2007: Again, Anenih Plays Nostradamus
For those who have closely followed political developments since the inception of this republic, the second name for Chief Tony Anenih, former Minister of Works and Housing during President Olusegun Obasanjo's first term and current Acting chairman, Peoples Democratic Party's Board of Trustees (BOT) is Controversy. Anenih is a man of few words, Joseph Ushigiale reports that if Anenih eventually decides to speak, as he has already done on the 2007 presidency, his words are loaded with predictions
As always, the acting chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Board of Trustees (BOT), Chief Tony Anenih chose his timing correctly. The gathering was at Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, President Olusegun Obasanjo's home state, venue of a meeting between Anenih and members of the South-west zone.
In a well measured language, Anenih pronounced that Obasanjo rather than the PDP and Nigerians would determine who succeeds him. In foreclosing any transparent and impartial method of electing an Obasanjo's successor, Anenih also advised those who have already kick-started their 2007 presidential campaigns to tarry awhile.
"It is the President, not even me or the national chairman of the party or the party that will determine who will become the next President," Anenih announced to his bewildered audience during the closed door meeting.
Not done, BOT boss roused another controversy by stating that Obasanjo ought to have continued "because he is doing well, but the problem is that he is statues barred."
As if to remind the zone of the important role their new found political poweress would play in the unfolding 2007 scenario, Anenih advised them not to despair "as in the fullness of time, the right candidate to succeed the President in 2007 will emerge."
Anenih's latest outburst is hardly coming as a surprise, under this dispensation, and since he came on stream, Anenih has elevated such topical utterances to an art form and insisting on adopting both conventional and unconventional means to ensure that his predictions come to pass. And they all have.
For instance, early in the life of Obasanjo's first term, when Nigerians were yet unaware of where the pendulum would swing in 2003, it was Anenih who threw his hat into the political ring by predicting that there was no vacancy in Aso Rock as the presidential villa was then known.
During that period, Anenih, who was a guest of Governor Lucky Igbinedion of Edo State, at an official ceremony, announced that there was no vacancy in Aso Rock. In apparent reference to those clamouring then to succeed Obasanjo in 2003, Anenih seized the moment to foreclose that possibility. Many believe that Obasanjo's final decision to run for a second term was bolstered by this bold move initiated by Anenih.
Undone, it was Anenih again who came on song when the clamour by those angling to take over from PDP governors in the states was becoming a distraction, that pronounced in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital that all PDP governors would return.
Although the national chairman of the party, Chief Audu Ogbeh distanced the party from the statement, stating that it was Anenih's personal opinion, all the PDP governors, except Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju secured a second term to make Anenih's prediction come to pass.
As for the presidency, the result of the April 2003 presidential elections left few in doubt that the outcome of Anenih's predictions could only be contradicted by divine intervention. He remains the only person to date with that unbeatable record.
Perhaps, it is this ability to perfectly predict political outcomes, that Anenih's confidence has been bolstered to railroad his present political joker ahead the 2007 presidential election. An election that is although three years away, but he is already predicting can only be determined by the incumbent, Obasanjo.
Anenih's political runs and permutations are not unfolding unchallenged. Barely few days after Anenih's curious prediction, Governor Orji Uzor Kalu faulted Anenih's position by declaring that Obasanjo can not single-handedly select his successor.
Kalu, in his reaction, said allowing Obasanjo to single-handedly choose a successor would not only be undemocratic but also amount to standing democracy on its head. He insisted that Obasanjo, who is entitled to a vote could influence the direction of the 2007 presidency through the lobbying of delegates but not by presidential fiat as Anenih is already setting an agenda.
"Our President is not the only party man. The decision will lie on party delegates. The party delegates will decide who will be president and this is where the decision lies," Kalu clarified.
According to him, "it is not the President who will choose his successor. The President has only one vote. If they say the President can influence the party delegates, that I agree. He can call them to the side and lobby them."
Although the issue would continue to stimulate important discourse within political circles in the days ahead, Anenih's latest position has confirmed the nature of politics in the country, which is that there is hardly a free and fair election in the country and that an incumbent, in spite of clearly outlined constitutional provisions, subverts the process to supplant a successor.
It is also for this singular reason that all results of past presidential elections in the country have never been accepted on their face value. This precedent started in 1979 during Obasanjo's reign as military head of state.
The Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) under the late Chief Michael Ani conducted the 1978 general election that led to the 1979 hand-over of power to a democratically elected government. Ani announced Alhaji Shehu Shagari the presidential candidate of National Party of Nigeria (NPN) as winner, but his opponent, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria contested the result.
His legal protest endured to the Supreme Court where the duo of Chief Richard Akinjide and Professor Emeritus, Chike Obi had to untie the knotty legal implication of 2/3 of 19 states purportedly won by Shagari for a new government to be formed.
In 1983, protests that trailed the NPN's landslide victory laid a solid foundation for the return of the military. Ten years later, a fresh attempt to usher in a democratically elected government was truncated by General Ibrahim Babangida, an incumbent who cited discomfort within the military over a possible Moshood Abiola's presidency, as reason for the annulment of the June 12, 2003 presidential elections.
The situation was not different in 1999, when Chief Olu Falae disagreed with the result of that year's presidential election which he lost to Obasanjo. In the build-up to 1999, especially the circumstance under which Obasanjo was released from prison, his subsequent drafting into the presidential race and his eventual emergence were more than a mere coincidence to Falae who believes that Babangida, with the assistance of Major General Abdulsalami Abubakar, an incumbent, facilitated Obasanjo's victory.
Even the result of the 2003 presidential election is still being contested in court by General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) candidate who is alleging irregularities and wide spread electoral malpractices by the PDP.
The implication of Anenih's latest utterance only underscores one thing, and that is that the PDP would again manipulate the electoral system to pick the next President in 2007. Should this be allowed to happen, even when notice has been served long before 2007, the future of democracy can no longer be assured in the country.
Apart from the issue of Obasanjo choosing his successor, Anenih also re-opened what many had considered an already dead and buried issue: That of a third term for Obasanjo.
Before now, speculations over Obasanjo's interest in a third term had risen to the point of embarrassing Obasanjo and his administration. Many reasoned that for a President who was literally coaxed to run in 1999, begged to return in 2003, what would he be seeking a third term for?
Apparently worried by the implication of these speculations and the signals they were sending, Obasanjo had to dispel the rumour during one of his media chat sessions.
In his reaction, Obasanjo said "the thought of a third term could only come from a person with a warped mind. How would I now do what I had the opportunity of doing and was persuaded to do by people both and home and abroad and which I rejected in 1979?"
It is refreshing that Anenih had with his excuse that "he (Obasanjo) is doing well, but the problem is that he is statutes barred", put a face to the previously faceless agitators for Obasanjo's third term. Perhaps, it was to Anenih that Obasanjo used those words to describe those hoping to conscript him into playing such an ignoble role as chasing a third term. The matter has not ended there, Obasanjo having discovered the masquerade behind the dance, must ensure that the sacred cow veil hanging over Anenih is removed with a public rebuke.
This is the one way public confidence would be restored and people would believe his word that he has no third term ambition and has no interest to choose a successor apart from through constitutionally approved means.
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