Daily Independent Online.
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Wednesday, July 21, 2004.
Obasanjo and his economic recovery strategy
By Isioma Joseph Madike
A vigorous chorus of disenchantment has continued
to rise against the Obasanjo Administration after about five years in power.
From the impossible-to-satisfy pressure groups like the Arewa Consultative
Forum (ACF) to editorials in sober and respected journals, the depressingly
familiar litany of failure is being paraded. The case is correctly made that
the objective conditions of the average Nigerian citizen have not improved at
all, rather the opposite. Power supply is still struggling out of coma. The
currency has lost all that remained of its value. Crime is a daily worry and
incidents of murder race for the skies. Life remains a mind - numbering
struggle for the preponderant majority of our compatriots nationwide. Not even
the President's many admirers are pretending that he has even remotely begun to
affect the lives of the citizens of Nigeria for the better.
What makes this paucity of results on the ground so
striking is how ill it sits with the messianic rhetoric of the President. And,
it began very early. When Obasanjo won the first presidential election in 1999,
CNN interviewed him. He uttered an astonishing series of affirmations beginning
with the words "from this day forward…..": “From this day forward poverty will
be banished in Nigeria. From this day forward corruption is outdated in
Nigeria....” He went on and on in that vein and this was before he was
sworn in. It is clear now that he
was being supremely unwise. Yet, he has not changed. Obasanjo takes his ability
for granted and he assumes we all do. However, as they say, the proof of the
proverbial pudding is in the eating. Assumed abilities count for nothing in the
face of evident ineffectualness. Obasanjo promised clean and effective
governance. He has not delivered yet. If he does not do so in the near future
his reputation if any, will remain in tatters, no matter what he did in a
fabled past.
The commentaries and interviews one read on this
subject in recent times usually, if they are minded to be fair, mention the
extenuating circumstances. Three of these are prominent. The first is that
after years of misrule by soldiers, it was bound to take a while to sort things
out. We can all concede to this without much ado. The second is the rash of
militant ethnic and religious conflicts that have wasted the energies and time
of top government officials. The third is the fact that the ruling party, the
PDP, is a confused mess, not an effective and focused governing coalition.
Mallam Adamu Ciroma said in an interview after the general elections in 1999,
that, " we are going to make life very difficult for our opponents because
we intend to govern responsibly". Well, so far so terrible. The PDP has
not governed either well or responsibly. We all know the facts. Some promises that never saw the light
of the day: poverty alleviation, anti-corruption crusade, and the problem of
fuel shortage etc.
The truth is, a president might have a plan, but
whether or not that plan becomes translated into results on the ground would
depend on two crucial ingredients. The first ingredient is the capacity to get
the National Assembly and the ruling party as a whole to commit seriously to a
disciplined effort on behalf of the country. The second crucial ingredient is
to have the machinery of government sufficiently primed and energized to
execute economic recovery throughout the length and breadth of Nigeria, now and
over decades. Without these two curable ingredients, failure is a near
certainty no mater who the president is.
Moreover, all those who are minded to be fair to our
president always say that he means well and one would probably say the same
thing if pressed. Nevertheless, while meaning well is a big thing, it is
obviously not enough. At the very least a critical mind must exist within the
leadership of Nigeria committed to good governance and economic transformation.
Do we have that in Nigeria today? Certainly not, one would say. Even after all
that we have been through as a people, all the focus is on how to steal the proceeds
of oil revenues, and this is at all levels. It is utterly depressing. The only reforms that will happen are
those that our creditors force through, hence the halting privatization
programme and the introduction of some other phoney measures.
The state of the civil service, like the state of the
police force, we all know about. These are devastated machines. They are not
going to be able to deliver results until rebuilt. The question is: have we
even started the serious process of rebuilding these fundamental tools? The
evidence on the ground does not inspire confidence. We still have a long way to
go.
Do 1 counsel despair in the face of these marmot problems
the country is experiencing. The answer is no, of course. One can always said
about Nigeria that the only thing it is safe to be is a tough optimist. You
have to face the unpleasant facts of our situation, and accept the time all
this is likely to take to sort out. However, it can someday, be sorted out,
perhaps towards the end of the lives of people in this generation.
In spite of his messianic rhetoric, it appears
president Obasanjo may not be able to transform Nigeria before he vacates ASO
Rock. In any case, if he can begin the process of setting it along its proper
pathways that would be a major achievement and success enough. We can only hope
that he finds a way to begin.
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Madike writes from Ogba - Lagos.
