An avoidable face-off
Matthew Okikiolakan Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo, President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a man who presents himself as one with unrivalled gusto. Indeed, he has every right to so present himself.
But that gusto may have been deflated with last week's talks between his administration and the Niger-Delta Peoples Volunteer Force ( NDPVF), led by Alhaji Mujahid Asari Dokubo, talks which an Obasanjo government would not have otherwise allowed.
In fact, presenting the facts of the talks to the Nigerian public created its own brand of confusion in Obasanjo’s government. Whether out of a concern not to be seen as buckling to the fear that the rebels may make good their threat, or out of a concern not to create panic, government spokesperson, Oluremi Oyo, did not confirm that such a talk would hold. It had to take the Information Minister, Chukwuemeka Chikelu, to publicly own up that government was, indeed, holding talks with Dokubo.
It was this same Dokubo that Obasanjo was to describe as “rascally elements from the Niger-Delta.”
But the real signal that President Obasanjo has sent out is that those agitating for the convocation of a sovereign national conference may not be taken seriously except they adopt a Dokubo approach. And to think that just last week, the Council of State empowered Obasanjo to crush rebellions - as in a MASSOB irritation (the body agitating for a more equitable participation of Nd'Igbo in Nigeria, led by Ralph Uwazurike, ordered Nd'Igbo to stay at home on August 26; the stay at home order was very successful and has since been giving government concern; and there is also the Oodua Peoples Congress, OPC, led by Gani Adams, controlling a militant faction while Dr. Frederick Fasehun leads another faction - what it means is that this administration would do deal with anybody who bullies it too. Had preparations for the convocation of a national conference been on, a Dokubo may not have necessarily gained serious prominence - although the grievances of the people of the Niger-Delta remain intact.
The irony in all of these is that whereas Nigeria’s President Obasanjo is the one graciously hosting the negotiation talks on Daffur, the wretched and endangered western part of Sudan, because of its humanitarian catastrophe, Nigeria is herself dotted with such metaphoric expressions of Daffur.
There is a sudden resurgence in the call for a sovereign national conference. With Pa Anthony Enahoro, the man who moved the 1953 Independence motion, as its arrow-head, Nigerians United for Democracy, NUD, had called for memoranda from Nigerians. While those in government today remain blind to the need for the restructuring of Nigeria, with the argument that there is a government in place, the question being asked is: How is the government coping with, and handling the multi-faceted socio-economic and political problems created by the defective nature of the Nigerian state?
It would be re-called that at its last meeting with the leadership of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) two months ago, the NUD and the ACF resolved to embark on wider consultations with a view to ensuring an all-inclusive preparation for the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference. In fact, the NUD had called for and got memoranda from different groups within the polity on how best to orgainse a conference.
A meeting, which was supposed to have been held at the chambers of Chief Rotimi Williams, between NUD and The Patriots, but which although saw in attendance the likes of Chief Solomon Lar, founding chairman of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP); Professor Ben Nwabueze, immediate past Secretary-General of the Ohanaeze Nd’Igbo; Chief Ayo Adebanjo and Chief Lanihun Ajayi, both Afenifere chieftains; Chief Isaac Shaw, Second Republic minister; and Chief Asemota, did not eventually hold - at least, based on the complaint raised by Chief Williams, in response to newspaper reports.
It should be pointed out that the NUD and The Patriots have both established themselves as leading lights of, as well as pillars for, democratic emancipation, socio-political and economic development of the Nigerian nation.
Professor Julius Ihonvbare, Special Adviser to President Olusegun Obasanjo on Policy and Programme Monitoring, said that those agitating for a national conference are making a stupid request. According to him, “we made that demand on the military because (the military administration) was illegitimate.”
On the other hand, is it not equally stupid to continue to waste national resources on a system of administration that is flawed both in concept and in practice? It is to this that NUD, an umbrella body of professionals, Labour, political parties, academics and leaders of ethnic nationalities, is also responding that the stupidity of a denial for a national talk shop in the face of glaring anomalies in the Nigerian polity, rests in the fact that the military government which Ihonvbare said is illegitimate, is the same body which created the 1999 Constitution which the present administration is using. The NUD had made it clear that the Federal Government is not competent to convoke a sovereign national conference because it is itself an illegitimate government. The group said the 1999 Constitution on which the present government derives its purported legitimacy is the product of the military.
The government might just as well have conceded that only brutes can get it to alight from its height of insensitivity.
A government is humbled by rebels
When last Thursday it emerged that President Obasanjo had open talks with Dokubo, perceptive observers sensed that something far more serious than most ordinary Nigerians can relate to, has happened. A look of bewilderment must have been exchanged in many circles across the land. To begin with, President Obasanjo is seen as a man who sees power in highly personal terms, and has little temperament to negotiate. And in any case, negotiate with who, and over what? Since 1999, the various Federal Government spats with NLC over deregulation of the downstream sector for instance, show a tendency to interpret policy differences with Labour in personal terms. If Obasanjo’s predisposition is a precedent to examine, discussing with any rebel group over issues concerning the Niger-Delta, an area where the overwhelming resources of the country is extracted, might appear as if he was asked to submit to a dentist to pull his tooth without anaesthesia. It would before now be taken as an unacceptable request.
As a ‘civil war hero’, and an army general who received the surrender instruments of the defunct Biafra in 1970, an accomplishment Obasanjo wears with immense pride, to have began talks with a bunch of ragtag rebel group, with little proper military training, marks an extraordinary change in the Federal Government policy. In any case, Obasanjo achieved fame as a war commander, who built a reputation following his role in subduing Biafra, as a man who understands what it takes to cage rebels. Taken further, what Dokubo and his group are doing is an affront to the commander- in-chief, and within the army, is punishable by court-martial and on conviction, firing squad, the President must have reckoned.
The government since coming into power a little more than five years ago, has always used brute force to suppress insurgency, especially the sort that Dokubo and his group are spearheading. The massacre that took place at Odi and Zaki Biam were ruthless military operations that cost lives and left massive destruction of properties in its wake.
Since the Dokubo insurgency began about a year ago, the Nigerian state through the Rivers State Government and its other agencies like the intelligence apparatus, and the Police, had attempted to use the usual methods available to it to suppress what the group is doing.
It had set up an armed rival group led by Ateke Tom to divide the cohesion of the Dokubo group. It had deployed the Police to harass and arrest members of the Dokubo group. Lives had been lost in these manoeuvres. But somehow, the Dokubo group, showing resilience, had continued with its activities of oil bunkering, and sabotage of oil pipelines, it had even threatened to kidnap expatriate workers of the multi-national oil companies. The NDPVF had gone beyond these and started making political statements, the sort the Nigerian state had always considered unacceptable. Dokubo has been talking about restructuring, sovereign national conference, self determination of the various ethnic nationalities, secession, and rejection of the legitimacy of the Nigerian state. He talked about the rigging of the last general election, particularly the governorship that returned Governor Peter Odili to power which he denounced as fraudulent. If there was any doubt about the seriousness of the matter, Dokubo and his group’s continued activities in the Niger-Delta dispelled all that.
In the short time hostilities had been on, the group demonstrated that it can survive no matter what security agencies can do; the group showed that it understood the very difficult Niger-Delta terrain, which is the world’s second largest delta. With government’s strong arm tactics to suppress and incapacitate the Asari group not achieving much, alarm bells reportedly began to ring around the world.
Not his will...
With the Navy’s embarrassing failure to overrun the delta and root out the rebels even with the sophisticated naval ships donated to it by the American Navy coming apart, and the typical Nigerian Army bungling staring everyone in the face, options seemed to be running out. Especially, on the federal side, which was reportedly under international pressure to restore stability at the shortest possible time. While the government policy was in disarray, Dokubo and his group were soldering on, taking fires from the army, and increasingly repositioning itself as a rebel group with a cause. Dokubo, gained the attention of the international media, which was a direct reflection of the increasing concerns their home governments had for the Niger- Delta quagmire.
He granted series of interviews with top journalists from leading media organisations around, increasingly becoming an issue himself as well as focusing the world attention on the unending tension in the Niger-Delta. Indeed, not since Mr Ken Saro-Wiwa, executed by General Sani Abacha in 1995, has any Niger-Delta personality gained the amount of attention Dokubo got along with the collateral benefit of refocusing world attention to the delta problem.
Wiwa, who preferred a non-violent means to resolving the delta question, exasperated the Abacha junta with his unbending principle and was hanged for his efforts. Somehow, the delta problem like so many unresolved issues in Nigeria, has a latent capacity to renew itself and upstage any semblance of stability in the polity.
In 1968, Mr Isaac Adaka Boro, declared his secession from Nigeria setting up the Niger- Delta Republic, which was however short-lived. But some of the ideas he raised, were picked up by latter day revolutionaries. Interestingly, Dokubo says Boro is one of his heroes. Clearly, Dokubo’s struggle is closer to that of Boro, with his armed struggle against Nigeria than that of Wiwa, which was non-violent. Oil today has become one of the most priced commodities in the world, and Nigeria, producing some of the finest quality of crude oil, has gained global concern.
What is more, with international demand for oil going up at geometric pace, and prices hitting all time high, any sign of disequilibrium in supply of crude oil creates panic and further pushes up the price. As it stands, major industrialised economies are reaching a breaking point in what price levels they can comfortably pay without distorting their economies and provoking world recession. With the Iraqi polity unstable and guarantee of sustainable crude oil uncertain, the Nigeria oil supply has assumed a global significance. Therefore, everything needs to be done to ensure its steady supply and a protection from any form of disruption.
Thus, what can be read from the activities of Dokubo and his group is that they are aware of the global dimension of the oil extracted from the Niger-Delta, and they seem determined to exploit the situation to achieve their agenda.
Dokubo, whose career as armed rebel has blossomed, started as nothing more than a political party thug, an enforcer for the PDP machine in Rivers State. It has been reported that he was a creation of the party, which empowered him by funneling cash; now with his break with the party, Asari has turned the guns he bought against his former mentors. Part of the perversion of Nigeria’s ruling elite is its blind ambition to win power by hook or crook. No law is too sacrosanct not to be violated, and lives can be taken at will, especially if it is an opponent’s life. It is poetic justice that one of the power elite’s own creation is tormenting it.
With over 40 billion dollars investment in the Niger-Delta in danger of being blown up, the international community had to do something. Oil experts say if the sabotage operations conducted by Dokubo and his group succeeds, it will take at least five years or more to restore operation to the present levels. Therefore, the dimension of fear is not just that 40 billion dollars investment is at risk, that is a considerable concern, no doubt, but that for the period of this kind of emergency, there is unlikely going to be any exploration of oil. In the event that such an eventuality occurs, oil prices are bound to hit roof tops, and the possibility of a global recession is not ruled out.
With the stake very high, some observers believe that a usually boisterous Obasanjo, with a penchant for gun boat policy, was actually prevailed upon to abandon his knee jerk policy and negotiate. To make matters worse, the government is presently contending with the NLC over hike in fuel prices. The Labour movement and the civil society have given notice of a planned strike to begin on October 11. Labour shut down of the country is likely to also have its effect on oil production, bringing in its wake another round of dislocation of the economy that has been in recession for over 20 years. While Labour’s action may not carry the same effect as destruction of oil installations, the signs of deep malaise in Nigeria is internationally acknowledged.
Therefore, added together, the signs coming out of Nigeria is bad for the health of global business. Something has to give if only to preserve stability, and the talks between Obasanjo and the rebels have to take place, especially with a group that has shown high level organisation, backed with sophisticated military hardware.
What if the talks fail?
Since gaining international attention, Asari has maintained his rejection of the Nigerian state, and his support for the convocation of a sovereign national conference by the ethnic nationalities.
From the Ijaw tribe, Asari insists that Nigeria, being a creature of British imperial designs, must be restructured to allow for peace and stability. For many years, the agitation for a national conference has been ignored by the Nigerian state; but now, with its existence and interest at stake, the reality that it can no longer be business as usual is about to sink home. For years, pundits have held that the Nigerian state will not accept convening such a conference unless such a time when it can no longer conduct its business in the way it has always done it. Events of the past few days show that the possibility of a national conference might be sooner than even its most hopeful promoters had thought. The way it stands, some views say if Dokubo and his group cling to this position and refuse to bulge, and the government refuses to yield on the ground that it cannot surrender the mandate given to it by the people by submitting to the demands of the rebels, then the talks might as well break down. If this happens, from public statements of Asari, it looks like the threat of dynamiting of oil installations in the delta might as well be carried out with dire consequences for all.
If precedents are anything to go by, global powers usually do not let things get out of hand if they can stop it. In that case, the possibility that if Obasanjo, by being obstinate, botches the talks, he might find his friends dumping and finding ways to create new friends in the delta. Just as it happened after the First World War when they created Kuwait, or the balkanisation of Iraq under President Bill Clinton, with the hiving off of southern Iraq from Saddam Hussein on the grounds that he was committing genocide against the Kurdish people.
Some observers say that in order to protect its oil installation and future interest, the global powers would not hesitate to cut a deal with the rebels and create another Kuwait in the Delta. While this doomsday scenario might seem unlikely to some, because of other strategic considerations and practical difficulties in executing this script, the point is that convening a national conference is no longer a matter. In any case, the view that the southern minorities are mere pawns in the political chess game might be coming to an end. The point is being made that the days of gang ups by the big three: Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba, to perpetuate their interest to the exclusion of the Niger-Delta is over. They may be small and variegated, but the weapon to paralyse the country is no longer the preserve of any one section.
Obasanjo’s plea
And although on the occasion of Nigeria’s 44th Independence Anniversary, President Olusegun Obasanjo, in his nationwide broadcast, confirmed that his government had been in dialogue with those he called “rascally elements from the Niger-Delta” in the effort to ensure peace in the country, the matter may not be as simplistic as he described it. It was, no doubt a veiled reference to talks with Ijaw warlord, Muhajid Dokubo-Asari, an Alhaji, who flew into Abuja on Wednesday from his base in Rivers State.
According to Obasanjo: “Most of the opposition movements that were active in 1999, have adopted democratic options in articulating and pressing their demands. We are talking to those I described as rascally elements from the Niger-Delta in the effort to open lines of dialogue and peace as they feel aggrieved by their state authorities. I can assure you that a rapproachment is taking place and that peace, stability and harmony will return to the Niger-Delta”, just as he called for an end to “violence, indiscipline, arrogance, intolerance and a fixation on subverting due process and the rule of law. Rascality and vandalism which are rapidly becoming the hallmark of the Niger-Delta”, he lamented, "have implications for the production, distribution and pricing of crude oil; for our global economic rating; for investor confidence in our economy; and for overall resources available to support growth and development.
“We surely have cause to be thankful to God. We have been through rough and tough times. As we try to retrace our steps and reposition our political economy for progress in an increasingly complex and competitive world, we must, in all humility, realise the blessings that we have enjoyed over the years. In spite of some tribulations here and there, we have been spared some of the horrendous experiences and attendant agonies that have plagued some nations. We are steadily recovering from our past errors and transgressions as we experience a renewed status in the international community, unprecedented growth in industry and agriculture, and successes in telecommunications, power and energy, industry, commerce, and health.
“Sustainable development is possible in Nigeria if we all put our hearts and minds to doing things the right way at all times in the interest of our people and country. The 13 per cent special allocation to the Niger- Delta on the basis of derivation, which now extends to the offshore, is meant to deal with the recognised and acknowledged situation of the Niger-Delta. The obvious assessment so far is that not much impact has been made on the lives and living standards of most ordinary people of the Niger-Delta. In the interest of security and stability of the Niger-Delta in particular, and of Nigeria in general, I appeal to those elected officials of the region whose efforts have not measured up to expectations, to endeavour to be seen to be more alive to their responsibilities and the plight of the people they are elected to govern.
“There have recently been some unease about the full deregulation of the downstream sector of the oil industry. Government is fully aware and sensitive to these feelings of unease. We do understand your hopes, dreams and needs. The decisions taken by government have been taken out of love and out of concern for our future, not out of insensitivity or sadism. Let me assure you that we are doing everything to cushion the impact of these policies so that Nigerians would not have to suffer where it is avoidable. In the specific area of deregulation of the downstream sector, the Federal Government has set up a committee chaired by the Honourable Minister of Finance to consider what cushioning measures can be taken to alleviate or moderate the pressures without compromising the goals of our reform. I hope that the committee will submit its report for inclusion in the 2005 Budget that will be presented to the National Assembly in the first half of October, 2004.
“There is a time in the history of every nation for reflection, forgiveness, unity and collective rededication to a positive future. We have been through a lot but let us look inwards. Let us look at our history, our communities, our families and ourselves. Let us seek answers to whether we are doing the right things before man and God individually and collectively and let us work hard so that history and our Creator will be kind to us. As we celebrate this 44th independence anniversary on a low key, let us pray for our country, colleagues, friends, and families; and let us recommit ourselves to the collective effort to build a strong, productive, corruption-free, God-fearing and democratic Nigeria.”
NUD’s call for memoranda
Pa Anthony Enahoro, the man who moved the Independence motion in 1953, is once again at the fore-front of the call for a sovereign national conference. He is joined by the cream of Afenifere leaders, the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural and economic organisation. Second Republic governor of old Kaduna State, Alhaji Balarabe Musa is already heading the Sovereign National Convention Committee of the body. The secretary of that committee is Chief Supo Sonibare, an Afenifere leader. The group is already calling for memoranda from members of the public.
The NUD, which transformed from the old Conference of Nigerian Political Parties, CNPP, has representatives from political parties, Labour, the professions and a wide range of ethnic nationalities.
Vanguard learnt that the transformation was necessitated by the need to make the movement more open-ended and all-embracing, as well as removing it from the realm of partisanship which the CNPP tended to suggest.
The memoranda being called for is expected to suggest procedures to be followed in convoking the conference. Matters like delegates’ participation and modalities for electing same, are to form part of recommendations being sought from representatives of ethnic nationalities as well as the generality of Nigerians. One of the conveners of the meeting told Vanguard that “a government like this cannot in any way, convene a national conference because it is itself the product of what the national conference is all out to address and redress.”
The NUD held a meeting in Kaduna on Monday, June 21. The meeting ought to have been held in Lagos last Friday, June 18.
Although June’s meeting in Kaduna ought to have held in Lagos the preceding Friday, June 18, Vanguard learnt that the main reason why the progressive politicians called off the meeting had to do with “the need to broaden the base of the agitation for, and eventual convocation of a national conference. At their closed door meeting that Monday at AREWA House in Kaduna, Kaduna State, the group decided that the first step pursuant to convoking a national conference would be the welcoming of memoranda from all Nigerians, either represented by groups or in their individual capacity.
Vanguard was informed that “the call for memoranda stems from the need to ensure that Nigeria is made an open and free society as much as possible and the very first step in doing this would be for the foundational efforts at ensuring this to reflect the sense of openness which we are all striving to achieve.”
The attention of those at the vanguard of the call for a sovereign national conference, Vanguard was reliably informed, was drawn to the need to ensure that preparatory talks pursuant to convoking a national conference should be made an all-inclusive endeavour.
The significance of this, it was learnt, is predicated on the need to ensure that all the various interests and interest groups are fully involved in all the preparatory arrangements for the eventual convocation of the national conference.
One of the very first achievements of that meeting, Vanguard learnt, was the ability of those from the southern part of the country to convince their northern colleagues of the need to ensure that the conference holds as quickly as possible.
In truth, the Nigerian state, as it is presently constituted, is a threat to itself. And one of such threats has manifested in the rebellion of Dokubo.
The devolution of powers which the military sought to engender by creating more states, in the warped belief that it would bring government closer to the people, was engendered more in the breach rather than its observance.
Since even the First Republic when the Mid-West Region was carved out of the Western Region, and then the creation of 12 states, then 19, then 21, 30, and now 36, has only succeeded in making a mockery of what true and progressive devolution of powers ought to represent. Apart from the MacPherson Constitution which allowed for a certain degree of participation by the people, as well as the independence constitution which started from the provinces and then to the regions, which in turn enumerated powers to the central government, Nigerians have not really had the opportunity of having an autochthonous constitution, one which is derived from the free and fair will of the people of the country. The prefix to the 1999 Constitution, “We, the people...”, is nothing but a fraud.
In a polity where the fundamental level of governance, the local government, is subsumed by the state, which is itself subsumed by the federal government, does not present a tantalising prospect for development and progress.
There are so many problems on ground and one of them starts with the federating units: What, actually, should constitute a federating unit? Should it be the states or the geo-political zones? What should be the basis of relationship between those units and the centre? In terms of resources, how should it be controlled and who controls what?
Even in Iraq, where there is a war of sort, a constitutional conference is on; just as Afghanistan, which was recently war-riddled, has had a conference and talks are still on, with elections schedule for this weekend, October 9.
In the instance of Nigeria, those insisting on a sovereign national conference may not exactly get what they want but it would tantamount to being kobo wise and naira foolish not to appreciate the need for a constitutional conference that can still give Nigerians the hope that things need not get to a situation of war or a complete breakdown of law and order before a meaningful talk shop is organised.
Even as President Obasanjo continues to insist that he does not understand what those demanding for national conference are talking about, Nigeria is today littered with a plethora of ethno-religious conflicts.
Unfortunately for him, the number of lives lost in those clashes since 1999 when he took over, far outweighs the number of deaths recorded since 1979 when he handed over to a civilian administration. And while some would quickly point to the Maitatsine riots and the 1983 clashes after the elections, there has been two Kadunas, three Kanos, Odi, Lagos, Junkuns Vs Tivs, Jos and many others.
The latest today is the rebellion of Dokubo, a rebellion which has gained international concern and appreciation of sorts.
It would be recalled that the agitation for a national conference gained fervency immediately after the annulment of the June 12 Presidential elections of 1993.
And whereas the General Sani Abacha administration caused the convocation of a constitutional conference in 1994 which came out with the 1995 Constitution, the product is seen as having been largely vetoed by the military.
Although the north, as represented by the leadership of the ACF, had been known to voice its opposition to a national conference, there had been a palpable shift in position since late last year on the desirability of a national conference.
