Despite his copious denials of not having any interest in Tinubu's job, his close associates say that Ogunlewe is a serious contender. The on-going face-off between the state government and the Minister is seen as part of the plot to "rattle" the governor and his political support.
Those suspected to be nursing the ambition to occupy the Round House in 2007 are Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Chief Omotilewa Aro-Lambo, Dr. Leke Pitan, the Deputy Governor, Femi Pedro,Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and Chief Remi Adikwu-Bakare. This is the AD line up.
The PDP may have begun its campaign in earnest. The party has chosen Ogunlewe to lead its campaign to capture Lagos in 2007.
The National Working Committee (NWC) of the party at a meeting in Abuja on Tuesday to reconcile the factions of Lagos PDP gave Ogunlewe the task. The National Publicity Secretary of the party, Mr. Venatius Ikem, said that the meeting was to resolve the disagreements among members with a view to positioning the party in the state.
He said that the meeting praised Ogunlewe for his achievements in government and the party in Lagos. He said that the meeting took note of the "tremendous impact" that the party made in Lagos, adding that the rank of the PDP was being swelled by decampees from other parties.
In an interview, Ogunlewe said that he was working hard to redress the controversies during Funsho Williams tenure as Commissioner of Works in the state. During his tenure, the poor maintenance of roads in Lagos was attributed to "no bitumen" by Williams who was the PDP governorship candidate in the 2003 polls.
In the meantime, leaders of the Pan-Ndigbo National Forum (PNF), one of the groups that nurtured the party in Lagos has urged Ogunlewe to carry non-indigenes along in his efforts to prosecute the campaigns.
Chief Guy Ikokwu, the president of the group, said Lagos PDP was losing its cosmopolitan nature because of the "hijacking" of the party by the indigenes. He argued that the PDP could not afford to approach the 2007 polls in the state as a divided house, if it intends to beat the AD in the race to the Round-House.
Beside Ogunlewe, the other PDP aspirants, are Lanre Rasaq and Mrs. Onikepo Oshodi. The other political parties for now may have decided to let the AD and PDP settle the power play in the state.
Though, it may be too early to bet on the governorship race in the state, some factors are undeniably going to determine who becomes the next governor. First, is the ability to have a structure, good organisation, strong financial war chest, and ability to carry along the people of the grassroots. Beyond these, the party that will produce the governor will be the party that has its house in order.
The AD and the PDP in the state are in crisis. While the AD at the national level, is struggling to mend fences over the organisation of parallel conventions, the crisis within the PDP is defying all solutions, requiring the intervention of the national headquarters of the party. While the Deputy National Chairman (South-West) Chief Bode George, Ogunlewe and Muritala Ashorobi are leading one camp, Chief Abimbola Ogunkelu, a former minister, Dr. Adesola Taiwo and Oshodi are leading the other faction.
Apparently set to put its house in order, the AD has decided to organise the governorship primaries in good time to make room for the settlement of any differences that might arise. However, within the party, there are extensive subterranean moves in the battle for Tinubu's job.
On the number of aspirants in the AD, Afikuyomi's aspiration is strengthened by virtue of the fact that he has been working on it for a long time. The state Deputy Governor Pedro may have his eyes on the top job, but it is uncertain between him, Obanikoro and Afikuyomi who will inherit the political structure of Tinubu to take on the PDP.
Recently, supporters were alleged to have met secretly with the State House of Assembly members to lobby for support for Pedro.
For now, Afikuyomi seems to be enjoying the confidence of the governor. Along with Tinubu, he has been active since the Social Democratic Party (SDP) days. They were also in NADECO, during the struggle for the re-validation of June 12 election. He was also part of Tinubu's team that negotiated with Funsho Williams in the wake of the crisis that enveloped the AD in 1999 before Tinubu emerged as governor.
Apart from this personal relationship with Tinubu, Afikuyomi is considered a loyal party man. Of the three AD senators in 1999, only Afikuyomi did not decamp to the PDP.
On the issue of been an indigene or not, Afikuyomi says that he was born in Lagos, worked and paid his taxes in the state. Besides, he said he was protected by the 1999 Constitution, which gives room for anybody who has lived in any place for over 10 years to contest any election.
Obanikoro, a political son of Tinubu is also eyeing the 2007 governorship seat in Lagos. The governor was the major force behind his election to the Senate. He was chairman of Island Local Council and Commissioner of Home Affairs during Tinubu's first term. Obanikoro's nomination and emergence as senator had the backing of Tinubu and this was for strategic reasons. When Ogunlewe and Wahab Dosumu who had gone to the Senate on the platform of the AD, decamped to the PDP, the AD in Lagos reasoned that it was necessary for Tinubu to get his loyalist to the Upper House.
However, such an ambition is said to be presently adversely affected by the activities of Obanikoro. For instance, Obanikoro failed to tow the position and decision of the South-West AD in the emergency rule proclaimed by President Olusegun Obasanjo in Plateau State. While AD Senators at a meeting at Afikuyomi's house in Abuja decided to vote against the emergency rule, Obanikoro reportedly did otherwise. He claimed to have abstained from voting because he could not stop the president from taking measures to stop the bloodletting going on in Plateau.
Apart from this, Obanikoro is also alleged to be attending PDP meetings with a possibility of getting the deputy governor's ticket, depending on the political equation. These allegations which Obanikoro has denied, is being reinforced by his opponent though. Nevertheless, one of the things he has going for him is the fact that he is seen as an indigene. This of recent has become an issue and a possible strong campaign weapon.
Aro-Lambo, the political power-house of Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu before he moved to Tinubu's camp in the AD, is expected to offer a stiff opposition in the governorship race. However, his supporters worry that he might not have the financial muscle to prosecute the ambition. They also decry his conservative attitude, which is also seen as a handicap. He is however, a man with tremendous links with the grassroots, especially in the Lagos Island area.
Adiukwu-Bakare's appointment as Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftancy Affairs was interpreted as a move to place her at an advantage, especially to reach the grassroots. However, the appointment of two special advisers to the governor on local government affairs may have taken the shine out of Bakare's armour. The fact that she has just joined the AD from the PDP makes her to be viewed as an outsider of sorts.
In the PDP, Ogunlewe seems a sure bet to get the ticket of the party if he decides to contest. He is working to make the state�s roads passable, but his face-off with the state government might set him against the people.
Chief Rasaq still has some catching up to do in the PDP. His chances of even getting the ticket of the PDP if he decides to run will be tested against the Works Minister.
Despite the array of politicians that the AD and PDP parade, it is likely that the battle will be less between the individuals than with the parties. `
Though, it may be too early to bet on the governorship race in the state, some factors are undeniably going to determine who becomes the next governor. First, is the ability to have a structure, good organisation, deep war chest, and ability to carry along the people of the grassroots Beyond these, the party that will produce the governor will be the party that has its house in order`
Although the next general election is still three years away, the build-up to who succeeds Ahmed Bola Tinubu in Lagos State could be said to have started. Perhaps that is understandable. Of the South-West states, only Lagos escaped the blitzkrieg of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in the 2003 general elections, which almost killed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the zone
