2007: Zoning PDP to Controversy
�We have not, as a party, zoned 2007 to any zone or state to the best of my
knowledge. Definitely, it will not be to the Southwest. When the time comes, the
PDP will put its heads together and decide where the next President will come
from�.
With this remark, President Olusegun Obasanjo, again brought the issue of which
zone produces the next president to the front burner of national discourse. Though
the controversy over powershift and power rotation had been raging for sometime,
the President�s declaration on Sunday has brought a new twist to the whole issue.
This remark, analysts posit, will shape the 2007 presidential race.
... In the Beginning
Although the clamour over which of the six geo-political zones in the country produces
the next president in 2007 is gradually peaking. The struggle is a continuation of what
actually started in 1999 leading to the emergence of President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Until 1999, except for Obasanjo�s brief stint as military head of state from 1976 to 1979,
which incidentally was by default following the assassination of General Murtala
Mohammed, the zone that produced those in power in the period leading up to 1976 was
the North.
The nearest attempt by a Southerner to taste power came in 1993, when late Chief
Moshood Abiola, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate was believed
to have won the June 12 elections of that year. But the then Presiden, General Ibrahim
Babangida annulled the election.
It was therefore under these two prevailing political environment that Obasanjo emerged.
His emergence was believed to have been aimed at addressing two factors: that power
finally shifted to the South after the North had held on to power since independence in
1960; and also to assuage the South-west for the loss it suffered over the annulment of
June 12 believed to have been won by one of their own, late Abiola.
But Obasanjo was barely two years on the saddle when agitation for a president of Igbo
extraction started in the South-east zone. Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia State was the
first to kick start the campaign. Even though the campaign was described by former
Ministr of Transport, Chief Ojo Madueke as idiotic, Kalu argued that it was the only
solution that would give Igbo a true sense of belonging in the polity.
At the height of the campaign, there were unconfirmed statements alluding to an
unwritten agreement between Obasanjo and some major stakeholders in the zone
including Chief J S P Nwokolo, Obasanjo�s once bosom friend and Sir Emeka Offor, a
financier of the PDP, who steered Obasanjo�s declaration for presidency to Enugu in
1998, that the zone would produce the next president after Obasanjo.
Up till March, 2003 when prominent Nigerians, including all the then 19 PDP governors
and two All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP)governors led by Chief Tony Anenih
converged on Ota farm to persuade Obasanjo to run for a second term, the agitation was
still high and was only doused in August, when Obasanjo, in a well publicised event
tagged �Obasanjo Speaks� finally laid to rest speculations about his second term bid by
declaring to seek re-election.
Divergent Views on Zoning
With about three years to go, the political momentum over which zone produces the next
president is already building up. In the South-east, the conference of governors from the
zone recently in Owerri, the Imo State capital, emerged from its monthly meeting to
declare that it is the turn of the zone to produce the next president.
The next day, Governor Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna State responded that the North would
not compromise the 2007 presidency to any zone. According to him, �all issues of power
at the national level are an issue of North and South. If the party is to change that, it will
have to sit and consider factors. But it is the turn of the North. Because it is logical that
after two terms of eight years, power should shift to the North.�
Shortly after, Governor Achike Udenwa of Imo State, the current chairman of the
conference of South-east governor replied Makarfi saying �Makarfi is wrong. He is
talking about North and South arrangement, there is nothing like north and south. Let him
show me the constitution where we have the North-South arrangement?�
As if that was not enough, the forum of Northern governors issued a statement declaring
the 2007 presidential slot a no-go-area to other zones. In a statement read by Danjuma
Goje of Gombe State, the Northern governors said it was the inalienable right of the
North to produce the next president.
Goje pointed out that �some of us were alarmed at the forum where we were seeing
subterranean moves to deny the North the presidency. It is not possible. Let us not be
jokers in this country. If we want the country to live in peace as a corporate entity,
democracy to continue, the presidency should naturally rotate between North and South
zones.�
But Governor Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State disagreed with the position of his Northern
counterparts and asserted that �although I know of the existing zoning formula in the
PDP, I am not aware that it has been zoned to the North. Apart from the South-west, I am
not aware as of today that any other group is precluded.�
However, from the account of Special Adviser to the President on Political Affairs and
Secretary, PDP Board of Trustees Prof. Jerry Gana, the decision of the PDP to zone the
presidency in 1998 to the South was based on an unwritten understanding that Obasanjo
should have eight years after which power would shift back to the North. Gana also
maintained that there was indeed an unwritten agreement to shift the presidency to the
North in 2007.
In his words: �If I may follow the historical perspective, it is important to re-emphasise
the need for the rotation of the leadership of this country in view of our recent
experience�. In 1998, when this was being debated, many of us as it were, especially in
the G-34 that became the PDP insisted that power should shift to the South and we are
glad that it happened and it stabilised the polity.
�At the meeting, there was this understanding, it is not a written constitution...it is an
understanding that if power shifted down-south and that the President should have two
terms, that is eight years, that it will only be nice for stability, if it is allowed to go to the
north for eight years, that is two terms. This was the general understanding. There is no
written law about it.
�When we promoted the idea of power shift and power shifted, I know Nigerians are wise
people and they will give room for fairness at all times; they will allow it, but it is not
that the PDP has decided, it is not a written law.
�I am speaking to you as the first secretary of the PDP and how the debate went is what I
have just reflected. Allow it, so that there will be stability, peace and security in the
country�.
Collaborating Gana�s statement, Governor James Ibori of Delta State asserted that in the
same vein as Gana said the party decided that the South should take the presidency in
1998, it was also decided in 2003 that the South should go for a second term after which
power would shift to another zone by the same consensus.
The Arewa Consultative Forum(ACF) equally maintained that power must shift to the
North in 2007. Its Chairman, Chief Sunday Awoniyi was quoted as saying �nobody
would prevent the North from getting the Presidency�.
For the Leader of the Senate, Senator Dalhatu Tafida, power shift and rotation of the
presidency is all about the North and the South. According to him, if the nation
wants peace, then presidency must shift to the North in 2007.
In his words: �You know as much as I do that the North really mean the 19 states in the
North, of course Abuja if you like, can be said to be in the North, by share location, that
is the North. While the South includes those three zones, making up South-west, South-
east and South-south, these are the South and the party, PDP, as we know it made
pronouncements about zoning, rotation between the North and South, so when you are
talking of South, you are talking of those three zones, South-west, South-east and South-
south, when you are talking of the North, you are talking of the North-west, North-east
and North-central, that is all I need to say and I think the presidency, from the party�s
pronouncement and I think if we want peace, it should move up North, after 2007�.
Although the controversy has continued to rage with various arguments for and against
powershift, Obasanjo�s remarks last Sunday, during his media chat has again brought the
issue to the front burner of national discourse.
In what appeared as if Daniel spoke his mind, Obasanjo declared that he was not aware
that the PDP has zoned the presidency to any zone or state. Though, he ruled out
the possibility of the South-west having the presidency zoned to it in 2007, Obasanjo
said that at the right time, the party would decide which zone produces the next
president.
Implications of Obasanjo�s Remarks
Since Obasanjo made the declaration that the PDP has not zoned its presidential
slot to any of the zones, analysts have been looking at the various implications such
a declaration have for the 2007 presidential race. While there are views that the
President�s declaration was what was needed to lay the controversy over which
zone produces the next president to rest, there are also views that Obasanjo�s remarks
would deepen the raging controversy.
Certain inferences could, however, be drawn from the president�s remarks. One of such
inferences is that, though, there might have been an agreement or a pact among some
politicians, the PDP as a party has not taken a position. Another inference that could
be drawn from Obasanjo�s remarks is that, though some people may be aware of an
agreement or a pact among politicians or the PDP, that power must shift to a
particular zone, Obasanjo does not have a knowledge of such. The third inference
that could be drawn from Obasanjo�s position on zoning is that all the zones have
equal rights to the slot and that the PDP would, at a certain point, decide which
zone should have the presidency in 2007.
The implication is that, declaring that the presidency is out for grab by any of the
zones, except South west, would make other zones which have not really shown any
serious interest in presidency on the belief that power would go to the North based on
an alleged pact, to intensify their clamour for the presidency.
For presidential aspirants, while the president�s position could be said to have
brightened the chances of some, it may have limited those of others. Until Obasanjo
made his position known on the issue, the 2007 presidential race had been limited to
three political gladiators from the North, namely Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Brig-
Gen. Buba Marwa (rtd) and former President Ibrahim Babangida.
This had to do with the position of the North that there was a pact in 1999 and
2003 that power must return to the zone in 2007. But with the latest revelation,
chances of aspirants from the South-South and South east may have been
brightened.
With the exception of Governor Peter Odili of Rivers state, who is also speculated to
be interested in 2007 presidential race, the three are about the only presidential
aspirants who have been oiling their campaign machinery ahead of the 2007 contest.
The implication now is that, a level playing ground for all aspirants may have
indirectly been created, while there are also bound to be a plethora of presidential
aspirants until the slot is finally zoned by the party.
Obasanjo�s declaration that though the PDP has settled for powershift and power
rotation but has not decided where the presidency should come from is also
believed to have serious implications for PDP as a party. Until his declaration, the
controversy over which zone produces the next president had already polarised the
party as some of its key members held divergent views on the issue. The latest
development may further polarise the party.
Another implication of the President�s remarks is that it has settled the fears over
insinuations that he might be interested in having another shot at the presidency in
2007 after constitutional impediments may have been removed. His unambigious
position on the fact that the South-west would not be part of the zone that would be
considered for the presidency in 2007 based on PDP�s principle of powershift and
power rotation, has finally laid to rest, speculations about his third term ambition.
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