Daily Independent Online.
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Monday, August 16, 2004.
2007: Zoning as PDP’s albatross
Remi Adebayo
The acclaimed
biggest party in Africa, Nigeria’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is not
having a smooth ride over the foggy situation that protagonists of zoning of
the presidency have created lately. The genesis of the clamour itself is no
less dramatic. President Olusegun Obasanjo of PDP got the first term mandate on
May 29, 1999. His unhindered access into the Aso Rock, of course, was a direct
national sympathy for the South West following the annulment of the June 12,
1993 election, which was believed to have been won by the late Bashorun Moshood
Abiola, a Yoruba from the South West. Obasanjo’s advent then was in
pursuit of the zoning formula. In the scenario also for the first time in the
history of Nigeria, candidates from the same geo-political region emerged as
presidential flag-bearers of the leading political parties. Flying the flag of
the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the then All Peoples Party (APP) alliance
was Chief Samuel Olu Falae. Falae, an Ondo State-born politician, ran with
Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, from the North.
The candidature of two Yoruba was to
correct the perceived injustice done the South West through the voiding of
Chief MKO Abiola’s ‘impossible’ mandate, his incarceration
and eventual death in custody. It became imperative, therefore, to pacify the
West, and so one of its own should be made the chief tenant of the Aso Rock
Villa upon the death of Gen Sani Abacha, the man who played a much larger role
in the political impasse that almost cost the nation its soul.
There wasn’t any controversy over
the policy in 2003 because the incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo was still
constitutionally empowered to go for a second term.
Shortly after
Obasanjo was sworn in to begin his second term mandate, the agitation for
zoning of the nation’s highest office began to gather momentum again.
The first to jump into the ring was the
South East geo-political zone. The five states in the zone, all PDP-controlled,
had signified their intentions to assume presidency right from 1999 when Dr. Alex Ekwueme, who also
served as the chairman of the Board of Trustees of the People’s
Democratic Party, was in the race to challenge the new entrant, Gen. Olusegun
Obasanjo in the party’s presidential primary held in Jos, Plateau State.
Ekwueme failed, but his spirit was not dampened. He supported Obasanjo having
lost to him at the primary.
One of the worries President Obasanjo
had to live with during his first term was the strong agitation for an Igbo
presidency from the Abia State Governor, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu. This development
did not elicit much support then even from the bigwigs of the zone. While some
believed in the 2003 presidency for an Igbo man, some held the contrary view
that Obasanjo should be allowed to run second term. In fact, the maverick
politician, Senator Arthur Nzeribe, drew his people’s anger when in his
characteristic manner, he advised the Igbo to wait till 2007.
Standing directly opposite this
submission is the National Coordinator of the Eastern Mandate Union (EMU),
Chuba Egolum, who believes that the Igbo lost the chance in 2003.
Nevertheless, the South East governors
took a position in their South East Governors’ Conference meeting in
Owerri, Imo State, when they unanimously declared that the Igbo “shall
not play second fiddle, but instead, go for the presidency, come 2007”.
To demonstrate its commitment to this
project, the pan-Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, gave the
declaration its blessings when it later visited Presidential Villa, Abuja, on a
courtesy visit to the President.
This could be traced to why the group
had to step in recently when it was obvious that the Senate President, Adolphus
Wabara, who hails from the zone, was about to be impeached by the David Mark-led
‘purists’ in the Senate. Ohanaeze’s intervention was
obviously not only to prevent the impeachment, but equally to blow hot against
those scheming against the Igbo presidency aspiration.
However, the North would not take
anything for granted having ceded power to the South in 1999. The North through
the Governor of Kaduna State, Mohammed Ahmed Makarfi, was rattled by the
position of his counterparts from the East, which he described as a breach of
trust. To the North, speaking through Makarfi, 2007 presidency will not be
compromised by the zone. According to Makarfi, issues of power at the national
level are all about North and
South.
This assertion, if true and adhered to,
will stand in the way of the South East, which insists that rather than the North/South
rotational scheme, the nation is a tripod of North, South East and South West.
The Ohanaeze Ndigo position is not
without challenge from the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), which insists on the
presidency going back to the North. ACF Chairman Sunday Awoniyi, himself a
former PDP chief, has not hidden his organisation’s position on the issue
when he made it clear that nobody, group or geo-political zone could prevent
the North from ‘re-claiming’ the presidency by 2007.
Giving impetus to the northern clamour,
the Deputy National Chairman (South) of the People’s Democratic Party,
Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, ruffled the South East claim when he said that
“the issue of the 2007 presidency had been decided for long, it is going
to the North”. He said this while reacting to the comment of the Ogun
State Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, who said it was only the South West that
had no moral right to contest 2007 presidency, insisting that any zone could
aspire to the office.
Could it mean that such a sensitive
decision was taken in the absence of the President? While answering questions
in his monthly Media Chat, the President, subtly invalidating Oyedokun’s
assertion, denied having any knowledge of any zoning in the PDP.
His words: “We have not as a party
zoned 2007 to any zone or state, to the best of my knowledge. Definitely, it
will not be to the South West.”
The President’s angle to the
debate is the maxim ‘one man’s food and another man’s
poison.’ The statement was greeted with excitement among the South East
political elite, who still saw a ray of hope in the possibility to cling the
2007 Presidency. This, to the North, called for a better way of putting its
house in order and re-strategise.
Meanwhile, former military President
Ibrahim Babangida, who is believed to be a strong contender to the office,
added his voice to the debate, saying the presidency could go to any zone in
2007.
But where does the
PDP itself stand? Observers believe that its Chairman, Chief Audu Innocent
Ogbeh, appears to be caught in the zoning trap, despite his alignment with the
pro-North agitators because any hasty move could harm the party’s chances
in 2007.
The
Obasanjo/Daniel/IBB position on no-zoning formula, which also has support from
the ilk of the Edo-born strategist, Chief Tony Anenih, much as it gives hope to
all competent and qualified Nigerians to aspire to occupy Aso Rock Villa in
2007, may as well turn the North against and the South East.
The Igbo, like
their Northern counterparts, are not in collision over the zoning, what PDP may
find difficult a shell to crack now is whether the nation is streamlined along
the North-South or North, South West and South East regions.
Vice President
Atiku Abubakar, from the North East ordinarily should be the heir apparent to
the office. Any arrangement that would not favour the North in the zoning
arrangement might not go down well with Atiku whose zone has been longing to
have a shot at Presidency. Atiku may be forced to retool his People’s Democratic
Movement (PDM), the political movement he inherited from Yar’Adua, which
arguably is the single strongest caucus within the PDP. In the event this
happens, it will definitely reduce the fortunes of the PDP in the 2007.
All the North Eastern governors except
Governor Adamu Mua’zu are unanimous on this. Adamu is reported to be
interested in the 2007 presidency.
Zoning on the basis of South-North scheme, as it is being orchestrated
by the North, will still not have secured the confidence of the entire North.
With the entrance of Alhaji Umar Shinkafi of the opposition All Nigeria Peoples
Party (ANPP) in the 2007 and the reported Caliphate endorsement, should Atiku,
who is believed to have spread his tentacles beyond his zone, pair with the
North West, considering the position of Katsina State where the Yar’Adua
merchinery is still intact, the ruling party might be compromising too much.
Although the North
Central (Middle Belt) is yet to make any official pronouncement on this zoning
controversy, its unofficial candidate, Ibrahim Babangida, has called for an
all-comer contest. Observers believe that the reported pact between Obasanjo
and Babangida, which was said to have been reached when Babangida persuaded
Obasanjo into the 1999 presidency race, might have been in full gear now.
Whether President Obasanjo would lead the West to support the IBB project is
not yet known.
PDP controls all the states in the North
Central and South West except Lagos
State, having wrested Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Ekiti states from the Alliance
for Democracy (AD) and Kwara and Kogi states from the ANPP in the 2003 general
elections.
Analysts believe that should the South
East lose out through the North/South calculation, which would have
disqualified the zone in the PDP based on Obasanjo’s eight-year
administration, and should the rival All Nigeria Peoples Party fly the carrot
of offering the South East zone the presidency slot, the Igbo would move out en
masse from the PDP to the ANPP.
Protagonists of continuation of power in
the South might jump into the ship of ANPP, especially from the South West
whose political alignment after Obasanjo’s second term could be very
fluid, considering the level of criticism against the President from his very
zone.
Ogbeh and indeed
the People’s Democratic Party have this assiduous task before it. This
development, observers believe, would dictate where the politicians from these
zones would eventually pitch their tents. This perhaps is the undercurrent of
the call for a political re-alignment in Lagos on Thursday, May 6, this year.
At the forum, Solomon Lar, who was the pioneer chairman of the People’s
Democratic Party, voiced out the need to re-think political habitation by the
progressives at the book launch of Chief Olu Falae where eminent Nigerians,
including Ekwueme and Chief Anthony Enahoro were present.
Political analysts are of the view that
the zoning formula as a system prevents the emergence of the best candidate in
a contest like the nation’s presidency, where the drive is to produce the
best from a welter of contending choices.
•Adebayo is on the staff of Daily Independent
