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Dynamics of power-shift politics in Edo
CENTRAL to the gubernatorial power-shift politics in Edo State is loyalty. Thus, in the end, it will boil down to a simple but complicated question: What is the reward for loyalty? In the public imagination, Edo State Deputy Governor Mike Oghiadomhe has been unquestionably loyal to Governor Lucky Igbinedion.
At a time during the first term, when several deputy governors were at loggerheads with their governors, Oghiadomhe's loyalty to and co-operation with Igbinedion were unshaken. Even when some deputy governors threw their hats into the ring for the gubernatorial ticket, Oghiadomhe stood by his boss.
Indeed, at some point, he declared that he considered himself a member of the Igbinedion family and in the eyes of the public has been so treated.
Presumably, Oghiadomhe's steadfastness was not just an indexation of loyalty but was, and still is, tinged with an expectation of a handsome reward to step into the shoes of his boss. This raises a delicate challenge. How does Igbinedion treat a loyal subordinate? If, for the pottage of 2007, he deals with his current deputy in a manner that suggests that he can jettison his loyal subordinate, Igbinedion will have a perpetual baggage of liability to contend with in future. He will have created the image of a user--- never to be trusted. Yet, in the fluid world of politics that characterised by trade-offs, it will not be surprising that loyalty alone cannot be the sole factor in Igbinedion's assessment of his deputy and how, therefore, to deal with the latter's ambition.
Other relevant factors may be deduced from the following posers: How did Oghiadomhe become deputy governor in 1999? How was he re-nominated? Isn't there the lingering whiff of caucus politics that somebody was on his knees, begging that he be given the opportunity to run again on the same ticket with his boss in last year's elections? Wasn't the condition that, if he ran with his boss in 2003, he would forswear higher officer in 2007? Can he in that circumstance now seek to jettison the agreement? Of course, not being a legally binding agreement, he can opt out of it. And, if he does, he knows he will not have the party machinery behind him and is destined to fail at the primaries.
But the dynamics of power-shift politics in the state are driven by the political geography. Edo has three senatorial districts: North, Central, and South. The South Senatorial District has about 58 per cent of the state's 2.53 million people, a vital statistic in electioneering. Igbinedion, a Bini, is from the south. Oghiadomhe, an Afemai, is from the north. Since the creation of the state in 1991 by the Babangida regime, Edo State has produced two governors, while Edo North has also produced two deputy governors. John Odigie-Oyegun's reign as governor with Obada lasted from January 1992 to November 1993, when Abacha struck. Edo Central, which is made up of Esans, has not produced any governor since 1991. Nevertheless, under the old state structure, Prof. Ambrose Alli, an Esan, was governor of the old Bendel State from 1979 to 1983. Similarly, Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia was first military governor of the defunct Mid-West from 1967 to 1975, and later an elected governor for three months in 1983.
Edo South still does not feel comfortable with the idea of an Edo North person being a governor so soon. It is more like the national scene where, in spite of the agitation for an Igbo presidency, the prevailing feeling in most other parts of the country is that an Igbo presidency is not just yet. The reason, of course, is traceable to the hangover effect of the civil war, which though ended 34 years ago still has a huge scar over deep wounds and fears of Igbo domination. The reason why Edo South is not eager to embrace an Edo north governor has its sad but understandable origins in 1975, after the overthrow of General Yakubu Gowon. Along with Gowon went Brigadier Ogbemudia, as he then was. Ogbemudia who was the governor of the Mid-West is regarded as one of the country's best all-time governors. He was replaced by George Agbazika Innih, then a Colonel but who rose to the rank of a Major General. Innih was of Edo North, while Ogbemudia is of Edo South.
In pursuit of the so-called civil service purge of the Murtala/Obasanjo regime, Innih embarked upon a whirlwind of ethnic cleansing against Binis (Edo South). More than 75 per cent of those who were relieved of their jobs were Binis. Yet, Innih grew up in Benin, spoke the language fluently, and attended Edo College in Benin. Riled by the ethnic cleansing in the civil service, the Binis protested, and Innih was redeployed to Kwara State. Until then, military governors served in their states of origin. But Innih's redeployment changed all that, and unfortunately for the Binis and the rest of the state, whether as Bendel or Edo, there came a long line of alien military governors and administrators who never impacted positively on the lives of people. It was as if those military governors and administrators were sent to hold down the state and punish the people. It was no surprise, therefore, that Ogbemudia's unrivalled legacy could not be sustained. Bendel, which was once a shinning star, fell on hard times. Nobody forgets that it all arose because of Innih's flawed agenda that provoked the Binis.
Innih died a couple of years ago. The circumstances of his death have also deepened Edo South distrust of Edo North, because Innih was alleged to have travelled to Abuja, to protest that only mostly lawyers of Edo south origin were being made Senior Advocates of Nigeria. He died subsequently from injuries he sustained in an accident on his return journey from the protest trip. The distrust shows itself in the potent hypothetical question of what an Edo north governor might do again to the Binis.
We return again to the question: What is the reward for loyalty? In the context of Edo politics, the other way to view that question is to inquire into how Governor Igbinedion decides to treat his mentor/benefactor. It is an open secret that Chief Tony Anenih, incumbent chairman of the board of trustees of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), threw his weight behind Igbinedion in 1999 and 2003. Anenih has publicly referred to Lucky Igbinedion as his political son. Anenih worked assiduously to ensure the governor's success in the elections. Will Igbinedion in contemplating power-shift in 2007 forsake his benefactor? If he does, that will become a good example of how not to trust anybody on whatever permutations are promised for the moment on the basis of some future redemption. Every compromise will be based on instant gratification. But it is very unlikely that anybody can sustain a political career on a legacy of forsaking benefactors. Nor can any effective political machine be constructed in that sense.
Already, it is crystal clear that it is a futile exercise for any one in Edo State to dilute the influence of Anenih, provided the latter is still active in politics. He has not retired. His influence is not just the man himself; it is the system he has helped to nurture, which has roots and trunk and branches in most parts of the federation. A confrontation with Anenih, therefore, is not a mere clash with an individual from a senatorial district but with the political organisation that he represents. Recent events in the state serve to elucidate this point. Shortly after the commencement of the second term, some PDP members moved against Anenih's men, a step that culminated in the embarrassing impeachment of Anenih's nominated Speaker of the Edo House of Assembly. Not how Anenih reasserted himself during the council elections but more importantly how he re-emerged on the national political scene as the chairman of the PDP board of trustees. His profile has not diminished ever since: his shadow has not grown less.
As may have become clear from the foregoing, how Igbinedion handles the Anenih factor is key to resolving the 2007 equation. Anenih as an individual does not nurse any ambition of becoming Edo State governor. But it is an understatement that he is interested in who becomes the state governor in 2007. It is equally an understatement that he is keen on having Edo Central senatorial district produce the next helmsman, in fulfilment of the necessity of power-shift. It would have been all too easy to ride roughshod over Anenih if the wishful thinking of some detractors a couple of years ago had any scintilla of truth. At the time, persons seeking to tug at the impregnable political robe of Anenih had begun the baseless speculation that Anenih was grooming his son, who bears the same name with him, as governor in 2007.
Knowledgeable insiders were amused. As matters have turned out, nobody drops Tony Anenih Jr. names any more in the race for 2007. Instead, those now being mentioned include Solid Minerals Minister, Elders Odion Ugbesia, Senator Oserhiemen Osunbor and Architect Mike Onolememen. Insiders believe that, in the end, the choice will be from among the three with the distinct possibility of a dark horse phenomenon that resolves the 2007 calculus and empties the stage for another round of electioneering in the future.
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