I read page 705 of my oxford dictionary of current
English. In it, they were telling me that, to predict is to state that an
event will happen in the future. In noun prediction is a thing that has been
forecast! It is not my mother tongue I just derived this definition from the
native speakers. I only thank God that I had several opportunities to
interact with Australians (not Austrians) Canadians, Americans etc.
In relation to Nigerian national politics, I made a few
predictions some of which have come true. Take this indisputable example
please. I once predicted chaos in 2003 presidential election and I concluded
that, despite the chaos there would be no war.
As far as presidential election is concerned, prominent
among the contestants possibly include Ibrahim Babangida, Atiku Abubakar and
Buba Marwa. Others may possibly include Muhammadu Buhari as well as those we
may not even know at the very moment. Be assured that PDP or ANPP will
produced Nigeria's next President come the year 2007. Circumstances may
force others to enter into alliances and in that case, let us wait and see
if the alliances could work. Very high greed for power in 2007 could lead to
the disappearance of democracy. PDP in particular will be the home these
greedy politicians who could invalidate or threaten the functions of our
democracy. Despite this, the PDP has more chances of producing the next
president of Nigeria in 2007. Readers should take note of this prediction so
they could quote me correctly. I am not saying it must be! I am saying the
PDP has more chances than other political parties. I am saying again the PDP
will be the source of chaos that will destabilize democracy.
Firstly, PDP will never surrender the sweet of power to
any other political party even if that political party may genuinely win the
presidential election. This prediction must be clear to all and no little
ambiguity. Enjoying the sweet of power for mighty 8 years; is it really so
easy for my uncles to surrender that power to someone in the name of
landslides at the polls?
Secondly,desperate, greedy and very hungry politicians
are mostly in PDP. I predict that one or two of them will loose chance
within the PDP and they will be terribly frustrated. They may even begin to
think of destabilizing the party, or democracy as a whole! Prediction clear?
Take this example. Muhammadu Buhari has opponents in ANPP who don't put him
on a lofty-pedestal. Some of them are working round the clock to ensure that
the party does not give him one more chance to become their presidential
flag bearer in 2007 presidential election. With all pleasure, other
political parties can give him chance. In that case, can I then, predict the
death of ANPP especially in North West? Poor masses will particularly
welcome him to all the other political parties. Again in that case, the ANPP
may loose the current status of being Nigeria's second largest political
party. Clear prediction? Or can I predict that, Muhammadu Buhari will decamp
to another party? To which party will he decamp? It is not easy to predict
at the moment. Circumstances will determine this. However, P.S.P is one of
the possible options P.R.P too can be an option, etc.
Listen to the most significant prediction on the
country's fate in 2007. It will be based on the theory of Obasanjo's demand
for third term. Unnamed politicians confirmed that, reliable PDP sources
told them that, already a group of experts has been commissioned to work
towards the success of Obasanjo's third term bid. Group members included
former ministers and former advisers etc. If this may be true what will be
the fate of other presidential hopefuls? I am particularly referring to
Ibrahim Babangida, Atiku Abubakar etc. It is still not clear which political
party will host Buba Marwa. But what really will be the fate of Babangida
and Atiku if president Obasanjo will go for third term? In 1999, we heard of
an agreement between the northern oligarchy and Obasanjo on power sharing
that gave chance to south-westerners. They should have 2 terms thus,
1999-2003, 2003-2007 It was a way of compensating the south westerners
because their son late Abiola was intentionally denied the chance to ride to
power having won land-slides in a presidential election that was annulled by
the then military in power. Now, is Obasanjo out to violate the agreement?
If yes, what will be the reactions from Babangida, Atiku, the two most
presidential hopefuls at the very moment? We must remember that, fighting
the incumbent is not that easy at all. Unilaterally, Ibrahim Babangida may
not successfully win the fight. Atiku too may not. In other words, both
Atiku and IBB may loose PDP Presidential primaries to Obasanjo. Will be two
alternatively decamp to other parties?
I hereby predict that, certainly they will. They will
however decamp to two different parties, because if they decamp to the same
political party, I wonder who will be the running mate? Can Babangida accept
to be the running mate to Atiku? Can Atiku accept to be the running mate to
Babangida? That is why I said above them will decamp to two separate
political parties and that is one more prediction, a very clear one. At the
level of general elections, can Babangida, Atiku and Marwa make a coalition
against Obasanjo? My prediction here is that they will not unite in terms of
one stepping down for the other. They will only unite interims of their
attempt to preventing of Obasanjo's landslides for the third term. If
tension becomes high and they are so sure of Obasanjo's victory, I predict
again they may even seek co-operation of Muhammadu Buhari all in their
attempt to ensure the defeat of Obasanjo! What is the nature of this
co-operation? Can Buhari really co-operate? The nature of this co-operation
is that they will all decamp to one political party and they will all
support one of them to emerge as their presidential flagbearer. Readers may
find this prediction too incredible but it may wonderfully happen I say if
the tension is high and they are sure of Obasanjo's third term victory. In a
response to the second question I say yes, Buhari may co-operate all in an
attempt to remove any possibility of Obasanjo's landslides for the third
term. Muhammadu Buhari will co-operate but he won't allow himself to be used
by them. He will actually cooperate if they will all agree to make him their
presidential flag bearer. But they will fear him so much if he emerges the
president. He will prove them the same day he assumes duty in the
presidential villa. If they avoid him, can they support Obasanjo's victory
for third term? Londoners say, one can be forced to choose between two
unfailingly. I predict they will still opt for cooperation will Buhari but
on two conditions thus, one, he will not probe them if he assumes duties
after taking oath. Two, they will ask him to bring highly respected royal
fathers and other elders to sign a written agreement as his guarantors. But
most of our royal fathers will be reluctant to serve as Buhari's guarantors.
Dear readers, I keep on searching for information on
Obasanjo's third term bid. If it is not true then, my next predictions will
mainly focus on the battle between Atiku and Babangida. I will also predict
on Buhari. We may remain healthy and alive in sha Allah. All I know is that
too many brooms spoil soup according to an adage. We hope the tension in
2007 will not kill the nascent democracy. Prediction can be real.
Buhari A. Gabari is a freelance Journalist in Kano and
can be reached at [email protected]
