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Petroleum prices: How to lie with statistics
It has been said that one of the easiest ways to lie is to
deploy a maze of statistics into the fray. That is why it is possible to have,
in statistical parlance, “a quarter male” or “one and half a
female”. Spin-doctors the world over have been known to readily deploy
statistical data as effective tools in their nefarious trade of manipulating
facts and events to achieve their aim of mass deceit and misinformation. The
extent to which statistical misinformation could be deployed in propaganda
warfare is therefore inexhaustible. Recently in Nigeria, we witnessed a
propaganda blitz initiated by the Federal Government to convince the Nigerian
populace that the prices of petroleum products are far cheaper in Nigeria than
are available in some deliberately selected countries, mostly countries that do
not produce crude oil in any appreciable quantity and, or are either in the
middle of a war or have just come out of one. In the government’s
presentation, comparisons were made with nations like Togo, Benin Republic,
Eritrea and Liberia!
As usual, with most propaganda campaigns, no effort was
made by those who dished out these statistics to show the peculiar economic
situations prevailing in those selected countries. For example, it would have
been very helpful if crucial things like the cost of living, the wage regime
and the GNP or general development indices of these nations were factored into
the comparison.
To counter these government-generated statistics, the NLC
has also published what in its view are the most logical comparisons that the
Nigerian government can make, that is, like for like. As an oil-producing
nation, Nigeria’s counterparts with which she could be justifiably be
compared would be those nations that also produce crude-oil like her. In this
connection, comparison with oil-producing countries like Algeria, Indonesia,
Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and other OPEC countries ought to be the
most logical thing to do and that was what the NLC has just done.
From the figures published by NLC, of all the countries that
were compared, Nigeria has the lowest average monthly income of N4, 825. The
nearest country in terms of average monthly income is Indonesia that pays N10,
327. Other oil-producing nations like Qatar and UAE pay as much as N399, 288
and N261, 096, respectively. On the whole, the average monthly income payable
in all the OPEC member-countries is about 200 times more than that of Nigeria.
Statistically, Nigeria is the most wretched of all the OPEC countries as far as
what it pays its citizens is concerned. We can concede to the fact that Nigeria
is a very populous nation like Indonesia but Indonesia still pays about thrice
what is available in Nigeria. To inhabitants of most oil-producing countries,
purchasing fuel at the prices we are paying in Nigeria would not mean much to
their take home pay. But even at that, the pump price of petrol is still
cheaper than what we pay in Nigeria. For example, gasoline in Algeria is only
35 kobo per litre; it is even cheaper in places like Iran where it is as low as
N10.19! The price of diesel is even ridiculously low in Iran where it sells for
N2.11 per litre. In Nigeria, it is as high as N60, even with the latest
“reduction”!
It is therefore a fact that while Nigerians earn far less
than their oil-producing counterparts, they pay more per litre for the petrol
they use - a clear case of double jeopardy.
We are worried that the government would indulge in churning
out patently misleading statistics in order to justify a price regime that is
patently oppressive and without due regard to the reality and special
circumstances of Nigerians. If our refineries were up and running, it is
inconceivable that any responsible government would want to affix the level of
pricing that Nigerians are being made to pay right now. Why then are we
dwelling in mischief?
Every nation has a product(s) that its citizens should take
for granted. Oil for Nigeria ought to be that product but due to a combination
of mismanagement and incompetence on the part of those who are at the helms, we
have now found ourselves in a situation where government would have to go into
the ludicrous exercise of comparing petroleum prices with countries like
Eritrea, Togo and Chad. If that is the ambition of this government, then we are
of all nations most miserable. Nigerians have a right to expect affordable
prices for petroleum products and no amount of statistics can change that
legitimate expectation.
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