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The Economist backs govt on $27 per barrel benchmark
By Sanya Adejokun,
Senior
Correspondent, Abuja
International economic magazine, The Econimist has backed the insistence by
President Olusegun Obasanjo to peg the 2005 budget on $27 per barrel.
Nenad Pacek, Director, Central Eastern Europe, Middle East
and Africa of the magazine’s Corporate Network at a briefing to herald
the coming first business roundtable with the government of Nigeria in Abuja on
Thursday said it was smart to be conservative when benchmarking budgetary
projections on oil price.
“It is smart to be conservative when it comes to oil
prices. Most governments all over the world that are dependent on oil revenue
put in their budget slightly lower figures than expected oil price” Pacek
said.
He noted that fiscal imbalance would be affected if higher
prices are chosen over lower figures. Setting the benchmark at $27 he said was
good for Nigeria because “it will provide extra funds for the Nigerian
government which it can use for investments.
Pacek noted that Nigeria will benefit immensely from the
decision to be conservative because oil prices would hover around $37 per
barrel in 2005.
Current crude oil prices he continued, are unnaturally high
as they were mainly decided by speculations rather than the factors of demand
and supply. There would continue to be a progressive reduction in world oil
prices in the coming years with forecasts predicting $30 per barrel in 2006.
These predictions, he explained, underscore the necessity to
urgently pursue investments in other fields like manufacturing, agriculture and
tourism as there would be a significant
impact oneconomic growth on the nation’s economy which would see
reduction in growth from the 10 per cent recorded in 2003.
Economist Conferences which is a member of the Economist
Group he said, is fully funding theconference commencing on January 17, 2005
but with sponsorship from private corporate organisations.
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