2007 is still three years away, but nationwide, the subtle moves for top political positions have begun, fueling speculations and permutations on who will be in the race and in some cases, forecasts or predictions on who the winners will be as some of the present occupants bow out.
Also nationwide, the new song is power shift from one zone to the other.
The case is not different in Edo State as different names have been thrown up as those who are gearing up to contest the governorship race and take over from the incumbent two-time governor, Lucky Igbinedion in 2007.
Also, the song in the state is that of power shift from the South (Bini) to the North (Owan, Etsako, Akoko Edo, all together called Afemai) but the people in the Central parts of the state (Esan) are nonetheless waiting in the wings to upstage both the South and the North if given the opportunity.
Agitation by the North
The agitations by people in the Northern zone of the state (Afemai) for power in 2007 is predicated on the fact that the Northern parts of the state have never held power either when the state was known as Bendel State or now Edo State. Its argument is that a wind of change must blow in the state and the agreement on power shift at the centre, in terms of the presidency, be replicated in the state and power zoned to it. The zone argued that the South has held power five times: Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, one term and Dr. Samuel Osaigbovo Ogbemudia, two terms and Dr. Lucky Igbinedion, two terms all totaling five terms and that the Central Zone has had a taste of the sweet apple of power through Professor Ambrose Alli in 1979.
While it is believed that the Bini, Edo South, may be favourably disposed to the Edo North dream, its belief that if left to square up with the Central, the North will come out bruised has made the Bini to decide to join the fray, not as onlookers, but as contestants in the race. While there is no doubt that Edo North has credible people who could brave the odds and come out to contest, (nobody has really owned up to his ambition yet) in Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, Chief Mike Oghiadomhe and Senator Victor Oyofo, its paucity in the area of political leaders in the mould of Chief Samuel Ogbemudia and Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, both in Edo South and Chief Tom Ikimi, and Chief Tony Anenih in Edo Central and the perceived problem candidates of the zone may have in generating the funds required for such project may be the biggest clogs in the wheels of achieving its ambition.
Moreover, while the people in Edo South are generally perceived to be one people, Bini, and the people in Edo Central are believed to be one, Esan; the people in Edo North are different peoples: Owan, Etsako and Akoko Edo. So while the zone battles to wrest power from the other zones, there will be inner battles in Edo North among its various peoples.
There is no doubt that if Edo South eventually decides to join the fray, as there are indications that it eventually will, it will most likely get its candidate back in power in 2007 since it has a superior population ratio of 58% against 25% for Edo North and 17% for Edo Central and the South has seven local governments out of eighteen in the state.
Likely candidates
The Peoples Democratic Party is the party on ground in Edo State. Of course, the All Nigeria Peoples Party and the Alliance for Democracy are the strongest opposition parties, but political analysts in the state believe that the most credible candidates who can win votes are in the PDP and that it would be difficult to upstage a PDP candidate in 2007 especially after the incumbent, Governor Lucky Igbinedion has performed creditably in turning the fortunes of the state around.
Analysts have narrowed the likely contenders for the 2007 guber ticket of the PDP in Edo State to six: three from the North, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, Senator Victor Oyofo and Chief Mike Oghiadomhe; one from the South, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu and two from the Central, Chief Odion Ugbesia and Mr. Eugene Anenih.
Prof. Julius Ihonvbere
Julius Ihonvbere, a Professor of Political Science is Obasanjo’s Special Adviser on Policy and Strategy. A former human rights activist, Prof. Ihonvbere is from the Owan-speaking areas of Edo North. Said to be very close to President Olusegun Obasanjo, he is believed to have the President’s nod ahead of others in the state. However, nobody knows if he can muster the needed finances to execute the guber project and the fact that Edo North lacks a known political leader in the moulds of Anenih, Esama Igbinedion and others. This has ben seen as a disadvantage to aspirants from the zone. Despite the fact that he is touted to be the president’s man, analysts believe the president himself would be too busy with the machinations at the central to have a look-in at what is happening in the states.
Chief Mike Oghiadomhe
Chief Mike Oghiadomhe is presently the Deputy Governor of the state. A position which fell on his laps after negotiation within the state PDP that the Deputy Governor’s position be zoned to the North following the defeat of Azeez Garba, from the North, at the party’s primaries in 1999.
Oghiadomhe, an Afemai, has served creditably as Deputy Governor since 1999. He has been loyal to Governor Igbinedion and expects to step into the governor’s shoes come 2007. This would have perhaps been the case if there were no other credible candidates from his zone and if other zones are not interested in the race.
Be that as it may, if Oghiadomhe comes out for the race, the goodwill of the governor will rub off on him and he will definitely be a strong candidate for the ticket.
Senator Victor Oyofo
Senator Victor Oyofo is another likely candidate from the Northern Zone. An Afemai, Senator Oyofo is the Senate Chief Whip and is highly respected. A grassroots man, Senator Oyofo has been in the Senate since 1999, where he has learnt the ropes of high-wire politicking. There is no doubt that this Senator can muster the finances required to execute the project, but a factor which will work against him might be his age. He is perhaps the oldest of all the candidates. The grassroots support he has will come to play if he wins the PDP’s ticket, however, it is left to be seen how he would clinch it.
Osagie Ize-Iyamu
A Pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, pastoring one of the largest branches anywhere in Nigeria, Osagie Ize-Iyamu is also a staunch loyalist of Governor Igbinedion having worked with him first as his Personal Assistant when Igbinedion was the chairman of Oredo Local Government, then as the Chief of Staff in Edo State from 1999 and now as Secretary to the State Government.
Pastor Ize-Iyamu is the only person from Edo South whom analysts believe could clinch the ticket if he yields to current pressures to declare for the guber race.
In fact an expert on Edo politics and publisher of the Midwest Times, Mr. Orobosa Omo-Ojo said “Ize-Iyamu’s strength is predominantly based on his broad-based support. The professional group both home and abroad, politicians and political interest groups across the political spectrum see him as a reliable and hardworking politician who has demonstrated large appetite for service. Apart from this, he has succeeded in exhibiting a rare trait of managerial skills by his ability to combine the work of God as a minister, pastoring the biggest branch of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in Edo State.
“Osagie Ize-Iyamu, by my estimation and to a large extent, the opinion of serious stakeholders is that he can be trusted and he is perhaps the best material around right now. Placed on a balance of scale, he should be a political asset to any serious party.”
While the North lacks political leaders whom its candidates could run to, Pastor Ize-Iyamu and the South is blessed with Chief Osawaru Igbinedion, Chief Samuel Ogbemudia and even the incumbent Governor who is now a political leader in his own rights. If all these leaders rally round their own, from Bini, then other zones may as well start the battle for other positions.
Chief Odion Ugbesia
Chief Odion Ugbesia is the Minister of Solid Minerals and is one of the two people from Edo Central in whose direction people point when matters of the governorship race is mentioned.
As a Minister, Ugbesia has the ears of the President, even more than any other likely contestant and rumours abound that he may be getting prepared to take a shot at the party’s ticket when the ban on active campaigns is lifted.
Ugbesia comes from the same zone with Chief Anenih and Ikimi, very active, influential and powerful political godfathers who can make things happen.
However, the cold relationship between the two godfathers may not be in Ugbesia’s interest because if he aligns with one of them, the other will most likely pull out of his project. Moreover, Chief Anenih, who could have swung the pendulum in Ugbesia’s direction is said to be nursing the ambition of installing a son from his loins as the Governor in the state in 2007. If this is true, then Ugbesia would be left with no other option but to align with Ikimi and others to make his pet dream see the light of day.
Eugene Anenih
Not much is known of this young man except that he is the son of Chief Tony Anenih and that alone is enough credentials, because his father, known as Mr. Fix It or The Leader in the PDP is reputed to have the clout within the party to swing almost anything. However, that reputation is what may stand in the Eugene’s way as the role played by the elder Anenih in the replacement of Chief A.K. Dikibo still leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of not only Edo leaders, but also across other states of the South-South.
Besides that, the power show between the elder Anenih and another political leader in Esan land, Chief Tom Ikimi over the ‘capture’ of Ikimi’s base by Anenih in the last local government election is seen to be a factor that may work against Eugene’s ambition to pick the PDP ticket in 2007. Analysts believe that though Eugene himself does not have any problem on his own, it would be the case of visiting the father’s sins on the son.
There is however no doubt that the incumbent Governor Igbinedion will not want to be succeeded by an unfriendly government, so, one of two of his most trusted loyalists, Chief Mike Oghiadomhe, the present Deputy Governor and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the present SSG is most likely to pick the party’s ticket with Pastor Ize-Iyamu having a slight edge because of the zone he comes from and the plethora of leaders from his zone who will most likely stand by him.
Whatever happens and whoever picks the party’s ticket, it is believed, would most likely be the next governor in the state unless the other parties put their acts together and present a candidate able to beat the PDP’s candidate at the polls.
