For a 58-year-old political warhorse, the picture of political sheepishness recently ascribed to Vice-President Atiku Abubakar suggests and incongruity.
Apparently hemmed in by retired generals in the presidency, Atiku Abubakar may have turned his politics to the cunning instincts of a Customs officer attempting to sniff out contraband from the cargo of a hardened smuggler.
At the height of the nation’s power equation - and exercising maximum control - is President Olusegun Obasanjo, a retired general. At the height of the nation’s security apparatus is Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, an affectionate ally of the man whose growing image hounds the Vice-President’s ascendancy to what he regards as his destiny. And then shrewdly directing the affairs of the nation as the President’s first interface with the polity as Chief of Staff in the presidential villa is another retired General, Gen. Abdullahi Mohammed.
Ring-fenced with these awesome generals and their dutiful troops, it is thus no surprise that the Vice-President may have recoiled into a shell as close observers of the political affairs of the presidency would have observed.
These days, Abubakar is either opening an Islamic conference as he did last Tuesday, launching an educational project or simply holidaying abroad. Well that is publicly.
But it has not always been so.
Plucked from the celebrations heralding his victory at the Adamawa State gubernatorial polls in 1999 unto higher glory as President Olusegun Obasanjo’s running mate in that year’s presidential elections Abubakar has, ever since, and not surprisingly, regarded himself as Obasanjo’s successor.
His choice as Obasanjo’s deputy was in itself not unmerited. Not after his close shave in the 1993 elections and his commanding leadership of the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua political machinery on which Obasanjo rode to office.
In his first term the Vice-President reigned supreme, arguably becoming the most powerful second in command to have occupied the position of Vice-President in the country.
His ascendancy was of course not surprising as Gen. Yar‘Adua had left him in command of his intimidating political machinery, the Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM.
It could be argued that the Vice-President made good use of the opportunity available to him between 1999 and 2003 for in that period he consolidated his hold on the PDP machinery as his PDM ultimately became the engine room of the party.
The national working committee was peopled by his acolytes some of whom are now the major brains behind his 2007 quest.
With the Vice-President in control of the economic agenda of the administration, notably as chairman of the national economic council, his influence in the administration was celebrated. Besides, he also played a very visible role in the privatisation programme of government in the first term during which he ‘cloned’ the el-Rufai phenomenon.
His role in the economic programme of the government, however, remains controversial. Allegations that he used his office to corner some of the major assets of government to himself and his cronies continue to dog him now and again.
Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, who headed the government’s privatisation agency, the Bureau for Public Enterprises, BPE, was rarely interviewed by a newsman without the issue of the Vice-President’s alleged confiscation of government assets being brought up. And time and again, el-Rufai rubbished such claims.
With Abubakar’s agents surreptitiously reminding us again and again of the alleged mismanagement of the 1991 Gulf War windfall by the Babangida administration, the Vice-President sould indeed prepare himself to respond to the torrents from the IBB camp by giving a good explanation of how the privatisation programme has been run.
Besides stamping his feet on the economic scene in the first Obasanjo term, Abubakar’s political sagacity was well demonstrated in his ability to build alliances with the governors, the lords in the nation’s 36 States.
With the probable exception of a few PDP and ANPP Governors such as Governors Peter Odili of Rivers State, Abdulkadir Kure of Niger, Dipereye Alamieyeseigha of Bayelsa State and Attahiru Bafarawa of Sokoto State, the Vice-President was in close political alliance with nearly all the other Governors between 1999 and 2003.
With such awesome political leverage available to him in the first term, it was thus not unexpected that Abubakar would be tempted to eyeball Obasanjo and demand for his job.
Acolytes of the Vice-President in the months running up to the 2003 election were fingered as purveyors of the impressionable theory of the Mandela option on Obasanjo. That is, that President Obasanjo should follow the Nelson Mandela option of serving only one term and handing over to his Vice-President.
What ever was the intention, the President was rankled and with the former PDM activist, Tony Anenih leaned on to ‘win’ the PDP’s presidential ticket.
Abubakar’s role in the months running up to the 2003 PDP primaries would ever remain controversial and would continue to dog him.
Should Obasanjo fail to annoint him as his successor, his reason would understandably be connected to Abubakar’s stance in the days ahead of the PDP presidential primaries in January 2003.
With the PDP presidential primaries just hours away, and with majority of the PDP Governors urging him on, the Vice-President bragged on radio that he had not made up his mind on who, between Obasanjo and Dr. Alex Ekwueme, to support.
That seemingly treacherous confession was for Obasanjo, the retired general, comparable to a soldier going AWOL in the war front. As a soldier who deserts the war front is punishable by death, pundits say that General Obasanjo has in the second term wasted no time in prescribing political death for the Vice-President.
Baring his fangs, a Governor, James Ibori, and an Abubakar loyalist who was allegedly in the forefront of the supposed gang-up against the President in the primaries was brought to near ignominy when a supposed past malfeasance was brought to hound him in the law courts - that is, there appears to be a linkage between his travails on the ex-convict saga and the role he played in January 2003 at the PDP presidential primaries. There are suggestions that the Governor who only recently barely escaped from being removed from office on account of the past records dug up against him made it only by switching camp from Atiku to Babangida, who reportedly helped get him off the hook.
At the same time, the President has moved to curtail Abubakar’s separate identity burying his office into the office of the President.
The second term would be a united presidency and the President demonstrated thus when aides of the Vice-President allegedly involved in the alleged Mandela project were hounded out of their jobs at the beginning of the second term.
Reinforcing his determination, at the tail end of last year, Obasanjo approved the dismissal of some of the Vice-President’s key aides, among them Mallam Garba Shehu who had replaced Chris Mammah, as the VP’s spokesman. Apparently, Mr. Shehu and the sacked aides were alleged to be giving the impression of a divided presidency as well as smearing Opresident Obasanjo. However, Obasanjo’s image has not since changed even after the likes of Shehu were sacked for one simple reason:
Obasanjo himself presents a melancholic image which does not in any way present him for sympathy; and that is the reason why Nigerians still love to hate him as their president
With the torrents against him, it could well be understandable why the Vice-President has these days found it joyful to stay outside the presidential villa. His trips abroad supposedly for holiday or to his Adamawa base have noticeably increased in the second term.
But it would seem that his tacklers would not even allow him rest in his home.
With his profile, Abubakar had regarded the Northeast as an impregnable nest whatever it may be.
But as the 2007 elections approach, the Vice-President is being challenged on his own turf. It is a reminder of how Abubakar and the Yar‘Adua machinery caused the public humiliation of leading Yoruba political aspirants of the SDP in the 1992 presidential primaries when the machinery saw to the defeat of such notables as Olabiye Durojaiye, Olu Falae and Lateef Jakande in their own backyards in the Southwest.
Well, ahead of the 2007 race, Abubakar’s rivals seem to be borrowing some leaf from his own political notebooks. Even in the first term the Vice President’s rivals were able to raise a worthy compatriot of his from the Northeast as a possible replacement for him in Obasanjo’s ticket.
Governor Adamu Mu‘Azu of Bauchi State who by nearly all accounts is regarded as one of the best performing Governors, if not the best Governor, had been penciled down as a possible replacement for the Vice-President on the Obasanjo ticket in 2003.
Though that plot did not materialise, Governor Mu‘Azu is generally regarded to be in the quest to get the PDP’s presidential nomination for the 2007 contest.
Even right in Abubakar’s inner chamber in Adamawa, opposition to his quest is also being fanned by Gen. Buba Marwa, the retired general who made an impression as Governor of Lagos State.
Against suppositions of docility, the Vice President has understandably fought back and is now alleged to be facilitator of the seemingly far-fetched presidential aspiration of Gen. Mohammed Kontogora, another impressionable retired General who made a name in quality service while in government. Whatever Marwa does or would do to him in Adamawa, let Kontogora do same to IBB in Niger!
The Vice President is also supposedly fighting back at encroachments made into Adamawa Central Senatorial district where a confessed friend of Gen. Babangida, Senator Jubril Aminu represents the constituency.
"The former President, Ibrahim Babangida has been my boss and my friend, a very good friend. There is no way anybody can tell me my relationship," Senator Aminu told Vanguard in an interview last month following some failed efforts to nudge him into the Abubakar choir.
Agents of the Vice-President who Senator Aminu identified as being led by Governor Boni Haruna are alleged to be facilitating the current effort to recall the Senator from the Senate on account of his alleged political misdeeds.
As the Turaki turns 58, it is highly tempting to believe that his recent proclivity to political inertia could have arisen from the combined torrents he may have been receiving from the political generals within and outside power.
Such supposition is highly deceiving and is an underestimation of the political potentials of Abubakar. Abiola learnt to his permanent peril what he lost in choosing Babagana Kingibe over Atiku as running mate in the 1993 presidential primaries. As is generally acknowledged the Yar‘Adua camp would have fought Babangida to a standstill if Abubakar was Vice-President in 1993.
That was eleven years ago when he was in his mid forties. Today having learnt more even during the Abacha valley years, Abubakar at 58 is again preparing for the final fight with Babangida.
If Obasanjo allows the battle to be on neutral ground, Nigerians would see political forces of today marshaled by Abubakar squaring up against IBB’s men. It would be a battle to the finish.
