The scramble for 2007
By Austen Oghuma
Sometimes analysing events in Nigeria brings to mind an active tectonic plate on the verge of a violent rise. Every action and statement by some officials either in their official capacity or in their foxholes create the impression that the end is near. A typical Nigerian is a little independent lithosphere with enough brittle strength and behaviour to cause havoc. They prey on fear factors. It is in this light I see statements often credited to jaded politicians, ex-this, ex-that, and ex-everything, that if the North does not produce the next president, Nigeria would drop out of the planet.
Sunday Awoniyi, chairman of Arewa Consultative Forum, said it is inconceivable for the next Nigerian president not to be a northerner. Several other officials including the 19 governors from the region are hyperventilating, insisting that the north is still the vaunted base of Nigerian leadership. They ignore the dominance the North has maintained in mis-managing the affairs of the country since independence and the misery that came along with it. You only need to compare the level of poverty in Nigeria at the time of independence to what it was in 1999 when Olusegun Obasanjo took over. For relevance and to be taken seriously, the ACF needs to objectify its national goal to include building a society where daily interactions of Nigerians mixing together in a peaceful family environment prevail. But statements like these that the North would not be short-changed show banality of ideas and lack of leadership. Knowing the limit of our powers and recognising the potential ripple effect some unguarded statements can cause are attributes of good leadership.
Those who fail to learn from history would certainly repeat it. Alhaji Shehu Malami once spoke in a similar bellicose tone in the early 90s at a press conference in Zaria in which he emphatically stated that it was not possible for the South to produce a president in Nigeria. "If it is democracy they are talking about, we have more population," as if every Northerner is mechanically programmed to vote for such a candidate. Chief MKO Abiola's performance in June 12, 1993 presidential elections debunked Malami's prognosis. In spite of their resistance and stoic attempt to scuttle it, a southerner now presides over the affairs of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Malami now says he is not a politician. With time Awoniyi may very well recant.
Ordinarily Awoniyi's declaration may not be too upsetting; but its tone and tenor gnaw at my base of patriotism. It could even be more acceptable if it is based on principles, and accompanied with an actionable plan to elevate the region from peasantry. There are far too many beggars on the streets of Kano metropolis alone than there are in the entire South. Nearly all the beggars in the South are shipped human cargoes from the North. Addressing these issues with the sole purpose of finding a permanent solution should be a major focus of northern leaders. Are these beggars, the lame, the blind and the cripple, those with amputated limbs as punishment under sharia, not part of ACF and northern governors' constituencies Why pander to Northern elites alone and abandon those who are more in need of a patriarch The elite, which consists mainly those who corrupted the system can fend for themselves with little paternalism from ACF. These same elites preach fatalism to their peasants.
Would it make members of this socio-cultural leadership less aristocratic oligarchy if they openly identify with the poor and work in tandem with the government to end their afflictions, eradicate their hunger and starvation, pervasive illiteracy and diseases like polio Such a venture would have greater worldwide appeal. With this, hardwork and high self esteem would replace the begging culture in the region.
The most unfathomable of their campaign is the encouragement they seem to provide former president Ibrahim Babaginda who continues to circle his wagon on Aso Rock. They ignore the fact that Nigeria is not a personal estate but a country of about 120 million people. If Babaginda was an unknown entity from planet Zuko, he could perhaps spark some alluring expectations, that there is a distant possibility that he might possess an unparellel wisdom. But we know him. He is not from Zuko but Minna, where he lives in opulence on a hilltop mansion. He is a former president who ruled Nigeria for eight years during which "he democratised corruption and corrupted democracy," according to Ike Okonta. He possesses neither wisdom nor vision on state matters. We were once charmed by his devious innocence, which he likes to project. But we now recoil from the reality of his actions and a possibility of an instant replay frightens but energises the base of opposition. We know his strength, we know his pressure points. We will put our fingers on them.
At best a Babaginda presidency would consist of jaded political retrofits, fished out from the recycled bin. This group has oiled its strategies and ready to market a prime candidate ignoring the fact that the message and its intended target have folded together like advertisements, facing one another in a glossy magazine, but smeared with distrust. Another group would consist of some weeping generals who shed tears of endearment at the feet of Abacha and his chief security officer, Al Mustapha. I would not buy a used car from any of these people.
My advice to the Awoniyis and those who continue to live in the past, those with obsessive fixation by clutching tightly to their old stocks, is trade them for issues that are priceless. The train of revolution to change the face of Nigeria left the station long ago no matter how slowly it is moving. It can never be business as usual. The gin is out of the bottle. If IBB and his band are responding to a compulsive call to serve the public, they should join forces with the Jimmy Carter Foundation to eradicate guinea worm epidemic in Babangida's backyard. Remember that Carter was president for only four years in the United States, while IBB ruled Nigeria for eight and now he wants more. It is a shame.
Lastly, it is a lot easier today to mobilise a worldwide opposition to an identified public enemy than it was in 1993 in Nigeria. The GSM and the internet have opened the world to a rush of initiates. A lot more people now clutch their cell phones and take delight in sending or receiving text messages. Its effectiveness could be tested in 2007 if IBB runs.
*Oghuma, a journalist, lives in Los Angeles, California.
