IT is indeed a positive development that after a very long while during which the zone was consigned to playing a support role, leaders of the South South have now decided to come together to take their political fate in their own hands. Last week, they met in the beautiful city of Calabar to iron out their differences, fuse various interest groups together and come up with a common agenda towards ensuring that their position in the body politic is enhanced. It was indeed a major paradigm shift in the country.
Twenty-four hours to the mini confab, there were fears that it might be called off as the governors of four of the six states in the zone refused to be fully identified with the project for fear that it was meant to project Mr Godspower Ake as the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the area. They reasoned that as the most senior party man at the Forum, Ake whose earlier election was strongly denounced by the governors of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo and Delta State, would not only steal the show but obtain legitimacy with the presence of the region’s leaders.
Besides, the four dissenting governors felt that it might be used to endorse the ambition of Governor Peter Odili who has never hidden his ambition to feature prominently in the 2007 agenda. Thus, they stayed away. An inside source informed Vanguard that the decision to send representation was a compromise. It was at once to pacify leaders like Chief Edwin Clarke and Chief Joe Wayas who would have felt slighted by their total boycott, and at the same time to register their disapproval of the perceived real motive for the meeting.
Apart from the governors, some elder statesmen from the zone equally stayed away. They included Chief Harold Dappa-Biriye and Chief Anthony Enahoro. Their presence would have gone a long way in giving the meeting a stronger voice. However, in attendance were other leaders from the zone such as Governors Peter Odili of Rivers State and Donald Duke of Cross River; deputy governors of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Edo States; former President of the Senate, Dr. Joseph Wayas; former Chief of General Staff, Admiral Mike Akhigbe; former Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Nsikak Eduok; first governor of the Mid-West State, Major General David Ejoor; and renowned writer and leader of the Ijaw, Chief Edwin Clark. Others included former governors (military and civilian) from the zone, past and present members of the National Assembly and past and present public office holders.
It is now history that the meeting did not endorse anyone as Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate. Rather, the confab frowned at any move to vie for the number two position. Leaders of the zone reasoned that it was time they made a bold move for the number one position.
This is understandable in the context of the bid by the various zones for the prime slot. The South East, neighbours of the South South, have consistently argued that they have the best argument for the slot now. They have, at various fora, argued that the three zones in the North should be precluded from vying just now since they have had their feel many times over. It is also logical that the South West which was compensated with the office in 1999 and continues to hold on should not expect to be allowed the privilege of fielding another candidate in 2007. To the South East politicians, the South South should hold on for a while since the Igbos make up the third leg of the Nigerian ethnic tripod.
However, at their one day summit, the South South served notice that it was unwilling to take the back seat for the Igbos to occupy the driver’s seat in 2007. The logic of their presentation is sound and cannot be faulted. In the First Republic, the First Citizen of the Nigerian federation was the late Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe. As President, he was the head of State according to the 1960 Constitution. It is true that under the parliamentary system, he was a mere ceremonial president, but it was some compensation for his contribution to the attainment of Nigerian independence. Also, the man who emerged by providence the first military Head of State, Major General Johnson Thomas Umunakwe Aguiyi-Ironsi was an Igbo man. For a very short spell of six months, he called the shorts.
This, indeed, is a far cry compared to the experience of the South West which had the opportunity, through General Olusegun Obasanjo for three years, and through the same man as a civilian for five years now ( which is expected to have lasted eight years by 2007). The North East produced the Chief Executive in the First Republic while the North Central, through Generals Yakubu Gowon, Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar ruled the country for 18 years. The North West was in the saddle for almost 13 years through the regimes of Generals Murtala Muhammed, Muhammadu Buhari and Sani Abacha, as well as the civilian government of Alhaji Shehu Shagari.
Yes, compared to the three zones in the North and one in the South, the South East has a cogent claim to power, but can the same hold in relation to the South South which has never been allowed to fill the space for even one day? This is the argument of leaders of the South South who converged on the town of Calabar to deliberate on the way forward. The leaders also posited a strong economic argument as the energy for keeping the country alive emanates from the region.
The leaders explained that oil from the region accounted for 42 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product and 93 per cent of her export. They argued that political power is central to everything in Nigeria and therefore, decided to make a bold move.
If the decision on which region should produce the next president were to be based on logic only, there is no doubt that any fair minded person would align with the position of the South South leaders. Unfortunately, politics has never bowed to sheer logic. Rather, it is usually a long drawn contest, sometimes a bitter contest and only the strongest stand a chance. This is why some youth groups from the zone have started moves to get the leaders to adopt a more realistic stance. In their view, the reality on ground indicates that the North which accounts for more than 50 per cent of the votes cast at every general elections, and whose leaders have shown themselves to be more astute at negotiating, are likely to have their way.
In terms of devising a winning strategy, the youth groups have canvassed that the Southern minorities communities of the South South zone should go for the Vice Presidency. It is believed that this would stand them in very good stead in the post-2007 era since the number two man would then have a legitimate stake on the position. Otherwise, the youth fear that should the presidency go to the North and the vice presidency to the South South, the zone would be deprived any hold on power for a very long time. Even in the event that power be allowed to shift to the South East, it is unlikely that it would then be allowed to move to the third zone in the South before the North makes a claim.
Sources close to the organisers of the South South Peoples Assembly say the meeting at Calabar would not be the last. There are indications that the next rounds of meeting would be rotated among states in the zone if only to reassure the dissenting governors and give them a sense of belonging. It is still not clear if this could work the magic. The governors are legitimately interested in what becomes of them after 2007.
All six are second term governors who are barred from contesting for their seats again. Already, some have begun to unfold their agenda. The Rivers State governor, Dr Peter Odili, one of the two who attended the meeting, is said to have kick-started a bid for the vice presidency. He is believed to be aligned to the president and is said to be comfortable with whatever position President Obasanjo may come up with on 2007.
Reports from Edo State indicate that Governor Lucky Igbinedion also has his eyes on the hot seat. He is believed to be neck-deep in the Atiku-for-President campaign and, if things turn out well for Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Igbinedion might be his successor. Governor Victor Attah’s profile as the current chairman of the Governors’ Forum is quite high. A successful architect, Obong Attah will be 68 in 2007, but he is reportedly not averse to becoming Nigeria’s vice president.
With the decision precluding anyone from the region from biding for the number two slot, it remains to be seen if the governors would abide. The split in the ranks of the governors occasioned by the attempt by President Obasanjo and Chief Tony Anenih to fix Chief Godspower Ake as successor to the late Aminasoari Dikibo is still fresh. None of the four governors is willing to bow to the decision of the national executive of the party that Governor Odili’s man be installed as the National Vice Chairman for the zone.
The reality on ground today is that unless there is a major development on the political horizon before 2007, PDP is likely to continue with the control of all levers of power across the country, especially in the South South. This imposes a burden on strategists of the zone to look at the power equation within the party. Does the region stand a chance of pushing the other zones into the background to grab the presidential ticket?
It is obvious that there are two formidable groups in the party today, one loyal to the president, and the other to his deputy. If the two close ranks, no other person would stand half a chance. Otherwise, if the vice president decides to pursue his ambition to its logical conclusion despite the president’s objection, it would be a battle to the finish line.
At the moment, there is no indication that the president would look anywhere outside the North for a candidate. In doing this, he would be looking across his shoulders at the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) which might reap huge benefits from a wrong choice of candidate by the PDP. It is almost certain that the ANPP would not look beyond the North for its candidate.
In view of the crisis that has rocked and continues to rock the Niger Delta, the armed campaign of Asari Dokubo and others, would the power blocs of the country be comfortable with a Niger Delta president in 2007? Rather, if the cards are played well, the zone could use the current situation to strongly bargain for the vice presidential slot, especially given its bloc support for the PDP in 1999 and 2003.
As 2004 plans to roll by, the battle for 2007 is likely to pick up early in 2005, the year the PDP is expected to hold an all-important elective convention. The zoning policy for party posts is likely to point the way to the direction the presidency would go in 2007. The stakes are quite high. It is interesting that the South South is not content with taking a back seat. For analysts, the development signals what to expect from next January.
