2007 And The Resort To Regional Politics
By ALABI WILLIAMS
The Race for 2007 is the most talked about political topic of the moment. It does not matter that two clear years are still ahead. That goes to show the amount of anxiety this subject generates. It also shows exactly what the priorities are for politicians. The race by the different interests and people of Nigeria to win the seat inside Aso Rock for keeps tells all the story about Nigeria's kind of federalism. Right now, the politicians are not talking about funding the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the body that will conduct the 2007 general elections. With two clear years, no one is talking about updating the voters' register, or sourcing for electoral materials. When the time comes, Nigeria will take care of all that in the usual manner-stamped.
The geo-political meetings are going on now. Every zone is working tirelessly to put its house in order, ahead of party primaries, socio-political and cultural organisations are also meeting to prevail on politicians within their domains to be reasonable. The governors are also meeting in groups to harmonise interests towards 2007.
Last week, the Northern Governors Forum (NGF) again met in Kaduna. It was an emergency meeting, not to address issues of development but to discuss 2007. At the end of that meeting, a declaration was read by Governor Haruna Goje of Gombe State on behalf of the Forum to the effect that they need to work harder to recover the Presidency. They also resolved to hold a Northern Unity Conference aimed at bringing together the region's diverse interests, irrespective of their religious and ethnic affinities to form a formidable force in preparing for the 2007 presidential election. The NGF has suddenly realised that there are diverse interests in the north. When Plateau was burning, they did not summon an emergency conference.
The northern Governors have renewed their energies of recent on the 2007 issue. Governor Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna State began the clarion call for power to shift to the north. Gradually, the Governors' Forum has acquired a measure of relevance and weight on this matter. So far, there also appears to be a unanimity of purpose over the 2007 project as no dissenting voice has been heard. That is one advantage which the north has enjoyed over the years. This renewed interest over 2007 is a curious one, as it seems to suggest that the political clan in the north is more interested in gaining access to choice political offices. At a time politicians in other geo-political zones are calling for a National Conference to debate Nigeria's future, the NGF is planning a Northern Unity Conference. For most northern Governors, a national conference is not a political issue for which an emergency meeting can be summoned. They are more interested in their northern agenda.
The south-south Governors also met recently in Akwa Ibom State, where host Obong Victor Attah demanded for unity among the team. That meeting was called to address six key issues of; replacement for Dikibo, 13 per cent derivation and resources control, revenue allocation formula, electoral act, peace in the Niger Delta and the political future of the zone.
Attah reminded the forum of the need to work together as a team. He cited the onshore/offshore dichotomy case where there was absence of harmony among the governors in the manner individuals wanted to claim credit for the victory.
Finding a replacement for slain south-south leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Aminasoari Dikibo was a difficult task for the group of six states. And that was traceable to vested interests of people who want to have control over party machinery, a situation which can be manipulated in future to determine who gains access into what political office during party primaries. Not even the presence of Chief Tony Anenih, PDP Chieftain and Interim chairman of the party's Board of Trustees could help resolve that issue. Why Because he is an interested party. Anenih is said to prefer a replacement from Rivers State while majority of the Governors and other stake-holders preferred that a replacement for Dikibo be sourced from outside Rivers. Among the Governors, some are nursing the ambition to be picked for vice presidency in 2007. With such ambition, team spirit is usually difficult to build.
Governors of the south-west, apart from Bola Tinubu of Lagos State are still busy learning the ropes and stabilising themselves in office. They are yet to evolve a regional forum to help form consensus opinion on national issues. The Peoples Democratic party is presently trying to resolve party squabbles in Lagos, Osun and Oyo States with a view to strengthening the party in the south-west. So, apart from this, south-west governors have no visible project yet for 2007. They will fall in line when the baton is officially handed out to a would-be successor for Aso Rock. The Alliance for Demoracy (AD) is about putting its house in order. Also the Afenifere group is waking up to reorganise itself in order to remain active towards 2007. However, the AD cannot go beyond brokering an alliance if it wants to play politics in 2007. It did in 1999, and will have no choice but to again shop for friends outside the zone.
The south east Governors have been meeting since 1999. They have collectively shown their loyalty to the PDP in both the1999 and 2003 elections. On that note, there is consensus among the Governors. On the south east project 2007, they haven't been able to form consensus. They were all there in 1999 when Dr. Alex Ekwueme was defeated at the Jos primaries. In 2003, they were there again at the Eagle Square. Between 1999 and 2003, there was a measure of concern by the Governors to enhance the political fortune of Ndigbo. Abia Governor, Orji Kalu was the champion of that campaign and he waxed loud and strong. All through, most people got carried away about the Abia governor's commitment to the Igbo project. He appeared altruistic and all other Igbo presidency campaigners lined up behind him. Other south-east Governors, had to apply tact, to tag along so as not to be nicknamed anti-Igbo even when they knew it was all hoax. Right now, the tune has changed. It is now clear that some Governors in the south east have seen the handwriting on the wall; that the north is not joking at all. Instead of losing out completely, they are individually positioning themselves for the usual second fiddle.
Governor Sam Egwu of Ebonyi State, usually calm and clear headed is now bothered about the waning confidence of some Igbo actors who only yesterday knew no other song other than the Igbo presidency. Having used the clamour to gain front seat, such characters are now scheming for the vice presidency come 2007. Egwu said, "It is regrettable that some Igbo leaders have tended to play into the hands of opponents of Igbo presidency project through unguarded comments about zoning, over alleged lack of preparedness or non-availability of presidential materials among the Igbos." That is the painful realisation. That when the chips are down , that old republican attitude will rear its ugly head to dismantle the fragile Igbo unity.
In his own case, Governor Kalu is no longer sure of himself on the Igbo presidency. After all the noise of five years, he has now realised that it is time for re-examination. He said recently, "I believe in the Nigerian president of Igbo extraction project. It is a genuine, realisable project, but we must first of all re-examine ourselves to know if we can work together and speak with one voice." That seals it. The man is no longer sure of the collective desire of the Igbos for the Presidency.
The other geo-political zones north-central, north-west and north-east are already subsumed within the northern agenda. The north central may not find it difficult to reconcile itself since it is only Niger State that has shown visible interest in the 2007 Presidency, Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Plateau have not indicated interest. It should be quite easy for these states to go to the primaries with one voice.
The north-west is the political headquarters of the north. It is the zone that has been most favoured in terms of political leadership in the entire region. Late Sir Ahmadu Bello's political legacies are well respect in the entire north, and the zeal to continue that tradition is always there. But in 2007, the north-east is coming on strong. Vice president Atiku Abubakar is from this zone and after eight years of serving in that capacity, it will be difficult to persuade him against going for the Presidency. However, the northern governors will play a major role in reconciling the entire north. They will play high -stake politics to ensure that consensus is achieved.
The major political parties will also play vital role in deciding where power shifts to in 2007. The PDP will be a stormy house when the time comes for its primaries. That is when the |Governors will deploy their energies and resources, to compel their delegates to conform. The Governors will be very useful, and that is why the Northern Governor's Forum will be very strategic. Whoever, secures the confidence of the Governors will go along way.
Regional groups such as the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Ohanaeze, the Afenifere and other such groups will as usual continue with their campaigns and strategies to swing the political mood in their favour. But not much can be achieved through such campaigns. It is the political parties that will decide whether democracy continues or not. Regional clamours can, however, do a lot of damage to the Nigerian project. Politicians are more concerned about their access to the monumental power and resources of the Federal government. They are not bothered about the arms build-up in the Niger Delta, which is the major source of Nigeria's earnings. Politicians' attitude says a lot about the hypocrisy in the federal system of government, a situation where people think and act regionally but only support federalism in so far as it guarantees their monthly allocations. The northern Governors will not summon an emergency meeting over the situation in the Niger Delta. Neither will the south-west and south-east Governors bother themselves with the Niger Delta. Every zone's concern is how to access Aso Rock to gain control of the milk and honey therein. This is a different kind of federalism and it aims at tearing Nigeria apart.
