Atiku and his burden of 2007
By Dantani Mani
Usman
While
Vice-President Atiku Abubakar appears to be pursuing his 2007 presidential
ambition in low profile fashion, his main rival for Nigeria’s most
coveted political office, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, is going at it hammer and
tongs.
Babangida has not
only dominated the cover stories of the national press, but has also his
political fedayeens working on all cylinders, at home and abroad, to boost
his 2007 presidential project. Already, vocal politicians and academics, such
as Chief Ebenezer Babatope and Professor Omo Omoruyi have been speaking of the
inevitability of the IBB option. What is intriguing, however, is not the status
of those jumping on the IBB train for the 2007 presidential project, but the
manner President Olusegun Obasanjo’s instruction to put all campaigns on
hold for now is being audaciously flouted. It is obvious that given the
obtrusive and defiant manner the IBB camp is campaigning aggressively at home
and abroad, the President’s instruction not to heat up the polity has
fallen like water off a duck’s back.
Although Atiku has
deferentially observed the spirit and letter of the no-campaign-for-now presidential
order, his rivals are exploiting the situation to maximal advantage. According
to widely publicised media reports, Atiku has ordered the removal of his
posters that were conspicuously pasted by his loyalists, as a gesture of
respect to the President’s order that such campaign could divert energy
from the challenges of governance, including the successful implementation of
the policies of the Obasanjo administration.
With the IBB camp
defying the no campaign instruction with impunity, a wrong signal appears to be
sent that the vice-president is rendered the underdog in such circumstances.
His rivals don’t seem to feel bound by the instruction as their campaign
adverts in the national press continue unabated, with incredible frequency and
intensity.
As Atiku’s
rivals overrun the political arena, varying political conclusions are reached
by observers and analysts. For example, some people admire the wisdom of the
vice-president in his decision to remain a team player and loyal to the
instruction of the President.
After all, they are
in the same ship, in which they hope to steer Nigeria to a prosperous future.
However, some observers are of the view that his sitting duck posture in the
name of obeying the no-campaign instruction to the letter might hamstring him
politically as his rivals will leave nothing to chance. There are others still
who believe that toeing the President’s line might strengthen rather than
weaken Atiku’s political interest. In fact, it dovetails with common
sense to say that obeying the
President’s
no-campaign instruction might yield dividends in the end to Atiku
(politically). Nothing could be more significant to Atiku than sustaining the
trust and affection of his boss.
Despite the seeming
impediment the no-campaign-for-now order might cause the vice-president in
terms of the fear of starting late, Atiku is not a man who loses focus of what
he wants. Although the instruction could make Atiku appear like an eagle that
has had its wings clipped as it is poised to fly, it is simplistic to assume
that such factor in itself is enough to scuttle the presidential ambition of
the vice-president.
In fact,
Atiku’s taciturnity in the face of his rivals’ snide comments at
him should not be mistaken for weakness. To my mind, it is the height of
naivety to mistake someone’s taciturnity for stupidity. When the possum
feigns death, it survives many an enemy. It is indeed the height of absurdity
to inexorably tie Atiku’s political fate in 2007 to the seemingly
cumbersome presidential order urging all contestants to put their campaigns on
hold for now.
As the Babangida
camp campaigns with razzmatazz and cavalier indifference to keep politicking on
hold for now, Atiku’s rivals may be chuckling to themselves over what
they perceive to be a natural advantage the halt order could give them at the
vice-president’s expense. However, those close to the vice-president
believe that he has no reason for consternation over the innocuous instruction
by the President not to ruin the early part of their second term in office with
diversionary electioneering campaigns for the 2007 presidency.
Widely mistaken as
a strategy to torpedo the ship of Atiku’s 2007 presidential ambition,
OBJ’s instruction does not evidentially suggest any active design by the
President to throw his deputy to the wolves. Emerging events, on the contrary,
suggest that the President’s faith in his deputy and his affection
towards him are growing stronger. As his rivals continue to fight him with bare
knuckles and looking for any possible Achilles heel in Atiku, the
vice-president appears surprisingly unfazed by the falling arrows of disdain
and aspersion. If his rivals can continue to assail him with undiminished
intensity, it then appears that Atiku is a man we must take seriously,
regardless of the order to suspend campaign activities for now.
By not responding
personally to snide remarks from his rivals and denigrators, the vice-president
marvels many commentators by his ability to play politics with decorum. Again,
his silence must not be mistaken for political effeminacy. Do we forget too
soon that unpredictability is an important tactical weapon even in battlefield
warfare? Do we also forget that still waters run deep?
By merely
respecting the presidential order to halt campaign, overtly or covertly, Atiku
is doing the rational thing by speaking the same language with his boss, as far
as the policy direction of the Obasanjo administration is concerned. In fact,
choosing loyalty over defiance is an important ingredient for the realisation
of his 2007 presidential ambition. Some may argue that the no-campaign order
could bind Atiku, hand and foot, but the reality is that the impact of the
instruction on his political future is grossly exaggerated. Contrary to the
sadistic delight of his adversaries, who feel less bound by the order, there is
no firm evidence that the instruction could mean Atiku’s suspended
animation (politically).
Any politician like
Atiku, who joined his party with a political platform of his own, cannot be
intimidated by the tactics of his rivals. In the thinking of Atiku’s
opponents, the no-campaign order would hurt the vice-president more, because of
their notion that it might make him look like a lamb to their slaughterhouse,
some kind of easy meat. Let us not forget, however, that one cannot catch an
old fox with chaff. There is often the tendency to dismiss the hare as a
physically weak creation, but its smartness and alertness are the virtues that
make it survive stronger predators. According to insiders, it will amount to
miscalculation and even naivety to ever directly link Atiku’s political
future to the no-campaign-for-now order by Obasanjo.
Given the forces
formidably arrayed against the vice-president, it is apparent that his
political strength is a source of unease to his rivals. There is no politician
in recent memory whose innocuous presidential ambition is making so many rivals
feel like cats on hot bricks like Atiku’s. This is a man they dismissed
as a greenhorn. If Atiku is that insignificant, then why does anyone need such
overkill force of opposition to bring him down? Yet again, if he is a paper
tiger as his rivals assume, why should anyone lose a minute’s sleep over his
presidential ambition? Atiku’s refusal to pay back his adversaries in
their own coins as they continue to denigrate him in the papers is further
confusing their interpretation of his perceived strength or weakness.
What most analysts
tend to overlook is the fact that an unpredictable enemy is more difficult to
deal with.
As his rivals
continue to campaign at full blast in defiance of Obasanjo’s order, Atiku
presents no evidence of a sulking or broken politician. He is said to be
pursuing a phased political strategy to realise his presidential ambition in
2007. Again, what some analysts tend to ignore is the fact that you don’t
judge a politician’s success by superficial PR, media and advertising
razzmatazz. The seeming internationalisation of the endorsement of certain
presidential aspirants appears to be part of the game plan to psych out Atiku
by his rivals.
It seems, however,
that as a grassroots politician, the vice-president is developing a thicker
skin to his rivals’ dirty tricks. As he loyally observes Obasanjo’s
order, Atiku’s adversaries are naively misreading the signal as an
indirect endorsement of their own cause. But as an inexperienced but wise
politician, Atiku knows better that he has more to gain by working in tandem
and harmoniously with his boss. This partly explains why the Adamawa State-born
politician is not making a fuss out of the no-campaign order. He shocked many
when he ordered all his posters and other campaign symbols removed from the
streets. Whatever our worry (real or imagined), we cannot love Atiku Abubakar
better than he loves himself. He knows what he wants and how to attain it.
After all, he is
experienced enough to handle the emerging challenges for his presidential
ambition.
USMAN, a political commentator, sends this contribution
from Kontagora, Niger State.
