To appreciate the problem which presently confronts Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the indefatigable governor of Lagos State who also goes with the title, Asiwaju, all an observer needs to do is look at the calibre of those arrayed to take over from him in 2007. Not that Tinubu still does not have the headache of an Oluseye Ogunlewe breathing down his neck with the instrumentality of his Federal Road Maintenance Agency, FERMA, he still has that to contend with, but the bigger problem he is having and may continue to have is the choice of a replacement for him when the time comes.
Of all those making pretensions to a possible take over, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, two-time Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi and the recently interested Lagos State Deputy Governor, Femi Pedro, stand out as likely successors.
However, each of them carry with him an excess baggage which, if not properly balanced, may cause a buckling of the still surviving contraption referred to as the Alliance for Democracy, AD, just as it may likely lead to a catastrophic end for the political future of some of those presently angling for succession.
Picking these front runners from the rear, Pedro, who, information available to Vanguard suggests owes his present position to at least two of those presently seeking the number one office in Lagos State, is respected in banking circles.
For an individual who rose to the top job at First Atlantic Bank, a new generation bank which took the banking sub-sector of Nigeria’s financial system by storm, it is no mean feat. But the world of banking is not the same as the murky waters of politics. Urbane in outlook, cool in disposition, Pedro, while not looking like the poker-faced average Nigerian politician, is said to possess an analytical mind.
However, the best of brains may not turn out to be the best of politicians, especially when it relates to relating with the people at the grassroots level.
In fact, what Pedro possesses in terms of intellect, he lacks in the real world of political networking.
First, at the height of the struggle for the re-validation of the June 12 mandate, a man like Pedro was nowhere to be located. Not that he was supposed to be part of the crusade and he dodge the draft, he was just not one of those in political activism at that time. And there are many politicians who still relish in what roles they played or did not play when the crises was on. It was at a time when some politicians (enter Afikuyomi) had to take flight for safety reasons and continue to battle abroad, just as there were politicians on home soil (enter Obanikoro) who, without their participation in the struggle would have made the flight abroad meaningless.
And as if not to appreciate the power of grassroots emancipation, Pedro has stuffed his office with near-neophytes in politics. Unfortunately for him, and because of his cool disposition, there are those who see in Pedro a deputy who just wants to get by with his boss, suffer him for as long as it is practicable, and then eventually, may be when he gets what he wants, turn coat or simply show his true colour. The truth being that you do not become the chief executive of a bank in today’s Nigeria and display the mien which Pedro carries about with himself. Far from that. In fact, information has it that the reason why he was appointed deputy Governor in 2002 was because was recommended as a smart person. Would he be able to do the job. That depends.
The Federal Government/Lagos State Government tango is another point which would matter. Pedro is known to have always been the representative of Governor Tinubu any time President Olusegun Obasanjo comes to town. This, some Pedro critics have used as a point with which to insinuate the deputy governor into some untowardness: They say he’s becoming too familiar with the president and even alleged - and without any concrete proof yet - that he may be pre-empting Lagos State Government policies. Had the polity not been one without its murkiness, nothing says a Pedro can not clinch the spot. However, he would need to convince Lagosians that his own Pedro is, indeed, of the soil, that there is no native Pedro in Epetedo, except Agarawu, which is not his.
A few known deputy governors that fall into the category of wanting to replace their bosses include: Sir Goodluck Jonathan (Bayelsa), Chief Benjamin Elue (Delta), Chief Ebere Udeagu (Imo), Chief Okechukwu Ezenwata (Enugu), Chief Gabriel Toby (Rivers) and of course Chief Mike Ogbiadomhe (Edo), and even Femi Pedro (Lagos State, who is seen, largely as an outsider).
Now, in the run-up to the real contest, the media campaign of Afikuyomi is more than enough to easily hand the keys to Alausa Governor’s Office to the only two-time senator from Lagos State in this Fourth Republic. The fact of his second coming as a senator, in a situation where Adeseye Ogunlewe, a former AD, and Wahab Dosunmu, also a former AD, have been appointed minister and ambassador, respectively, relates to Afikuyomi’s commitment to the values and virtues of his party, the AD.
Although his second coming ( the first election victory was on the wave of the June 12 sentiment), which had to be brokered by Governor Tinubu himself, was not as smooth as the first. He contested the Lagos Central seat in 1999 and won. However, Dosunmu’s decampment to the PDP, saw the Second Republic Minister of Housing moving from the Lagos West Zone to his traditional Lagos Central on the platform of the PDP. Governor Tinubu, sensing the danger signal, had to move Afikuyomi to Lagos West, where, again, A Ganiyu Solomon, a politician with his feet firmly on ground in that zone waiting. It had to take Governor Tinubu’s personal intervention, via several pleas to Solomon, to allow Afikuyomi contest the Lagos West Senatorial Seat. Even at the primaries, the state government had to bring the full weight of its force to bear because even while Solomon conceded at the last minutes, there were supporters who still complained that an Afikuyomi was merely a usurper who is not from Lagos West and would not represent Lagos West effectively.
To be fair, Senator Afikuyomi is cerebral; he can marshal his points in a number of ways, even in a spell-binding manner, if you like. That makes him a very articulate politician, sometimes verging on the very loud and even unnecessarily so.
But in terms of concrete political support on ground, Afikuyomi suffers a discount. That discount is a function of the fact that he is a wholesale politician. In this context, Afikuyomi represents the genre of politicians who operate from the surface above.
Such politicians have an advantage which is the fact that they network at the top level. However, where networking at the top level does not really do the job, you need to move to the grassroots (enter Obanikoro). Politically, Afikuyomi is not known to have won any election on his own steam. The councillorship which he contested in the early days of General Babangida’s transition was not successful. It had to again take the anointment of Babagana Kingibe, then Social Democratic Party, SDP, Chairman for him to make it to the House of representatives.
For all of Afikuyomi’s seeming politically correctness, had he the complementality of grassroots support, he would have been a perfect vote-catching politician.
Add to this the fact that he is not seen as a true son of the soil - although every Yoruba migrated from Ile-Ife.
For Obanikoro, he would have to explain to the people of Lagos why the perception continues to gain ground that he is hobnobbing with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. That is one excess baggage he is carrying. This perception even received amplification with the controversy which surrounded the emergency vote in the senate.
While Afikuyomi was away in exile, Obanikoro joined forces with pro-democracy activists on ground in Nigeria.
Whereas there are insinuations that Obanikoro, Musiliu’s surname, is merely a title and not his original surname, there are those who insist that had that not been his surname, it would not have been as easy as to hand him such a title in the traditional line of Lagos. With his deep grassroots support and seeming amiable disposition - always looking boyish without the exposure of his baldness - Obanikoro is said to be in close contact with most traditional rulers in the state. While some political leaders insist that Afikuyomi acts aloof, Obanikoro atimes dons the mien of a Lagos boy - something which he over-does when he chooses to, the awa la’leko (we own Lagos) syndrome. However, his grassroots approach to politics stands him in good stead.
Obanikoro had been an LG chairman during which time he was said to have done well.
It was to his credit that Governor Tinubu found him worthy of first, being made a Special duties Commissioner, before being drafted to confront Dosunmu on the mainland and Island turf-battle which is Lagos Central Senatorial Seat. Obanikoro won. In fact, it was the fear that Afikuyomi would lose to Dosunmu which made Tinubu draft the former to Lagos West.. Koro, as Obanikoro is fondly referred to, is said to be a member of the Justice Forum, the policy cum political arrow-head of the AD. Until Mcfoy took over, Koro was said the have served as secretary of the group. This would play a major role in who gets the AD ticket - although Afikuyomi is known to have also boasted that he belongs to the group.
But beyond the issue of boasts, placed side by side, it is quite obvious that the way Lagos politics runs, Tinubu would not just need a Man Friday to take over from him, he would need somebody who can touch base. It is in this context that the trio of Pedro, Afikuyomi and Obanikoro would reaklly have to demonstrate seriousness, commitment and a steadfastness hinged on not mere propaganda but on concrete support. And then the questions arise: Who has done the most to demonstrate that he can win elections? Who is seen more as a people’s politician and not a political swindler? Who can be seen as a moderate, without compromising and playing along in the politics of compromise that the Nigerian polity has been imbued with?
Whereas the contest is not only going to feature these three, there is also Aro Lambo, who is a major player in the politics of Lagos State - although his wavering disposition between Funso Williams and Tinubu may count him out of serious contention.
Then there is also one Kaoli Olusanya, the state commissioner for agriculture who is also said to be interested.
But the bigger problem for all these politicians is that what some are counting for a discount may turn out to be the clincher. As the polity stands today, it would require a miracle for the AD to retain Lagos State - this is not impossible.
First, last year before the elections, the rating of Governor Tinubu was at its peak because of his performance and steadfastness. With that, he barely retained Lagos with a little over 190,000 votes. With the present reality of federal might against the state, something which has made it appear as though the state government has lost its steam of performance, Lagosians are beginning to grumble.
There is a school of though which counsels that the state government should soft pedal in its antagonism to the federal government while not compromising itself. Some members of the public are already of the view that the AD of today is going to become a component of the PDP in 2007. Indeed, there were moves at some point by the leadership of the party to go into the PDP. That, however, was put on hold.
Today, the reality on ground is one which suggests that the AD, without putting its house in order, may just lose out completely come 2007.
Therefore, some politicians are already beginning to counsel that an early entry into the PDP, without losing face, may be one of the options open to it. Although the party leadership would not admit this in public, the resources that would be needed to fight the battle in 2007 may not be readily available for the party. Whereas Vice President Atiku Abubakar was instrumental, albeit sub-consciously in the victory of the AD in Lagos in 2003, in 2007, the Vice President would also be fighting the battle of his life for survival then.
It is that politician which properly situates himself within the matrix of the power politics presently going on between the state and the federal government on the one hand, as well as one which does not play out his hands too early, either as an entrenched AD loyalists, or as a possible turn coat that may eventually carry the day. At the end of the day, it is he who knows how well to touch base, without the rhetoric of grandstanding, that may carry the day.
