It's a tough question. Events in Anambra State, including half-baked truths about what took place prior to and on 10 July 2003, have not shed sufficient light to enable independent analysts to arrive at a fair judgment. In the muddied cesspool of Anambra State politics, you will find two camps, filled by sworn enemies, neither of which is willing to compromise nor shift ground. What both camps tell us is as gripping as what they don't tell us.
In Anambra State, Ngige is like a political orphan. In private and in public, federal authorities have consistently shunned him. The Presidency, in conspiracy with the police hierarchy, has stripped him of official police security, ensuring that Ngige would not enjoy the protection of police aides. His political party, the Peoples Democratic Party, regards Ngige as a loose cannon that should be handled with utmost care. The PDP hierarchy treats Ngige even worse " like a prodigal son. In the face of political adversity, Ngige struts about the state as if everything is normal in his kingdom. But everything is not and cannot be normal in Anambra State.
Ngige draws strength and political legitimacy from a majority of the people in the state who view him as a victim of dark and mischievous politics hatched in Abuja, in particular by the Presidency. Emboldened by the massive rural support which he enjoys, Ngige has consistently taunted his political enemies, including his political godfather and sponsor, Chris Uba. He has good reasons to thump his chest in defiance of his political enemies. In Anambra State, Ngige is a popular figure. Many people in the state, in particular people in rural communities, now refer to the governor as "action governor" or "performing governor". In the face of opposition from the federal government and Ngige's estranged sponsors, the governor has repaired a number of roads and completed some people-oriented projects.
In rural communities, a governor's popularity often rises as the governor embarks on programs that meet the needs of the people. There is no magic in this. Perform for the people and you become a hero. Lateef Jakande is a good example. There may be no comparison here but Jakande's widespread popularity as a former governor of Lagos State was bolstered by his ability to tackle projects that were previously perceived as mission impossible. He succeeded where his predecessors failed. Lagos has always been a difficult state to govern. In spite of this, Jakande proved that nothing appeals to local people more than concrete actions that people could identify with. He tarred roads, improved supply of water, provided free education and built other projects that impacted positively on the lives of the common people in Lagos. Ngige is following a similar track but his success has not yet reached the level attained by Jakande. But it remains to be seen whether Ngige's achievements in the state would win the favour of his enemies or antagonise them further.
Despite local support, Ngige remains a man hunted and haunted by visible and invisible forces. He has adopted eternal vigilance as his personal creed. Two weeks ago, in response to a question about the untiring efforts of his adversaries to remove him from the government house, Ngige told reporters in Awka, the state capital: "I do not lose any sleep; I sleep with my two eyes". That may well have been an exaggeration. The fact is that Ngige no longer sleeps with his two eyes shut. He dares not. Even though he could sense, all around him, the fawning adulations of loyal and disloyal servants, Ngige understands, in metaphorical Shakespearean language, that he has "murdered sleep" because of his refusal to keep to the spirit and letters of the damned deal he signed with his political godfathers at a local shrine in the dead of the night when the rest of the people of the state negotiated sleep with their creator.
Ever since the events of July 10 last year, Ngige has shown that, despite his diminutive frame, he is a fighter of repute. One year later, there is no doubt he still has some fight left in him. Fight or no fight, Ngige remains dogged by a number of unanswered questions. The major question that everyone in the country would like the governor to answer is: why did Ngige engage in a messy and sordid political deal just for him to attain the high office of state governor Shouldn't ambition be in accord with moral uprightness and openness Ngige doesn't like to address the first question but prefers to position himself as an honest man who fell out with his political sponsors because he did not allow them to defraud the state. That may well be true. But keep in mind that, at one time during the high point of the debate, Ngige admitted that he entered into the deal but not with genuine intentions. He said he knew he would pull out of the deal later but before he could do so the entire plot had blown up in the faces of the principal officers involved.
Following the unsuccessful plot to pluck him from power last July, Ngige has succeeded in depicting himself in the news media as a victim of an evil plot. That message seems to have won for him the sympathies of many people. It is easy to understand why. Democracy is on trial in the country. Many Nigerians, deprived of their fundamental human rights under various military regimes, would not be keen to see a quick return to dictatorship of any kind. Last week, on the eve of the first anniversary of the coup plot that saw Ngige incarcerated in a public toilet, he defied the PDP leadership who had advised the Anambra State government against celebrating political misfortune. The people and government of Anambra State have celebrated "Liberation Day". In my view, the "liberation" ceremony should not epitomize Ngige's escape from the jaws of political sharks in the state.
The people of Anambra State should celebrate "Liberation Day" as the day the state escaped the imposition of dictatorship of another kind. Although the Liberation Day may not have improved the standard of living of the people of Anambra State, there is an underlying message in the ceremony: plots hatched in Abuja cannot be transplanted easily into another state without the endorsement of the people. As Lagos lawyer Festus Keyamo argued during last weekend's anniversary in Awka, "in matters of democracy, it is the people and the people alone that matter".
The anniversary has ended but Ngige is unsure how long he would have to fight local and federal forces in Anambra State to establish his political legitimacy once and for all. He does not know also whether or not he would emerge victorious at the end of the fight, and indeed whether or not the PDP would put him up for governorship re-election in 2007, that is, if he wants to contest the election. If history is anything to draw on, Ngige might like to cut short his ambition for now, remembering how the PDP dumped his predecessor, Mbadinuju. In Anambra State or indeed any other state, political experience shows that a popular governor seeking re-election without the backing of a credible political party is like a beautiful single woman who trumpets her beauty but remains unmarried. Ngige may again want to take advice from his predecessor " Mbadinuju " before his enemies tag him as the dancer of political misfortune.
