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Asia Quake Could Happen in Nigeria � Experts
�Active fracture zone in Nigeria-Cameroun border could sack Niger-Delta, Lagos By Tokunbo Adedoja, Joseph Ushigiale, Paul Ohia, Andrew Ahiante and Oghenekevwe Laba with agency report, 12.29.2004
The under sea quake off the coast of Indonesia and across East Asia which has so far claimed 60,000 lives may be far away from Nigeria, but experts yesterday warn that the Nigerian government must be on the alert. The country�s western boundary with Cameroun, the experts said, is an active volcanic region prone to volcanic eruptions capable of causing tsunamis, or fast tidal waves particularly as Sao Tome & Principe Island emerged many years ago from volcanic eruption. The experts, who stated that the government must immediately swing into action through the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Ministry of Science and Technology, said the Federal Government should immediately commence studies and other measures aimed at confronting the danger that may arise from the eruption. Speaking in separate interviews yesterday with THISDAY, Dr. (Mrs.) Olusola Dublin-Green, who is an Assistant Director, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR), Lagos, Lieutenant Commander Mohammed Wabi, the Navy's Public Relations Officer (NPRO), Western Naval Command, Apapa, Lagos, and Dr. Ernest A. Afiesimama, Head, Environmental, Climate Predictions, Nigerian Meteoro-logical Agency (NIMET), explained that though such natural disasters have never occurred in the Atlantic Ocean, but warned that the nation should not relax, as "a stitch in time saves nine". Afiesimama said the West Africa sub-region has every reason to be grateful to God that disasters as earthquake that has just occured in Asia do not happened here. "We do not expect such in the country or in the sub-region either now or in the immediate future. The only area, where we could probably think of a natural disaster as that is in the Western boundary of the country with Cameroon, where there is an active volcanic region. Even Mount Cameroon is volcanic. Other than that, we do not expect such a disaster here, may be thunderstorms, which may not be as disastrous", Afiesimama said. "Nigeria should be prepared. Though it is not possible to predict when such disasters will take place, there is need to prepare for evacuation", Dublin-Green said. "Tsunamis or fast tidal waves is caused by earthquake, sudden eruption or landslide water waves. It occurs in the offshore, deep in the ocean, but has serious effect on land", she further explained. While allaying fear of possible occurence in Nigeria, Dublin-Green explained that the nation may not experience the eruption, as the Atlantic Ocean has no history of such natural disasters. "This is rampant in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Geographically, their plates are daily active. This brings lots of fracture zones. The fracture zone is therefore weak. Luckily for us in the Atlantic, the plate is more stable. In the Pacific, you see many Islands resulting from the weak plate. It is more passive for us here in the Atlantic Ocean. But we also have fracture zones there deep offshores, one of which is also active", she warned. The fractures zones include Romanche (western), Chain (western flank), Charcot (more of the Niger Delta and Cameroon FZ (Eastern Boundary of Nigeria), which the expert said, was active. She explained that Somalia and some other African countries were affected because they were in the same Ocean with Indonesia. "We are quite a distance away from Indonesia. But, it affects Somalia and some other countries which are also in India Ocean. We are in the Atlantic. Geographically, the Atlantic is not that active. It does not mean that something like that cannot happen here because of the plate", she said, citing the Lake Chad gaseous emission as an example. She also noted that earthquake is very difficult to predict, as it could only be recorded. "There are equipment for that. The Tsunamis comes after the earthquake. The sea will be displaced. It took two hours after the Tsunamis for the earthquake to reach the land, the nearest which is Indonesia and Sri Lanka. As it moves towards the land, it generates more energy and weight," she explained. A World Bank consultant, who is also the Director, Centre for Planning and Research, Department of Geography, Lagos State University (LASU), Dr. Ayo Omotayo said when Tsunamis occur, "they splush and push water at varying levels of speed at different directions beyond what is normal. Because of the vastness and epicentre of the earthquake, the waves were able to move in different directions propelled by the nine aftershocks which made it possible for them to migrate to these African countries about 10 hours later at a reduced speed." The susceptibility of the Nigerian-Cameroun border, however portends great danger for Nigeria in particular and its West African neighbours which are located on the same plane. For example, the possibility of tsunami occuring in the Nigerian-Cameroun border puts at great risk the nation�s oil producing states of Cross River, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta as well as Lagos which is the nation�s commercial nerve centre. These are low line areas, housing fishing communities which may end up being wiped off the map in case of a tsunami. In Lagos, areas like Victoria Island, Apapa, Lekki up to Epe with its high brow residential and commercial buildings would be affected. The implication of any underwater quake in the Nigeria Cameroun fracture zone therefore is that those areas which serve as home for many communities will be wiped out and those are densely populated areas. The high casualty figures expected from the natural disaster may even be very difficult to ascertain because of the difficult terrain. Also, experts believe that the underdeveloped nature of the Niger Delta area may make it difficult to access for rescue purposes. The economic implication of such a development, expert said, is that oil production which is the principal foreign exchange earner for the nation will be wiped off. The oil rigs, production platforms and other facilities will be devastated. As the largest oil producing nation in Africa and fifth largest in the world, the inability of Nigeria to produce crude oil will impact on world oil prices. But it is believed that the larger implication of any tsunami in the Nigerian-Cameroun border is the possible havoc it wreck across the West African sub-region. About six other West African nations like Benin Republic, Cameroun, Togo, Gabon, Sao Tome & Principe, Cote D�Ivoire and Burkina Faso may record serious geographical and economic dislocation. The tsunami in the Nigeria-Cameroun border can put about 100 million people in danger on that West African plate as well as investments worth trillions of naira. The human displacement, economic crisis and social upheavals that the occurence of tsunami in the Nigeria-Cameroun border may cause in the sub-region, across Africa has however, led the experts to ask the question - how ready is Nigeria to handle an emergency resulting from under water quake? The experts believe that the Nigeria Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) which failed to quickly respond when the Ikeja Cantonment bomb blast occured needs to ask itself whether it has necessary facilities to detect on time the possibility of an underwater quake or whether it has enough facilities to evcuate victims, get them to the hospital, clear rubbles to determine number of casualties and provide relief to victims. One of the experts contacted by THISDAY, Prof. Lekan Oyebande said with the satellite Nigeria is launching and if monitoring improves and the right people are put in place, then the nation may be prepared to confront any serious threat of natural disaster. He also suggested three things that must be done by the Federal Government in relation to natural disasters. These include taking pro-active measure in terms of predicting these disasters when they are going to occur. This, he said, requires data, which are expensive and which could help prevent disasters such as flood. Oyebande also said the country must take management measure on how to handle disasters and the type of information to be given out to people. The third thing, he said, is what he called the post mortem, which include analyses on how to do better and having a competent technical team that is capable of assessing situation. In the same vein, Wabi said although such incident has not been experienced in Nigerian waters, he urged the Federal Government to be prepared to prevent it and if possible, put in place necessary rescue facilities and arrangement to curtail it in the event of such occurence. "The effect of the sea waves was felt in the horn of Africa, including Ethiopia. The possibility of it happening in Nigeria one day may be there, hence it is necessary for government to put in place modalities for the prevention of its occurrence. It should also put in place rescue operation mission and facilities so as to lessen the rate of casualties where it happens", he said. The Naval officer who described tsunamis as accumulation of waves and tidal effects from ferocious winds, equally advised that government should work hand in hand with the meteorological department, assess their recommendations and implement them so as to avert possible occurrence. Meanwhile, United Nations assessment team has been dispatched to Somalia to study the extent of damage done by the earthquake that hit several African countries arising from the Tsunami in Asia Sunday.. Hundreds of Somalis were feared drowned in the massive waves produced by Sunday's undersea earthquake off the coast of Indonesia. Large waves struck Kenya, Tanzania, Mauritius, Reunion, Madagascar and the Seychelles Waves swept 7,000km (4,000 miles) from the epicentre to strike East African islands and the coast. The government in Somalia's north-east state of Puntland, told BBC News that 48 bodies had been found. In the Kenyan port town of Malindi, where a 20-year-old swimmer reportedly drowned, fishermen ventured back in the water on Monday to gather the remains of their boats. Elsewhere in Sri Lanka mourners used their bare hands to dig graves yesterday while hungry islanders in Indonesia turned to looting in the aftermath of Asia's devastating tsunamis. Thousands more bodies were found in Indonesia, dramatically increasing the death toll across 11 nations to around 44,000. Emergency workers who reached Aceh province at the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island found that 10,000 people had been killed in a single town, Meulaboh, said Purnomo Sidik, national disaster director at the Social Affairs Ministry. Another 9,000 were confirmed dead so far in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh, and surrounding towns, amid unconfirmed reports that other towns along Aceh's west coast had been demolished, he said. In Sri Lanka, the toll also mounted significantly. Around 1,000 people were dead or missing and feared dead from a train that was flung off its tracks when the gigantic waves hit. Rescuers pulled 204 bodies from the train's eight carriages - reduced to twisted metal - and cremated or buried them next to the railroad track that runs along the coastline. More than 18,700 people died in Sri Lanka, more than 4,000 in India and more than 1,500 in Thailand, with numbers expected to rise. The Indonesian vice president's estimate that his country's coastlines held up to 25,000 victims brought the potential toll up to 50,000. One of the world's largest relief efforts is under way to help the millions of victims of the Asia quake. International disaster assessment teams have fanned out to the affected countries and local agencies are distributing emergency aid. The UN said it faces an unprecedented challenge in co-ordinating distribution of aid to some 10 nations at one time. Millions of people are homeless, and the disaster zone is now threatened with outbreaks of disease. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India and Thailand were among the worst hit by Sunday's 9.0 magnitude earthquake, which sent huge waves from Malaysia to Africa. The extent of the disaster in some remote regions is not yet known but, as rescue workers discover more bodies, the true extent of the tsunami's devastation is becoming clearer: The bodies of more than 700 mainly foreign tourists have been found in the Thai resort of Khao Lak - the government said the death toll in Thailand may rise to about 2,000. Though it was not the biggest tsunami on record, "the effects may be the biggest ever because many more people live in exposed areas than ever before", said UN emergency relief co-ordinator Jan Egeland. He said the relief operation would probably cost "many billions of dollars".
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