SINCE the debate over the zoning of the presidency in 2007 took on a renewed burst of kinesis, I have been reading the body language of the typical Yoruba. Of all the ethno-political tendencies of Nigeria, the people of the South West have tended to be the most predictable. When they move, you are left in little doubt as to the direction Yoruba nation has decided to go. They illustrate the concept of “block votes” more graphically than the rest. And that is why, whether the country is under military or civilian dispensation, whether the Yoruba are in power or opposition, they have remained relevant in Nigerian politics since our independence.
As soon as President Olusegun Obasanjo gained the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for a second term in office there was initially a general Yoruba inclination to see 2007 as the year of the “return of political power to the north”. But soon after that, the propensity has been dissipating somewhat. While some think power will go back to the north others are now saying wait a minute, what of South East and South South – are they not Nigerians? While the general pro-north inclination lasted, the conventional wisdom was that Governor Peter Odili of Rivers State was President Obasanjo’s choice for the position of Vice President to a yet to be determined presidential candidate from the north.
As if to affirm this tendency, Obasanjo’s number one political henchman, Chief Tony Anenih, was quoted shortly after the President was sworn-in for second term, that he would support a “credible” northern candidate for the presidency in 2007. Since that time, a few quiet political games have been taking place. One of them was the drafting of Anenih to the position of Chairman, Board of Trustees (BOT) of the PDP, which was vacated by Dr. Alex Ekwueme to contest the presidency in 2003.
Ekwueme has since expressed his willingness to have the post back if it was offered him. The Party does not seem eager to do that as it did before. Rather, Anenih has been trying to use the largely nominal post of the BOT chairmanship to boost his clout within the Party as the challenges of preparing for 2007 gradually warm up. He has been going round the zones, ostensibly to “reconcile” its members, but more strategically to prepare them for the game to come from the Obasanjo perspective of it.
IN recent times, Anenih has started singing another tune. The Presidency is now open for all Nigerians. He is no longer actively selling the imminence of power shift to the north in 2007.
Another cryptic implication of his move to the PDP’s BOT is probably that the Obasanjo camp in the party has changed its mind from the earlier intention to position Anenih as the successor of the current National Chairman of the Party, Chief Audu Ogbeh.
The former calculation was that Anenih as the PDP Chairman would work out Obasanjo’s northern succession in a way that would fit perfectly into the President’s “orderly withdrawal” programme. The situation on ground at the moment appears to favour the sponsorship of Obasanjo’s known northern acolyte to the powerful position of PDP National Chairman in the event that a northerner does not emerge as the Party’s candidate after all.
THE current situation is meant to send the signal that the only thing that can be considered “impossible” is the emergence of South Westerner as the presidential candidate of the PDP in 2007, for obvious reasons. What this means is that, by the body movements of the Obasanjo campers, a northern candidate in 2007 is as possible as a non-Yoruba-speaking southern candidate. Who, then, can we expect the President and his campers to nudge into the pool of candidates, which for now consists of northerners such as General Ibrahim Babangida, Vice President Atiku Abubakar and retired Brigadier-General Buba Marwa?
Top on the list (at least so far) is Governor Odili. Of all the President’s gubernatorial acolytes in the south, Odili has partnered most closely with Obasanjo. Apart from presiding over the strategic Rivers State and Port Harcourt, Odili has contributed immensely to Obasanjo’s political programmes, particularly his battles to overcome the National Assembly and secure a second term of office. In return, Obasanjo has been promoting Odili’s political visibility.
He encouraged the Ooni of Ife, Oba Sijuade, to give Odili a grand traditional title and personally attended the governor’s daughter’s wedding recently. Sources close to the governor are now hinting that Odili has quietly upgraded his aspiration from Vice President to “something higher”. But of course, it is still a very tentative gambit, which can be quickly repositioned if the need arises.
APART from Odili, two Obasanjo loyalists from the South East are also full of hope that the “open field” Obasanjo is creating for the presidency 2007 can conduce to their own aspirations. One of them is Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Obasanjo’s Adviser on Inter-Party Affairs. Okorocha has made it clear that he would reopen his quest for the presidency “at the appropriate time”. The other person is the Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani.
Though he has not made any categorical statement on the 2007 succession controversy, some of his aides have often described him as “an elected office seeker” and they stiffly brush aside all suggestions of the Vice Presidential slot. It is believed that as an Obasanjo loyalist in the highly challenging (for Obasanjo) South East terrain who has also partnered with the President in ways similar to Odili’s contributions, Nnamani “has paid his dues” and can afford to be “expectant”.
The second part of this write-up will address other intrinsic indices that stand to the advantage of southern prospective aspirants, apart from an Obasanjo open field impetus. We will also see why, in spite of these advantages, some other governors from the south such as Victor Attah of Akwa Ibom, Lucky Igbinedion of Edo and Orji Kalu of Abia States, are promoting the presidency of the north. Why the sweeping timidity among southern governors in the face of fierce agitation by their northern counterparts? See you on Monday.
Cross-check this operational phrase...
I have been an ardent reader of your column. So far you have been
doing well. Keep it up. But your article of Monday June 28 entitled: ‘IBB, Atiku men at war in Lagos’, contained some ideas which do not fit into the source to which you ascribed them.
The operational, phrase which can be found in the middle of the second paragraph, is where you asserted that “Purgatory in the Roman Catholic doctrinal orthodoxy, connotes the place where dead persons ‘chill out’ before they are finally consigned to heaven or hell. It is the midpoint between death and heaven/hell”.
From the Catholic perspective, those who go to Purgatory will never be consigned to hell. They are heaven–bound. To be precise, “all who die in God’s grace and friendship, but still imperfectly purified, are indeed assured of their eternal salvation; but after death they undergo purification, so as to achieve the holiness necessary to enter the joy of heaven”. Hence, heaven is the portion of those who go to Purgatory and not hell.
Thanks and remain blessed in the Lord
Nwankwo Pius, Cmf
St. Augustine’s Parish
Ikorodu.
