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B N W: Biafra Nigeria World News |
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Beyond The 2005 Census
Population count or census in Nigeria began as far back as 1866 even though in that year, it was confined to the Lagos area. The first post independence population census in 1962 was marred by accusations and counter accusations of inflation.
The recount of the population in 1963 showed either the 1962 census was inflated or the 1963 census was an under count. The other two successive population counts were in 1973 and 1991 and the latter put the population figure for Nigeria at 88,992,200 million and growing at 2.86 per cent. By the way, a population census is the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time or times, to all persons in a country.
A population census is therefore a means towards the generation of accurate and reliable demographic and socio-economic data to facilitate overall national development. One of the essential characteristics of a population census is that it should be taken at regular intervals so that comparable information is made available in a fixed sequence. A series of censuses makes it possible to appraise the past accurately, describe the present and estimate the future. The United Nations suggests that censuses be taken decennially. This is the practice in many civilised countries. It follows that the country should have conducted its last census in 2001. The implication is that apart from the 1991 census data, no effort has been made to address comprehensively the data needs of the country to date.
Even though records of vital events - births, deaths, marriages, divorce and available in all local government areas of the country, the fact remains that they are not adequate and reliable. In civilised countries, these add to the profundity of demographic analysis and to the degrees of confidence with which generalisations can be put forward and assumptions made for the purpose of estimating future population. Nigeria's population growth rate is estimated to be between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent per annum. At times, estimates of 2.83 per cent are employed. Two fairly good censuses at an interval of 10 years will solve the problem of inaccurate population growth rate. In all sectors of the economy the need for reliable and accurate population figures cannot be over-emphasized.
The present Obasanjo -led civilian government came into office in 1999. During its first term, no effort was made to conduct a national count in 2001. Whereas dearth of reliable and adequate demographic data continues to wreck incalculable damages to effort to develop the country. There is hardly no sector of the economy that has not been adversely affected. To take an example, Obasanjo's Universal Basic Education Scheme (UBE) took off in September 1999. The products of this scheme are expected to enter junior secondary schools in 2005. What is there on the ground to absorb these fresh secondary school products in 2005? Are we projecting and planning for those who enter the scheme subsequently?
It was late Professor P. O. Olusanya who remarked that data from population census are so valuable that their unavailability adversely affects the rationality of public policies. There is no doubt that many public policies in Nigeria fail largely due to lack of reliable and adequate demographic input. Why do we want to conduct a national headcount in 2005 after introducing our home-grown poverty reduction strategy? The government's response to the challenges of underdevelopment is the introduction of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). NEEDS is a medium term development strategy (2003-2007) focusing on empowerment, wealth creation, employment generation and poverty reduction.
This laudable policy would have benefited immensely from reliable demographic and socio-economic data if there was a national count in 2001. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development recognised that integrating population into economic and development strategies will both speed up the pace of sustainable development and poverty alleviation and contribute to the achievement of population objectives and an improved quality of life of the population. In line with this, population issues should therefore be integrated into the formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of all policies and programmes relating to sustainable development.
We have often narrowly, negatively, and politically perceived population concerns in this country. Currently, there are 55 universities in the country with only a single full-fledged Department of Demography and Social Statistics at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. Granted that other related disciplines also have a role to play but how many demographers do we have currently working at the National Population Commission? There are too many square pegs in round holes. Issues and concerns of population and demography hardly deserve due recognition and attention. Nigeria prides itself a continental giant, a sub-regional power and the largest market in Africa solely by virtue of her population size.
Even though favourable investment policies and political stability weigh heavily in the minds of investors coming to Nigeria however, the most important attraction is the population size. Egypt, South Africa and Kenya fare better in terms of according proper recognition to population concerns. Egypt, the second most populous country in Africa is the regional population centre for the Middle East and North Africa. Kenya and South Africa are regional population centres for Eastern and Southern Africa. Nigeria deservedly should be the hub of population activities in Africa.
Beyond the 2005 census, there is the need for states especially Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, Anambra, Rivers and the Federal Capital Territory too set up population agencies. There should be close collaboration between the Population agencies and the National Population Commission (NPC). The new body should collate statistics relating to birth, deaths, divorce and marriage in the registration centres at the local government areas.
The functions of the agencies are to undertake amongst others sample surveys, which will be conducted during intercensal years to update data on their population. The characteristics of the data to be generated are essential factors of development. Moreover, the body will be charged with the responsibility of advising the government on population redistribution policies, the development of satellite towns and the implementation of the National Population Policy. There is no doubt that there are many cities where the unexpected rise in population has affected the facilities on the ground. In many towns and cities there is no perfect harmony between available infrastructure and population.
At present, the States Population Commissions have little or nothing to do especially after the conduct of every national head count due to shortage of fund. The Federal Government needs to fund the National Population Commission (NPC) adequately to meet its expected responsibilities. There should be collaboration between the National Population Commission, the National Planning Commission and the various public and private sector agencies. With the recent re-launch of the National Population Policy, now is the time for the Federal Government to re-examine its disappointing attitude to the Commission and strengthen it for greater efficiency.
* Dr. Fadeyi teaches Sociology at the Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos State.
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