotates the governorship position between the three senatorial zones. Since zone one is currently occupying this position until 2007, the party should shift this post to zone two or three by 2007. Section 9 of the recommendation is also vital. It states that the committee agrees that the MOU submitted by the Southern Kaduna PDP caucus is a legitimate demand of their people and should be treated with understanding to ensure success at the polls.
It was based on this agreement that the people of southern Kaduna voted overwhelmingly for the return of Makarfi in 2003. Now the critical question bothering the minds of most politicians from the southern part of the state is whether Makarfi will renege on this agreement. Several rumours have sprung out at different times giving credence to the fact that the governor might not honour the agreement. One of such rumour was the governor's purported support for the late commissioner for works, Arc. Umaru Kubau. The commissioner who died recently in a motor accident was very close to the governor. He was from the northern Kaduna like the governor. Besides this, the commissioner enjoyed a lot of visibility and was particularly influential in the Makarfi government and not a few people felt there could be some credibility in the allegation that he was being groomed for the position. But when THISDAY confronted Governor Makarfi with some of these allegations, he did not only debunk them, he also made categorical stands on some of the contentious issues.
For instance, on the allegation that he might renege on the agreement contained in the MOU drafted by the southern Kaduna PDP caucus, Makarfi said he would always abide by a gentleman agreement. He also debunked the allegation that he was grooming the late commissioner for the governorship position. "I was never grooming anybody. There are so many people I am said to be grooming from each of the zones. Once you are in a position of leadership, people would ascribe so many things to you. Even when he was alive, I told him I was aware of this arrangement. It is left to the party members if they want to discard it, then they will sit the same way they sat to discuss it. It is not for me to say," said the governor.
Can this allay the fears of southern Kaduna people? Not likely. SOKAPU, which is the umbrella union for the people of the southern Kaduna does not agree with this agreement. As far as the union is concerned, the power rotation should follow the traditional division of southern and northern Kaduna. The union has vowed it will not agree with the idea of power shift among senatorial districts. According to SOKAPU president, "the political arrangement of three senatorial districts is a political requirement for producing three senators per state. It does not therefore follow the dichotomy because Kaduna State is not divided into three, traditionally. They had to take a part from the northern area and another part from the southern zone to produce a central zone. If we are to respect tradition, we should not look at it in terms of the three districts. The implication is that you are likely to get a candidate who belongs to the northern part of the traditional division but comes from central senatorial district and will not satisfy that dichotomy which people know traditionally."
However, considering the calibre of southern people in the PDP caucus and the 30-man committee that worked on the Memorandum of Understanding, which specifies power rotation among the senatorial districts, then SOKAPU obviously has a lot of challenges to confront.
As far as the governor is concerned, the MoU remains the only valid decision except, the PDP members decide to change it. "I am from a senatorial zone. The senatorial zone is the legitimate thing. It is like the nation where we have six geo-political zones. But in some cases you can talk about the northern and southern parts of the country. But even outside this context, you find some people also agitating for Middle Belt. So, if you talk of Kaduna, there is northern senatorial zone, there is a central zone and there is a southern zone. Some people in the Central zone take themselves to be part of southern Kaduna while some people take themselves to be part of the northern zone. It depends on the issues being discussed. People align themselves one way or the other depending on what they are looking for. Sometimes, they even look at it within the context of local governments. People tend to have some justifications for what they are looking for," said the governor.
This line of divide, as insignificant as it appears, will define the shape of what may happen ahead of 2007. The southern Kaduna is central to this issue. It has several tribes, but Christians are in the majority. There are also the Hausa/Fulani Moslem who are also from the southern part. They are part of the group SOKAPU is trying to pull along as it consolidates at home. But politicians are bound to be the greatest hurdle for this union. Notwithstanding that the union is out to fight on their behalf, it is almost certain that politics will take precedence over any form of affiliation that SOKAPU is trying to bring about in the South. This is yet a challenge before SOKAPU. Another challenge is the ease with which the southern Kaduna people always unite to give overwhelming support to northern candidates. But when one of them requires such support, then ethnicity would set in. Due to this attitude, it is always easy to take them for granted.
The non-recognition of zoning by ANPP is one pointer to the fragile nature of SOKAPU's stance. Even the present PDP agreement that recognises power sharing along senatorial districts is yet another hurdle before the aspiration of the southern Kaduna people. More so, the PDP arrangement was based on the recommendation of the southern caucus of PDP who are supposed to be the main beneficiaries of power rotation.
The unspoken interest of those spearheading the agitation for power rotation along the traditional divide of northern and southern Kaduna is religion. The people of northern Kaduna are predominantly Hausa/Fulani Moslem. They have enjoyed control over the politics of Kaduna State so far, partly due to their overwhelming population as a single ethnic group. Whereas, the situation in the southern part is quite different. Although, the area is clearly dominated by Christians, but there are several ethnic groups that have often pursued different interests whenever collective effort is required.
But even then, these different peoples have had to share a common experience of deprivation and denial as several governments, both military and civilian paid little or no attention to the development needs of the area. But as most of them have come to acknowledge, the government of Governor Makarfi has done a lot to integrate them into the main stream.
The subjugation of these tribes under the feudal system of the Emirship had been an issue for which so much disaffection had been generated. In very recent times, the central Kaduna to the far away Zango-Kataf were part of the vast area of influence of the Emir of Zazzau. It was not a comfortable experience for the people who are neither Hausa/Fulani nor Moslem to be under an Emir, who does not share the same culture with them and who was incapable of even understanding their aspirations. Under this feudal regime, these various tribes felt subjugated and deprived. From denial, they had sub-consciously slipped into frustration, which gave rise to a desire for liberation.
The agitation for some form of liberty resulted in resistance, and in the process, Kaduna State emerged in the last two decades as Nigeria's centre of violence. There had been bloody conflicts, as early as 1980 in Kasuwar Magani, 1984 in Zango-Kataf and Gure-Kanugu, in 1987 in Kafanchan and Lere, 1992 in Zango-Kataf, which spilled over to Kaduna and Zaria. Most of the violence had been mainly tribal, but in 2000, the crisis was directly spurred by the Sharia legal system introduced in Zamfara State. For a volatile state like Kaduna, mere attempt to constitute a committee to look at the desirability of the system was enough to make Kaduna spit fire. And the state has since then has a reputation for catching flame when violence brews in other places. One experience is the Miss World report, which led to the death of many people and destruction of property.
This has been the battle Makarfi has had to fight. The result of his efforts, is the peace that now pervades Kaduna State. The peace here may have taken a firmer root than anyone had imagined. Otherwise, the last crisis in Yelwa-Shedam in Plateau State would ordinarily have been replayed in more destructive proportion in Kaduna. That crisis was one critical test for the peace in Kaduna. But what has not been tested is the level of trust and confidence the people of the southern Kaduna now have in the political system of Kaduna State.
Perhaps, the 2007 election will provide the critical opportunity to put this to test.
What is Wrong with Senatorial Districts?
To an ordinary southern Kaduna man, power rotation along the senatorial districts is another way to deny him access to power. Christians and the minority ethnic groups, are essentially almost essentially almost entirely the dominant population in the southern Kaduna. And if Kaduna is divided along the traditional northern and southern lines, such partitioning would make power rotation meaningful as almost every candidate from there would be of the minority ethnic groups. But with the senatorial districts as basis for power rotation, then the introduction of the central senatorial district, with a sizeable Hausa/Fulani and Moslem population, would have taken wind off the sails of the minorities liberation ship.
For instance, the incumbent governor is from the north senatorial district, which is classified as zone 1 and he has spent two terms. If chronological order were to be followed, then it should be the turn of zone 11, which happens to be the Central senatorial district. In this district, there are about five local government areas with sizeable Moslem population. There is Kagarku, there is also Sanga that are even dominated by Moslem. Then, Jaba, Jarma and Kachia local government areas have sizeable number of Moslems. No doubt, an Hausa/Fulani Moslem candidate can emerge from any of these councils. And power would be said to have shifted. That means, the proper southern people may have to wait for another eight years. This is what SOKAPU intends to avoid by insisting on division along the traditional divide of northern and southern Kaduna.
But most people, especially politicians from the northern part of Kaduna are at a loss over the claims that the southern people have never been governor of Kaduna State. Out of about 18 governors that had ruled Kaduna State, only seven were from the old Kaduna State. They are Gen. Hassan Usman Katsina, Mallam Balarabe Musa; Abba Musa Rimi who came in after Balarabe was impeached; Alhaji Lawal Kaita who spent only three months as a result of the Buhari/Idiagbon coup; AVM Usman Muazu, a military administrator who ruled in1985; Alhaji Dabo Lere, civilian governor who ruled between 1992 to 1993; and the incumbent, Makarfi. Of these seven, only four could be said to be from the old Zaria Province, which is the present Kaduna State. They are Balarabe, Muazu, Lere and Makarfi. It is from this that the present northern and southern dichotomy emerged.
The contention has always been over where Lere belong. Northern or southern Kaduna? While southern Kaduna people would argue that Lere Local Government is in the south, it has always rejected the assertion that the late former governor Dabo Lere was from southern Kaduna. However, AVM Muazu is southern Kaduna, while both Balarabe Musa and Makarfi are from the northern part. Of the four governors to have come from Kaduna State so far, it could turn out to be that both north and south have had two governors each. It could be argued too that three has come from the North while only one has come from the south, depending on who is presenting the fact.
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