2007: Understanding IBB's Place in History
By Sherif Koko
There is no doubt that the on-going emotive reaction to the touted 2007 Presidential ambition of General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, among others leaves much to be desired. The primary goal of public commentary is to beam a searchlight on issues, with a view to providing a clear picture of what is going on in the nation to the uninformed and confused citizens.
However, many commentaries have tended to be media for the distribution of heat rather than being a light to guide the footsteps of both the leadership and followers. In order to remedy this apparent disconnection between what should be (ideal) and what is happening (reality),there is need for a detached commentary. Since adequate appreciation of the past would enable us make reasonable judgment for the future, I think it is imperative that the person of Gen. Babangida be subjected to a close study. Duality of man cannot be denied, thus, the complexity of the phenomenom call I.B.B. becomes obvious. In the circumstance this write up is only out to provoke a rational and fact based analysis of his person. In order to situate the study in a proper perspective, I shall take off with the portraiture of IBB by Margaret Thatcher and Proffessor Ojetunji Aboyade. Margaret
Thatcher captures, IBB, thus, " he was a forceful, intelligent man trying to put Nigeria's economy on to a sounder footing and in due course, we hoped, to create the conditions for a restoration of democracy." (Please see p.525 of "The Downing Street Years"). On the other hand, Professor Ojetunji Aboyade described him this way "..............Babangida is extremely kind, warm, intelligent and very easy to get along with. ............... Babangida is a gamesman. Even when he feels convinced on an issue and he finds that he is alone or he is not carrying his team with him, he backs out" (excerpts from newswatch, May 16, 1988).
These two character sketches highlight the atomic nature of IBB's personality i.e. a continuing struggle between comradeship and conviction. I shall use the June 12 election annulment as the benchmark to examine this conflict. Many commentators, read the annulment as being in furtherance of an agenda to perpetuate self in office, but I think otherwise. I depose that the June 12 election was annulled because I suspect Babangida had a pact with Gen. Sani Abacha to be the successor, but IBB was convinced that Abacha was not suitable and he did not want to hand over to him, but lacked the courage of his conviction to retire Gen. Abacha and hand over to Chief M.K.O Abiola.This assertion is premised on the following grounds: -
I believe heart in heart that the August 27 1985 coup-de-tat was coordinated by the late Gen.Sani Abacha, based on the fact that IBB was in Minna on D-day. It was Abacha that provided the physical backbone to the storm troopers i.e. Umar, Aminu and
Shagaya on the execution of the coup-de-tat. Moreover, in the early days of the regime it was reported in the media, that Abacha took exception to Commodore Ukiwe being referred to as the number two in the administration. This would appear to be a Freudian slip of a conspirator who feels that the pact is being threatened.
It is therefore not incongruous to suggest that the premature retirement of Ebitu Ukiwe was only a removal of a hurdle on the way. Thirdly, I strongly suspect the sideways movement of Gen. Domkat Bali to Internal Affairs was to clear the obstacles on the succession path. Fourthly, the nominal retirement of Admiral Aikomu from the Armed forces but continuing to function as the vice-president would appear to be part of the grand design for the ascendancy. Fifthly, there was no rational reason to have cancelled the 1992 primaries other than the fact that there was not to be any democratic transition. As an aside, may I state that the cancellation is worse than annulment because ordinarily primaries are an intra party affair, which should not have aroused the intervention of Government. Sixthly, I am aware that the Jos S.D.P primary was to be cancelled presumptuously on the evidence of malpractices provided by Kingibe and Nzeribe, but, the plan was thwarted by the networking efforts of Obasanjo, Danjuma, and Y'ardua on the need to redeem the integrity of the Armed forces.
On the seventh count, we were all aware that the June 12 election was to be postponed based on the Abuja High court nocturnal judgment, but the U.S.I.S. Director's statement aborted the plan.
Eighthly, I am aware that the last but one meeting of the A.F.R.C was stalemated by Abacha, because, in spite of the recommendation of the tripartite agreement of the S.D.P, N.R.C and Armed Forces to have a civilian transition Head of State, Abacha was insisting on a military Interim Head of State.
Moreover, I have to learn that in the course of the Orkar coup, that Babangida from his hideout got a phone call through to Col. Raji Rasaki, fingering Abacha as the coup-leader. It was Rasaki that re-assured him that Abacha had contacted Bamaiyi and was mobilizing to counter the coup-de-tat. This suspicion could safely be interpreted to mean that IBB feared that there was a fast forward attempt to unilaterally actualize the pre-arranged succession agreement.
Lastly, why were the political and relatively junior service Chiefs retired on the eve of the hand-over to the Interim Government and the most senior was retained.?
In essence, I strongly suspect that there was a pact between IBB and Abacha, prior, to the 1985 coup-de-tat. The subsequent shifting of the terminal dates was only a manifestation of a personal struggle within Babangida on his fidelity to a comrade and his duty to the Nigerian nation. IBB is not strongly disinterested in having another shot at the presidency, if the environment is right. I think the question we should be asking IBB is, that considering his antecedents and the apparent dilemma, would it be reasonable to give him a second chance to sacrifice the national interest on the altar of personal consideration or better still may I conclude by quoting Professor Aboyade again " I would hope that biographers, historians, psychologists would study this man in depth because he intrigues me. Maybe somebody like Wole Soyinka, somebody with that kind of skill who can capture his totality. He intrigues me. I found it much easier to predict General Obasanjo because he will tell you straight off "I don't agree" and he is so combative, we will argue. But once he says "yes" it is "yes". This is a different person."
KOKO is a public affairs analyst based in Lagos.
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