Babangida's army on the march as project 2007 remains slippery
By Akpo Esajere, Group Political Editor
SO far, everything that came the way of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (rtd), he has thrown at his rumoured ambition. You could call it mobilisation or roping in.
Certain elements are helping his cause. Key among these is the fact of his being a former Head of State (he preferred the title President). He had played in the highest echelon of the military wing of the political class. This group, whether retired or serving, commands most of the right strings. They have the penetrating wherewithal to dominate or influence the cause of events in the political terrain.
Then, there is his apparent fabulous wealth, a treasure throve or dumb truck of cash with which he could afford to do his brat stuff. Both in the Army and in office as Head of State, Babangida built enormous goodwill. He did this through what his acolytes call "he made many people" and "he stands by his friends" while his critics and opponents dismiss or deride it as "you chop I chop."
With a cunning savvy, a macho military aura and contacts all over the country, Babangida, at 63, can afford to rub vitality and stability into a campaign to be elected as President in 2007.
Lately, these elements have played out openly in the marriages that have taken place in his household. In the last 10 months, Babangida has had the distinct privilege of two of his children getting hooked up. First, it was Aisha his daughter who wedded Alhaji Basheer Garba, a cousin of the late dictator, General Sani Abacha at his Minna, Niger State home base in September last year.
Last week, his senior son, Mohammed, and Rahma, the daughter of an industrialist, Alhaji Muhammadu Indimi, married in Maiduguri.
Attendance at both marriages, which reputedly drew who is who in the country may be one of many things. It could be a measure of how deeply he is still regarded or the in-roads he has made afresh into the political terrain. It could also be a kind of camp acting on the part of politicians who are not sure which way things would go.
In Maiduguri, for example, it emerged that one of those things politicians are not sure of or uneasy about is what President Olusegun Obasanjo would do. Everybody was preoccupied with whether the President would support Babangida, or the Vice President Atiku Abubakar or Buba Marwa, or a dark horse, for that matter. Whether he will tell everybody aspiring to run for the presidency to go and run.
And Obasanjo is good at conducting the game of keeping people guessing. His wife, Stella, was at Aisha's marriage in Minna. She was not in Maiduguri. This probably does not mean any political harm to Babangida. But Obasanjo had said three weeks ago that the PDP had not decided on the zone that will produce the President in 2007 and that only the South-West from where he hails could not be expected to bid.
Politicians are not quite certain what the President means by this. Is he rejecting zoning Is he saying that the president can come from anywhere in the interest of merit Is he merely playing politics or acting cocky to confuse some politicians and give others goose pimples
The race for the 2007 Presidency in the PDP may be cut short by entrenched interests or hegemonic forces. Put succinctly, the choice of who succeeds Obasanjo may be taken by an inner caucus exactly as it was taken or imposed in the case of Obasanjo in 1999. According to this school of thought, Abubakar or Babangida is better placed to benefit from this situation. However, it could also work for Marwa or a dark horse where the two fall out of favour in the set up or any of them opts out to fight the set up on his own terms.
However, some believe that it is late in the day for a dark horse to appear on the scene and make the kind of impact needed for clinching the Presidency. As one source puts it, "this is a big and complex country, do you think it is easy for somebody to appear on the scene this late hour, make noise here and there and be rewarded with the Presidency It will not be that simple."
Still, how Obasanjo decides to deal with the question of his successor will matter in the calculations. Also very important is how each zone acts in relation to who gets the Presidency. In this respect, the South-West zone will be particularly relevant. Since the zone can no longer be expected to bid for the Presidency in 2007, it promises to be the pivot of negotiations.
The South-East is bidding for the Presidency in 2007. On this, leaders of the zone particularly Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the pan-Igbo socio-cultural group, are doing their best to be taken seriously. It ought to be assumed for now that, if they stuck to their guns and the zone is effectively mobilised for the project, then there will be fall-outs, an obvious one being support for a party that fielded an Igbo candidate.
The Igbo were not noticeable in Maiduguri. Apart from the Senate President, Chief Adolphus Wabara, no politician of note from the South-East could be readily seen in the crowd that graced the Maiduguri marriage. At some point, it was said that some of them planned to go for the reception in Minna. But apparently, the South-East may strive to be a difficult fishing ground for outsiders in 2007.
Some individuals and groups from the South-South went to Maiduguri. But the governors of the six states of the zone were closeted for a meeting at Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital. The South-South looks an open field for all aspirants, even as some of the leading lights from the zone appear to be on stand by, or more interested in scheming for the Vice Presidency.
Abubakar and Babangida are proving rather interesting to watch. Abubakar, accompanied by his wife, Titi, witnessed the marriage of Babangida's daughter, Aisha, in Minna. The Vice President was again in Maiduguri last week. But this, obviously, does not mean that it is going to be an easy fight between him and Babangida. It might indeed be a dogfight, a tricky brutish slug, particularly in the North.
In Maiduguri, it somehow emerged that Babangida had built up a formidable campaign outfit. In the aircraft that took persons attending the marriage from Lagos to Maiduguri, copies of a publication called IBB 007 trumpet were distributed to passengers. Devoted to the Babangida 2007 campaign, it presented him as the messiah that the country has been waiting for.
It was alleged that his posters were ordered out of the streets of the ancient town, in the build up to his arrival for his son's marriage. Babangida himself was said to have told his supporters "leave politics out, we are here for marriage." However, some vehicles bearing his campaign posters still made it into the streets for the occasion last Saturday.
He has built a strong army of campaigners who operate like storm troopers. They argue that Babangida and Abubakar are the most formidable contestants from the North. To some of them, any aspirant from the North outside of these two is either trying to get some national visibility for future use or waiting to benefit where these two were to fight themselves to a standstill.
Privately, however, they accept that there are certain "baggage," which could make the pursuit of the ambition of the two politicians to falter. In other words, there is still a distinct room for somebody else to take a chance.
Babangida is fighting against severe odds. This is not just about his eight years rule perceived as disastrous. There is this ill feelings engendered by a seeming helplessness of ordinary Nigerians concerning the re-circling of the privileged like him who would not let go. His camp argues that Nigeria is a sophisticated country and that the country needs someone "as tough, moneyed and experienced" like him to hold it together. Yet, these are the same people, who dragged the country to where it is. Which is why the road ahead may be rough. `
Still, how Obasanjo decides to deal with the question of his successor will matter in the calculations. Also very important is how each zone acts in relation to who gets the Presidency. In this respect, the South-West zone will be particularly relevant. Since the zone can no longer be expected to bid for the Presidency in 2007, it promises to be the pivot of negotiations.
