PDP, contending with the contradictions of zoning formula
From John-Abba Ogbodo, Abuja
I N 1998, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) must have been convinced that it had found the panacea to the issue of power sharing in the country. As the party begins to set its sight on 2007, it appears that this area will pose problems for the party.
Its formula was to rotate power at the centre between the North and South and end the dominance of the North. However, when the South West took the first slot in 1998, it was largely seen as a design to pacify the zone after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won by the late Chief Moshood Abiola. From the beginning, there were signs that the arrangement would suffer some inherent contradictions.
One of those initial problems was the assumption by the PDP that it would always win the presidency. Another issue was the feasibility of rotating power among the six geo-political zones - North East, North West, North Central, South East, South West and South-South. So, even with the North and South political divide, the problem of power sharing and rotation was just scratched on the surface. It has also been argued that it was not likely that the zoning formula would continue after the South West had exhausted its slot, despite the unwritten agreement that the pendulum would swing up North.
Despite the compelling advantage that June 12 as a factor conferred the South West, there was a ploy to drag the zone out of its provincial concept of politics onto mainstream politics.
The National Chairman of the party, Chief Audu Ogbeh, alluded to this during the campaign for President Olusegun Obasanjo's re-election. Moreover, the desperation with which the PDP broke down the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 2003 polls confirmed it. Ogbeh still beats his chest that for the first time in the political history of Nigeria, the South West had been pulled into the mainstream of Nigerian politics, and the PDP did it.
It was this political carrot called zoning that perhaps lured the President into politics after his famous post-prison statement, "how many presidents do you people want to make out of me," and that he was no longer eyeing Aso Rock.
One problem with the zoning formula, which was taken for granted, was the timeframe. The Guardian learnt that the fluidity of the situation had almost created a problem during the tail-end of Obasanjo's first term. Some party members had argued that it was time for the power to shift, at least to another zone in the South. The party had to convene a meeting of an enlarged caucus in Aso Rock. The late Chief Aminasoari Dikibo, who was then the party's National Vice Chairman of (South South), moved a motion that the president go for a second term. A member of the member of the board of trustees (BOT), Alhaji Lawal Kaita, seconded the motion.
Obasanjo's second term standardised the two-term time-frame, which would now be incontestable for every zone going for the presidency on the PDP platform. If the president had settled for one term, then it would have been one term for each zone. After 2007, it would take the South West 40 years to produce a president again with the PDP. Sceptics are wondering that with the nature of the country's politics, where things are not quite certain, that the idea of zoning would not stand unless it is enshrined in the constitution. For example, one question is what would happen if the PDP loses the South West to the AD and the party finds itself in a position to produce an acceptable president
Again, how the party resolves the debate over whether the slot was zoned to the North or whether Obasanjo who is the only person to say who succeeds him, will determine a lot ahead of 2007.
It was under such circumstances that erstwhile national chairman of PDP, Chief Barnabas Gemade, under whose tenure the arrangement was sealed, decided to throw spanner into the works by indicating his intention to join the race for the presidency. The failure of the party to remind him that the zonal arrangement still conceded the presidency to the South was also another blow on the internal arrangement. It was argued that zoning was not recognised by the party's constitution, but a mere gentleman's agreement. Gemade was not alone in questioning the zoning formula. Like Gemade, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, former governor of Kano State and Minister of Communication was cleared by the party to contest the presidential primaries.
When both of them lost to Obasanjo, Gemade described the zoning formula as "a cruel arrangement," which led to his defeat.
It is therefore, under this context that Obasanjo's comments that only the South West can be ruled out of the 2007 presidential race is situated. If Gemade and Rimi, who were aware of the zoning arrangement, yet went into the presidential race, with the excuse that it was not recognised by the constitution, then it should be an all comers' game in 2007.
There already exists a development in the party, which negates the spirit of zoning. The chairmanship of the board of trustees of the party, which by the zoning formula ought to be in the South East, is now occupied by Chief Tony Anenih, from the South South. Second Republic Vice President, Dr. Alex Ekwueme held that position until he contested against Obasanjo in 2003 and relinquished the position. Ekwueme should have been succeeded by another person from the South East, according to the party's zoning arrangement. However, the position was first offered to the pioneer chairman of the party, Chief Solomon Lar (North Central) and now Anenih.
Recently, Anenih said that only Obasanjo would pick his successor and that the party would not have a direct input on his successor. The question is, if the president has said that apart from the South West, all other zones are eligible and Anenih, the "leader," said that the president not the party will decide, it might mean that things are not settled.
Anenih is known to make statements with a high degree of accuracy. Towards 2003, before the president said anything about his second term bid, Anenih had said that there was no vacancy in Aso Rock. That statement set the stage for Obasanjo's re-election campaign. In 2003 again, Anenih announced that the PDP would return all its governors in 2003. Only Anambra State former Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju was not returned.
In the north, the issue is raising the political temperature, with politicians like, Alhaji Iro Dan Musa, member BOT saying that the 1998 unwritten accord must be adhered to without conditions.
Governor of Kaduna State, Ahmed Makarfi has consistently maintained that it is the turn of the north to produce the president in 2007. Rimi also has said that the rotation formula must be adhered to for the sake of equity.
Ahead of 2007, the national convention of the party scheduled for October 2005 will kick-start the process of the implosion. It is likely that since decisions will be taken on Ogbeh's fortunes at the convention, he may not want to stir the hornet's nest. It is speculated that already some members of the party are compiling reports to be used against some members of the party leadership. For instance, after the death of Dikibo, the statement by Ogbeh that it was too hasty to conclude on the probable cause of death was said to have made some people uneasy. In the meantime, the fear of the 2005 convention is reining in some topnotcher of the party, from making unguarded statements on any aspect of the zoning formula.
No matter how the party decides to look at it, and besides the position of the presidency or party members on the zoning issue, the issue will decide the fate of the party in 2007.
