Expert says no danger to Nigeria
By Chukwuma Muanya
and Abdulhakeem Akanbi
NIGERIA is for now far from suffering a fate similar to that of Asia and some parts of East Africa, which were hit by tidal waves on Sunday, killing over 24,000 persons.
This assurance came from the Chief Meteorologist at the Central Forecast Office of Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Oshodi, Lagos, Mr. Samson Wilson.
But he feared that the tidal waves could occur in Nigeria from about May to August.
He told The Guardian: "For now, Nigeria does not have any threat. It could happen in Nigeria around May, June, July, August, but not now. The tidal waves from the India Ocean cannot move through East Africa passing through massive land."
The meteorologist also said that the first rains in Nigeria would start from the coastal areas in mid-March, 2005.
He said: "It will start from the coastal area and build up gradually to the northern part of the country sometime around May.
"But now, we cannot exercise any fear. We are having mainly northly winds coming from the desert, and not from the `ocean."
He admitted that it was possible some years back that things such as this happened but not in this magnitude. Wilson also observed that the weather had in recent times become more unfriendly and violent and Nigeria could not afford to fold its hands.
He gave the assurance that the country had the capacity to monitor such events. "We have facilities to monitor such an occurrence in Nigeria. There is a ship off the coast of Bar Beach, Eastmole. We have our observatory there," he stated.
He continued: "For this season, no! there is no threat of tidal waves - induced flooding in Nigeria. But for now, we are focusing our mind on May, June, July, August and possibly September. There is always a season for anything that happens. For instance, this is a dry season and we do not expect rain. So, Nigerians should not be worried for now. It is only towards May 2005 ending that we will begin to look out for what the signal looks like.
"You cannot prevent a natural phenomenon from happening, but you can only take precautionary measure. If they had a good monitoring centre, there would have been warning and evacuation of people. But this was sudden. If it were not sudden, you tell the people and evacuate them."
Wilson feared that the continuous reclaiming of land in Lagos, especially around the Lekki area, may lead to flooding in the near future.
According to him, Nigeria has had a feel of flooding around the Bar Beach area caused by man-made factors. "Nigeria has seen partly the implication. Reclaiming of Lekki is compounding it. We have seen part of it. If we continue disturbing the natural environment by pushing on water to claim land, Nigeria may be heading for doom," Wilson said.
Wilson said that flooding induced by tidal waves could be caused by so many factors. It may be as a result of strong wind across the ocean, melting iceberg or differential heating of water body.
He said: "There are so many causes. It could be as a result of so many factors. Take Bar Beach as a typical example. We were lucky the force was not so much, it was gradual. The tidal wave that hit Bar Beach is of the same family with the one that hit Asia, but the latter has a higher magnitude. There are so many reasons.
"A lot of factors can generate such tidal waves, and as it travels out, it builds in intensity. When something is heated, it overflows its container and causes flooding. In case of the Asian catastrophe, it was as a result of an earthquake that generated a wave somewhere in the middle of the ocean.
"It could also be generated by differential heating of water bodies and may be melting of iceberg.
'The most driving factor is the winds that generate the waves. Some other factors can generate the waves. For this wave to travel and its strength, depend on the wind. That is why some people call it storm, not rain or thunderstorm."
Tidal waves called Isunamis triggered by what has been described as the worst earthquake in 40 years, on Boxing Day swept through villages and sea side resorts across Asia, killing more than 24,000 people in more than five countries.
Recent reports have it that the flooding has spread to some parts of East Africa.`
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