Atiku’s discreet tactics
While Vice- President
Atiku Abubakar
appears to be pursuing his 2007 presidential ambition in low profile fashion, his main opponent for Nigeria’s most coveted political office, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, is going at it the other way. General Babangida has not only dominated the cover stories of the national press, but also has his political fedayeens working on all cylinders, at home and abroad, to boost his 2007 presidential project. Already, vocal politicians and academics, such as Chief Ebenezer Babatope and Professor Omo Omoruyi respectively, have been speaking of the inevitability of the IBB option. What is intriguing, however, is not the status of those jumping on the IBB train for the 2007 presidential project, but the manner President Obasanjo’s instruction to put all campaigns on hold for now is being audaciously flouted. It is obvious that, the president’s instruction not to heat up the polity has fallen like water off a duck’s back.
Although Atiku Abubakar has deferentially observed the spirit and letter of the no-campaign for-now presidential order, his rivals are exploiting the situation to maximal advantage. According to widely publicised media reports, Atiku Abubakar has ordered the removal of his posters that were conspicuously pasted by his loyalists as a gesture of respect to the president’s order that such campaign could divert energy from the challenges of governance, including the successful implementation of the policies of the Obasanjo administration. With the IBB camp defying the no campaign instruction with impunity, a wrong signal appears to be sent that Atiku Abubakar is rendered the underdog in such circumstances. His rivals don’t seem to abide by the instruction as their campaign adverts in the national press continue unabated, with incredible frequency and intensity.
As Atiku’s rivals overrun the political arena, varying political conclusions are reached by observers and analysts. For example, some people admire the wisdom of the vice-president in his decision to remain a team player and loyal to the instruction of the president. After all, they are in the same ship in which they hope to steer Nigeria to a prosperous future. However, some observers are of the view that his sitting duck posture in the name of obeying the no-campaign instruction to the letter might hamstring him politically as his rivals will leave nothing to chances.
Despite the seeming impediment the no-campaign-for-now order might cause the vice-president in terms of the fear of late start, Atiku Abubakar is not a man who loses focus of what he wants. Although the instruction could make Atiku appear like an eagle that has had its wings clipped as it poised to fly, it is simplistic to assume that such factor in itself is enough to scuttle the presidential ambition of the vice-president.
In fact, Atiku’s taciturnity in the face of his rivals’ snide comments at him should not be mistaken for weakness. To my mind, it is the height of naivety to mistake someone’s taciturnity for stupidity. When the possum feigns death, it survives many an enemy. It is indeed the height of absurdity to inexorably tie Atiku’s political fate in 2007 to the seemingly cumbersome presidential order, urging all contestants to put their campaigns on hold for now.
As the Babangida camp campaigns with razzmatazz and cavalier indifference to keep politicking on hold for now, Atiku’s rivals may be chuckling to themselves over what they perceive to be a natural advantage the halt order could give them at the vice-president’s expense. However, those close to the vice- president believe that Atiku Abubakar has no reason for consternation over the innocuous instruction by the President not to ruin the early part of their second term in office with diversionary electioneering campaign for the 2007 presidency.
Widely mistaken as a strategy to torpedo the ship of Atiku’s 2007 presidential ambition, OBJ’s official instruction to halt campaign activities for now does not evidentially suggest any active design by the president to throw his deputy to the wolves. Emerging events, on the contrary, suggest that the president’s faith in his vice and his affection towards him are growing stronger. As his rivals continue to fight with him with bare knuckles and looking for any possible Achilles’ heel in Atiku, the vice-president appears surprisingly unfazed by the falling arrows of disdain and aspersion. If his rivals can continue to assault him like savage wolves with undiminished intensity, it then appears that Atiku Abubakar is a man we must take seriously, regardless of the order to suspend campaign activities for now.
By not responding personally to snide remarks from his rivals and denigrators, the vice-president marvels many commentators by his ability to play politics with decorum. Again, his silence must not be mistaken for political effeminacy. Do we forget too soon that unpredictability is an important tactical weapon even in battlefield warfare? Do we also forget that still waters run deep?
Any politician like Atiku Abubakar who joined his party with a political platform of his own, cannot be intimidated by the tactics of his rivals. In the thinking of Atiku’s opponents, the no-campaign order would hurt the vicepresident more, because of their notion that it might make him look like a lamb to their slaughterhouse, some kind of easy meat. Let us not forget, however, that you cannot catch an old fox with chaff. There is often the tendency to dismiss the hare as a physically weaker creation, but its smartness and alertness are the virtues that make it survive stronger predator. According to insiders, it will amount to miscalculation and even naivety to ever directly link Atiku’s political future to the no-campaign-for now order by President Obasanjo.
What most analysts tend to overlook is the fact that an unpredictable enemy is more difficult to deal with. As his opponent continue to campaign at full blast in defiance of Obasanjo’s order to halt politicking for now, Atiku Abubakar presents no evidence of sulking or broken politician. He is said to be pursuing a phased political strategy to realise his presidential ambition in 2007. Again, what some analysts tend to ignore is the fact that you don’t judge a politician’s success by superficial PR, media and advertising razzmatazz. The seeming internationalisation of the endorsement of certain presidential aspirants all appears to be part of the game plan to psych out Atiku Abubakar by his rivals.
It seems, however, that as a grass roots politician, the vice-president is developing a thicker skin to his opponents’ tricks. As he humbly and loyally observes Obasanjo’s order to halt campaigns at the moment, Atiku Abubakar’s adversaries are naively misreading the signal as an indirect endorsement of their own cause. But as a wise and experienced politician, Atiku Abubakar knows better that he has more to gain by working in tandem and harmoniously with his boss.
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