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Nigeria has potential to
be next Afghanistan
By Princeton Lyman & Scott
For The Baltimore Sun
It may seem insignificant to Americans that an
extremist Islamic militia attacked two Nigerian police stations Sept. 20,
killing five people. But whether the United States cares to notice may have
dire consequences. In September of 1991, the State Department's special envoy
to Afghanistan, Ambassador Peter Tomsen, cabled Washington with a prophetic
warning: Afghanistan was ``a receding issue in U.S. global interests'' and
American neglect ``would be a blow to U.S. objectives in combating terrorism.''
Unfortunately, the
world's attention waned and Tomsen's worries turned into reality when the
Taliban regime rose to power and provided Osama bin Laden with a refuge to
coordinate and train al-Qaeda terrorists. Similar warnings are being voiced
about the situation in Nigeria. With Washington's focus so heavily centered on
Iraq and Afghanistan, it is important not to overlook other regions that could
descend into sanctuaries for the next generation of terrorists. In its report,
the 9/11 commission called on the U.S. government to take steps in remote
regions, such as West Africa, to prevent the rise of future sanctuaries.
Indeed, Washington should
be seriously concerned about Nigeria, a principal supplier of oil to the United
States and Africa's most populous country. Nigeria has about 66 million Muslims
(more than Egypt), most of whom have provided a strong center of moderate Islam
in West Africa. There is no history of virulent anti-Americanism.
But Muslims in northern
Nigeria feel politically marginalized and suffer from extreme poverty.
Religious fervor offers an outlet for these frustrations: Since 1999, 12
northern Muslim states in the country have adopted the Sharia penal code, to
popular acclaim. Islamic extremists have begun to link northern frustrations to
the United States and its policies in the war on terrorism.
The Islamic militants
who attacked Nigerian police stations last month appear to be aligned with
Al-Sunna wal Jamma, which is made up of mostly university students who seek to
create a Taliban-style state. Still small, such extremist groups are
nevertheless tapping into a wider atmosphere of frustration and feelings of neglect.
Nigeria's troubles in
the Muslim north are coupled with serious unrest in the oil-rich, largely
Christian south, where economic rather than religious grievances are the
driving force.
Disruptions in the oil
industry in Nigeria have been growing in severity over the past year as
insurgents have become better armed and more aggressive. For example, the Royal
Dutch/Shell Group had to evacuate two offshore oil rigs Sept. 25 because of
attacks from a local rebel group, the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force.
The violence helped push
oil past $50 a barrel in world trading. Washington cannot afford to confront an
entrenched Taliban-type movement in Nigeria.
Should Nigeria, or even
part of it, become more open to this or a similar movement, it could provide an
enormous, resource-rich haven for al-Qaeda. Washington should seek to
``pre-empt'' the rising radicalism, not with military force but through
diplomatic and economic engagement.
The State Department
fills senior posts in Nigeria with junior or at best midlevel officers. None
specializes in Hausa, which is the primary language spoken by Nigeria's
Muslims.
Aid levels declined in
the past four years, and Nigeria's appeals for debt relief have been ignored.
Intelligence collection in the region has dropped significantly since the Cold
War. As with Afghanistan in the early 1990s, troubling signs are emanating from
Nigeria; it is not fair to Nigerians or Americans to again ignore a rising
Taliban.
Princeton Lyman, a
former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
Relations. Scott Allan was a counsel to the 9/11 commission focusing on
Afghanistan and the Taliban.
•Culled from Nigeria Today
Online
Allan
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