How the poll was conducted
WITH an objective to gauge the feelings of Nigerians on national issues on a regular basis, Guardian Opinion Poll (GOP), a socio-political scientific research was initiated by the Guardian Newspapers Limited.
The latest of the poll, which was conducted between September 18 and 29, 2004, had well-structured questionnaire as research instrument with 29 variables including seven on demography.
The sample was designed as a representative cross-section of all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, the poll excluded anyone who has not attained the age of 18 years on the date of the survey.
The essence was to give every adult citizen an equal and known chance of selection for the interview. This was achieved by strictly applying random selection method at every stage of sampling. The sampling population for this survey was 2,800 with a return rate of 96 per cent and confidence interval of plus or minus two per cent. The error margin was two
The design for the poll is clustered stratified and multi-stage area probability sample. It is stratified by key social characteristics in the population such as sub-national area and residential locality, which are urban and rural settings. The urban-rural stratification is a means of ensuring that these localities are represented in correct proportions. Likewise, the area stratification increases the likelihood that distinctive ethnic or language groups are not left out of the sample.
The survey covered all the six geo-political zones in the federation while the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja and Lagos were treated as special centres. In all, 14 states were scientifically selected and sampled.
The underlisted are the states picked from each of the zones and the rural/urban areas visited during the exercise:
North-Central: Plateau State-Bassa, Jos, Bokkos; Kogi State- Ibaji, Lokoja, Ogori/Magongo.
North-East: Borno State- Damasik, Konduga, Maiduguri; Gombe State- Dukku, Gombe, Shomgom.
North-West: Sokoto State- Gada, Silame, Sokoto; Kaduna State- Kagarko, Kajuru, Kaduna.
South-East: Ebonyi State- Abakaliki, Ohaukwu, Onicha; Abia State- Umuahia, Bende, Ikwuano.
South-South: Akwa Ibom State- Mbo, Mkpat-Enin, Uyo; Delta State- Udu, Oshimili North, Asaba.
South-West: Ogun State- Abeokuta, Ijebu-Ode, Ifo; Ondo State- Owo, Akure, Bolorunduro.
FCT, Abuja: Gwagwalada, Kuje, Abuja.
Lagos State: Ikeja, Ikorodu, Ojo/Ijanikin.
In all, 400 interviews were conducted in each of the zones with 200 per state; same for Abuja and Lagos. The interviews were conducted by 280 trained field personnel across all facets of human endeavours in all the selected states, including Lagos and Abuja.
The study revealed that 50.6 per cent of the respondents were single, 45.7 per cent married; 1.7 per cent were divorced; 0.9 per cent were widowed while 1.0 per cent are separated.
The educational qualifications of the respondents also showed that 2.6 per cent had Doctorate degree, Masters degree holders accounted for 8.6 per cent, 39.2 per cent were Bachelors/HND holders; 15.6 per cent had professional qualifications such as ACA etc. About 20.4 per cent possessed GCE/WASC/SSCE certificates; 5.8 per cent were First School Leaving Certificate holders while 7.7 per cent accounted for other specified certificates.
The demography of the respondents in the study revealed that 66.1 per cent were males while 33.9 per cent were females.
The age distribution showed that 49.6 per cent of the respondents were between ages of 18 and 30, 31.7 per cent were between 31 and 40, 14.9 per cent were between 41 and 50, while 51 years and above accounted for 3.8 per cent.
The occupational distribution of the respondents indicated that 28.1 per cent were civil servants; 8.8 per cent were professionals; artisans 1.0 per cent and military personnel 2.0 per cent.
Traders accounted for 5.1 per cent; 2.7 per cent were contractors; 1.8 per cent were housewives; farmers/fishermen 1.1 per cent; unemployed accounted for 7.3 per cent; 26.6 per cent for students; 1.2 per cent were ministers of religion; casual workers were 2.4 per cent, teachers/ lecturers were 6.6 per cent while 5.3 were other specified occupations.
Respondents' yearly income reveals that 16.6 per cent earn between N41,000 and N80,000; 9.9 per cent between N81,000 and N100,000; 11.0 per cent earn between N101,000 and N140,000, 9.3 per cent earn between N141,000 and N200,000, 11.3 per cent earn between N201,000 and above while 41.9 per cent do not earn any known yearly income.
Team of Researchers: Enayon Abiodun, Rasak Sadiq, Abidoye Abiosun, Richard Bayewunmi, David Babatunde, Godfrey Iriogbe, Sunday Adebiyi and Chioma Okonkwo.
Co-ordinators: Dr. Jide Oluwajuyitan, Mr. Henry Onifade, Mr. Andrew Yacim and Mr. Gani Odusanya.
Consultants: Dr. Adidi Uyo and Professor Adigun Agbaje.
