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High Oil Prices: Experts Predict More Volatility

Coming in the wake of the destruction wrought in the Gulf of Mexico by Hurricane Ivan, it was the antics of a Nigerian militia leader that briefly pushed oil over $50 per barrel for the first time. A surprise ramp up in US inventories a couple of days later brought prices down again. Still, behind the daily dramas of last week, the global oil supply system remains overstretched, presaging even higher prices when the next big shock- whether imagined, real or simply feared- comes along. The latest events were a double whammy, however, shutting down premium sweet crude output in the US and threatening the same in Nigeria: US stocks were drawn down instead of building - as might be expected at this time of year - foreshadowing a wild winter market to come, with high prices for crude and products alike. Militia leader Dokubo Asari's threat last week of "all-out war" against the Nigerian state put the country's 2.5 million barrels per day of mainly sweet oil output in the firing line. Yet, in any event, only 3000 b/d went down briefly and markets eased back, but not before oil had reached $50.47 (p8). In the US, some 490,000 b/d of capacity in the Gulf remained shut-in post Ivan, two-thirds of it Louisiana Sweet. In all, output of some 14 million bbl of oil and 60 billion cubic feet of natural gas from the Gulf has been lost so far. Forced refinery closures led to the additional loss of some 12 million bbl of product, puncturing the slow build in US heating oil, gasoline and crude stocks that had been seen through the summer.

The big market splash made by the combination of stormy US weather and the stirrings in Nigeria was due to oil supply angst, but it also brought to the fore in acute structural problem: Not only is there a lack of sweet crude



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