At a time when it appeared as though the north would present the 2007 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, even in spite of the babel coming from some zones in the south, President Olusegun Obasanjo has joined the fray with his recent statement that apart from the South West geo-political zone, no other zone has an exclusive claim to the 2007 presidential ticket of his party. It was also a time when Anthony Anenih, PDP, Board of Trustees Chairman, declared that only Obasanjo can determine who would take over from him. This report will highlight the risk PDP and Obasanjo run, as well as the collateral damage Nigeria and Nigerians will suffer if the controversy being zoned into the issue of zoning within the PDP continues.
These two meetings reveal how President Olusegun Obasanjo’s mind works:
During the fast-breaking festival of Muslims last year, President Obasanjo played host to some important personalities at his Otta Farm residence. During discussions, the issue of who he would like to hand over to came up and his deputy, Atiku Abubakar was mentioned. Obasanjo was said to have flown into a rage. By the time he calmed down, he told his audience that he had nothing particularly personal against his deputy but that the type of things he was hearing were disconcerting and, therefore, would make him careful in supporting any particular politician as his successor. Obasanjo all but said his deputy could not be trusted - and this could be a carry over from the PDP convention held earlier last year. And what were the things he was hearing? It had to do with the alleged profligate disposition of those who are also alleged to have made good from their relationship with Abubakar.
This was last year.
Yet, sometime last month, it was the same Obasanjo who, in the company of some of his party big-wigs from the South West, at a meeting again in Otta, said some things which tended to contradict what he said earlier. The discussion centred around who he would hand over to in 2007. When Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida’s name was mentioned, there was a sudden contortion on his face - one which was a neither/nor response. When Abubakar’s name was mentioned, Obasanjo was reported to have said “he has come back to his senses”.
That politics in Nigeria is reduced to a personal issue should not be surprising to observers.
The normalcy of Nigeria’s abnormal political situation is captured by the fact that even a sitting president is not being categorical about the ascension of his deputy to the number one office.
But aside from all these, in 1999, there was an unwritten agreement that the president should come from the south.
Two terms and eight years later, where should the president come from?
Anthony Anenih, Chairman, PDP Board of Trustees, only succeeded in adding his own flavour to the on-going controversy when he was reported to have said that only President Obasanjo has the franchise to determine who would take over from him. That may very well be so.
But the preamble to the PDP Constitution states that the party shall recognise and uphold the principle of power shift and power rotation.
The preamble to the PDP Constitution states: “(iii). To restructure Nigeria in the spirit of true federalism in order to ensure a fair and equitable distribution of power, resources, wealth and opportunities to conform with the principles of Power-shift and power-sharing, rotation of key political offices and an equitable devolution of powers to the zones, states and local governments so as to create socio-political conditions conducive to national peace and unity.”
Article 2 states:
“Supremacy of the party constitution
“Subject to the provision of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, this constitution shall be supreme and if any other Law, Rules or Regulations of the Party is inconsistent with the provision of this constitution, the constitution shall prevail and that other Law, Rule or Regulation shall, to the extent of its inconsistency, be null and void and of no effect.”
Some cynical observers say the way Obasanjo has been conducting himself and the affairs of the PDP and even his style of governing the Nigerian state suggest that he is supreme to the party, its constitution and even the 1999 Constitution which is supposed to be inviolable but which he continues to violate, he could as well choose who his successor would be.
But politics is not about the wish of just one individual.
Chief Anenih knows too well that whatever President Obasanjo’s desires concerning his successor, he would still have to use foot soldiers to execute the order. Now, would President Obasanjo relocate to INEC headquarters in Abuja, which is a simple matter? Or would he be present at all the 36 state headquarters of INEC, or local government offices? Although because of the way elections are conducted and won in Nigeria, these posers may be irrelevant; but at the end of the day, people would still be used to carry out the order. However, in a polity which is still coming to terms with its own realities, the worst Nigeria needs today is for an upturn of the apple cart which seeks to upset the existing power rotation arrangement in PDP.
True, the PDP has not decided.
True, some loquacious politicians from the South East Zone who betrayed their fellow politician for personal gains have suddenly woken up to a new reality that Ndigbo is fit for the presidency. The South South, interestingly, seems to be positioning for the office of the vice president.
There are accompanying pieces supporting the case for Abubakar or Babangida, since it appears as though the contest has been reduced to the two individuals.
If elections in Nigeria would continue along the pattern of the April council elections, then in 2007, Nigerians should brace up for anything. Senator Rowland Owie told Vanguard last week that his fear for Nigeria is that with what happened at the council polls, elections in 2007 would be tragic.
The signs are ominous. Some have said the PDP may disintegrate. That may not happen because Nigerian politicians only gravitate to the centre where power resides. Some politicians may be forced out of the party but the party would remain.
