Early this year, those jostling for the presidency in 2007 were charging the nation’s political space on account of their campaigns. Poster war defined the texture and shape of the political battle ahead, just as pressure groups mushroomed in the business of drumming support for aspirants to the nation’s plum post, which President Olusegun Obasanjo vacates on May 29, 2007. Three entrenched and influential Nigerians within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, former President Ibrahim Babangida, Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Lagos State Military Administrator, General Buba Marwa, had betrayed their interest in Obasanjo’s position.
In fact, both Babangida and Abubakar had been known right from Obasanjo’s first term to harbour and nurture the ambition of becoming Obasanjo’s successor. Marwa only happened on the scene early this year, with his wide consultations and a series of political moves to bolster his aspiration.
The tempo of campaigns was gradually on a crescendo, and conducing to distract Obasanjo’s government, when the President dropped a shocker on the national television during one of his monthly media chats that it was too early in the second term of his administration to begin campaigns for an election that would hold in 2007. He said those who were doing that were not fair to his government, which was just settling down to its second term in office. Indeed, such early campaigns were indicative of a vote of no confidence in the incumbent President, it was so reasoned by a section of the populace.
The presidency went ahead to articulate a clear position on the issue, stating that early campaigns were unnecessary distractions to the Federal Government. A directive was issued to presidency officials to desist from making statements that bordered on the 2007 presidency.
It was also learnt that Obasanjo had meetings with the three frontline aspirants in the party at which he asked them to shun those trying to nudge them into early campaigns.
In fact, the presidency got the party leadership under Chief Audu Innocent Ogbeh to issue a directive at the party level, banning early campaigns. The directive was largely (mis)interpreted as designed to promote a possible hidden agenda. The fear then was that Obasanjo and his strategists were trying to slow down the presidential aspirants as part of a grand plan for Obasanjo’s self-succession.
Related to this development were concerns raised over the work of the Senator Ibrahim Mantu-led Constitution Review Committee over a possible leeway for Obasanjo to contest again in 2007 through some kind of amendment that was being feared would be woven round the idea of five-year single term presidency.
Besides, the manner in which Obasanjo had conquered and dominated his environment- emasculating the National Assembly, rendering almost impotent the party and combating Labour- was to further heighten anxieties in circles that the nation might be regressing to the dark days of the late General Sani Abacha. The speculation that Obasanjo wanted to extend his stay beyond 2007 gained currency and was almost passing for the truth until the President dismissed it as unfounded. His aides also reinforced his position on the issue. But skeptics and incurable pessimists of the Obasanjo administration are still stuck to their suspicion that a self-succession gambit is waiting to happen until proved otherwise.
The situation had remained the same- sustained anxieties, befuddled political direction and a jaded polity- until last week when the presidency and the PDP leadership began to widen the hitherto constricted political space within the party by quietly lifting, as it were, the ban they placed on early campaigns.
Formal announcement of the lifting of the ban would be made in five weeks’ time immediately after the submission of the report of the Alhaji Abubakar Iro Dan-Musa-led 37-member Party Reform Committee inaugurated penultimate Friday in Abuja by Chief Ogbeh. The committee was actually given six weeks from the day of the inauguration to complete its job. Significantly, the committee is to examine, among others, the issue of timing of campaigns. This, in fact, reinforced feelers that the presidency and the PDP were only waiting for the committee’s report to blow the whistle for full-blown campaigns.
But there were strong feelers last week that these authorities might have quietly lifted the ban on what they called early and distractive campaigns, going by this particular term of reference and another event, specifically a meeting that held elsewhere in Abuja where a go-ahead was said to have been given to one of the presidential aspirants to kick-off his campaigns in the light of a breach of the “no early campaign directive” by some other aspirants.
The secret meeting by some powerful individuals within and outside Aso Rock Presidential Villa was of particular interest because of its profundity on the direction of power pendulum in 2007. The issue of succession has been a very critical aspect of the on-going political transition. Having succeeded himself in 2003, Obasanjo knows that he is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election in 2007. Saturday Vanguard learnt that given the pressure being mounted on his government from diverse quarters to ease out in 2007 and the anxiety in the polity coupled with the manoeuvres by the “hawks” who are poised to strike, Obasanjo has now strictly concerned himself with the issue of his successor. In fact, it was learnt that the search for the successor has begun.
The search is said to extend beyond the number of aspirants that have so far found their way into the centre stage. So far, four prominent members of the party, Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, former Lagos State Military Administrator, General Buba Marwa and Abia Governor, Orji Uzor Kalu are known to be angling for the party’s presidential ticket. Before the quiet unofficial lifting of the ban on campaigns, Governor Kalu had forcefully launched out, telling the whole world why he wants to be President.
But Kalu’s move was not the only reason why the presidency allegedly decided to relax its directive. Sources close to Aso Rock told Saturday Vanguard that security reports had also indicted another frontline aspirant who was said to be encouraging his loyalists to engage in open campaigns in the guise of friendly and official visits. Obasanjo, as learnt, had encouraged the others to kick off their campaigns in the light of this development of flagrant breach of the directive.
But the development appears to be working in favour of a group of retired military generals, which is promoting one of the presidential aspirants. The source explained that the seeming presidential backing was an expression of anger that flowed from the said security report that allegedly indicted the aspirant, who is said to be strategic to the 2007 contest for presidential power.
Emerging indications would appear to paint a complex political situation from the PDP National Convention in December next year and the subsequent presidential primaries ahead of the 2007 presidential polls. For instance, analysts ask: what would be the fate of Vice Presidential Abubakar, who is believed to control substantially the party machinery in the event that Obasanjo throws his weight behind either of Generals Babangida or Marwa? Will he be able to mobilise the party machine and his loyalists to fight the President and the vibrant military constituency who have in their grips the machinery of the state to prosecute their battle? Will the party hold together under bombardment of the awesome executive machine?
On the other hand, if the reverse were to be the case, with Obasanjo throwing his weight behind his deputy of eight years, what would happen to the clan of retired military generals who have held the polity by the jugular over the years? Will they be ready now to let power go to the civilian class?
However, the process of handing over, as learnt, may be guided to produce a pre-determined successor, whose tasks would be to be steadfast and keep faith with the spirit of a pact said to have been signed with a clique. Its members, presidency sources disclosed, are mounting a campaign that given the complex and delicate problem of Nigeria, it would be dangerous to leave the country in the hands of someone who may not be able to stave off coups and hold together the “fragile” federation.
Indeed, the capacity to hold together the country and strengthen national unity was one of the major considerations that placed President Obasanjo over and above former Vice President, Dr. Alex Ekwueme in the estimation of the then General Abdulsalami Abubakar military administration for the PDP’s presidential ticket and enhanced his electoral fortune in the 1999 presidential election.
In 2003, the President’s political strategists and campaigners had also hinged his bid for second term on the need to consolidate on the structures he had put in place for another four years by which time it might be safe to relinquish power to anybody who next emerges at the PDP presidential primaries and the presidential elections.
The fear that is being instilled into powerful elements and interests who are interested in who becomes the nation’s ruler in 2007, it was learnt, is that the nation would collapse in a matter of two or three months if a weakling succeeds Obasanjo. A clique of power brokers in the North, with strong military connection and background, has been the promoter of this school of thought. The clique has been consulting on how to position its preferred candidate for the nation’s plum job. It has aspirants for the coveted seat, but they have a preferred candidate. It was gathered that they are syndicating with some powerful presidency officials and core loyalists in the direction of ensuring that Obasanjo backs their candidate.
How easily this would be realised remains to be seen. It is one of the compelling considerations in the quiet lifting of the ban. Although, many leaders and members of the party have been at a loss since last week as to whether the directive had been lifted or not since no official pronouncement has been made, Saturday Vanguard can authoritatively confirm that the restriction on early campaigns had been relaxed. The official pronouncement would be made after the Iro Dan-Musa committee must have submitted its report in about a month from now.
But this is not the only significant thing that the committee would do. It is also to review the automatic membership of delegates to the party convention and primaries that appointed officials of government have been enjoying from inception of the party and the government. Appointed officials of government, among them ministers, special advisers and special assistants to the President, Vice President, have consistently been admitted as part of the delegates to the party convention and presidential primaries so far held. Many elected office holders, particularly at the state and local government levels have always been excluded from the membership of the delegates, a development that resulted in litigation ahead of the 2003 presidential primaries of the party.
Chief Ogbeh told the committee: “You will examine the issue of nomination for elective offices within the party and recommend parameters for special congresses for the following offices: chairmen of local governments, members of the state assemblies, members of the House of Representatives, members of the Senate, governorship and the president. You are invited to pay special attention to the issue of appointed persons being part of the delegates. This has generated debate and even litigation”.
The move, geared towards barring appointed presidency aides from being automatic membership of delegates to the convention and presidential primaries, has been interpreted as capable of whittling down the advantage of number that the incumbent Vice President may enjoy over other aspirants at convention and presidential primaries.
No doubt, the PDP is heading for some momentous days ahead. There will be manoeuvres, there will pernicious intrigues, there will be muscle flexing, there will be blackmail and backstabbing in the scramble for the soul of Nigeria, for which Obasanjo has now quietly blown the whistle for attendant campaigns to start.
The PDP leadership, under Ogbeh, which is said to also have its sympathy for one of the aspirants, different from Obasanjo’s fancy, might be fatally caught in the crossfire that would most likely ensue with the way the game is playing out. Can those who are unfortunate to find themselves at the receiving end of the emerging war survive the bombardments, the blackmail, the intimidation and all that?
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It’s not early for PDP to lift the ban—Kalu
Governor Orji Kalu of Abia State was the first politician from the South-East in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to have declared his intention to contest for the party ticket at its convention. Last week, this paper ran an interview with the governor on what his motivation and mission are. But as the PDP was said to have lifted ban on campaigns for the 2007 presidency, this reporter got across top Kalu to find out his views. He says it’s not early for his party to have given the green light for campaigns to start by aspirants.
It is the proper thing for the PDP to lift ban on campaign for the 2007 presidency at this time. It is not too early to start campaigning because it is a project that requires time. Nigerians don’t need strangers to lead them. They need someone they are very familiar with, someone they know very well, someone who is well acquainted with them. That is why I started early to mobilise. That is why I declared early because I’m going to win. We are talking about running this country and we must get it right. It is not too early to begin the campaigns.
As for zoning, I have told you before that I believe what the leader of the party said. The leader, that is President Obasanjo said the presidency has not been zoned to anywhere.
I think that statement is greater than whatever anybody might want to say. It is the responsibility of PDP National Executive Committee to decide on zoning but for now, they have not done that and the President had come to say that such a decision has not been taken. I believe in that and I have come out early to start the 2007 campaigns because the people need to know me and I want to win.
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Marwa: There’s enormous pressure on me now
EX-LAGOS State military administrator, Brig-Gen Mohammed Buba Marwa hails from Adamawa State like Vice-President Atiku Abubakar who is also known to nurse an ambition to succeed his boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo. As he continues with his mobilisation efforts, Marwa reveals that he is under intense pressure on him now more than ever before.
I have never really come out to openly declare that I want to contest presidential elections come 2007. I have never done that. But there are pressures from Nigerians on me to contest because they believe I’ve got something to offer the people. That pressure is getting more intense now. So many prominent and notable Nigerians from different walks of life think I’m the man for the job and they have been speaking openly on that.
At the moment, what I am trying to do is study the situation and make contacts. I am mobilising support for the project and by the first quarter of next year, I will be able to tell Nigerians what my position is. I’m still mobilising, I’m still talking to people. I’m still garnering support and trying to handle the pressures on me well.
I don’t want to disappoint those who think I’m the man for the job and that is why I am saying to them, you and others to, please, wait. By the first quarter of year 2005, I will make an open declaration on this project. Then, everybody will know my position on the 2007 presidency. For now, I am making contacts, garnering support and I won’t disappoint. I can’t say more for now now.
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