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B N W: Biafra Nigeria World News |
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Our modified military rule
SINCE the 1999 Presidential and gubernatorial elections and subsequent installation in office of the elected President and Governors, quite a few Nigerians have been basking in the misplaced euphoria of the dawn of democracy in the country. But simply because there is now a few individuals in place as elected chief executives of the Federal and State Governments with their legislative assemblies, it should not be construed as the signal of the emergence of an enduring democratic culture in Nigeria. On the other hand, other Nigerians see the present dispensation as a modified military rule.
This piece is prompted by the developments since the past many months following 2003 elections. Campaign by political office aspirants started at about the same time that the 2003 election ended and among these campaigners are those who had just then been elected. In other climes, it is usually the quality of services rendered and the programme of work accomplished that normally sell candidates to the electorates. In Nigeria, the determining factors in vogue include the role of praise-singers, influence on money, ethnicity factors, etc. Above all, our brand of Federalism makes the Presidency the juiciest of all political offices in the land owing to the high concentration of power in that office. Because of this, the attraction is irresistible and ex-military men are currently dominating the scene. Among those aspiring to secure the post are two ex-military men; namely, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Buba Marwa. Observation in the past months reveals that barring something bordering on a miracle it would be save to predict that either of these two gentlemen would emerge as President of Nigeria in 2007.
Mr. Atiku Abubakar is also said to be aspiring to occupy the top position. Perhaps he deserves some form of support especially as he is the only civilian among the three front-runners. But what are his chances? Unfortunately, while the Generals and their lackies have been crisis-crossing all the nooks and crannies of the country, lobbying and making their aspiration known, Atiku is yet to get on to the field. His problem is obvious. As the Vice President of the Federation, his boss (the President) would not (and quite rightly so) sanction the dereliction of his current duties. He has to work and stay at his desk. By the time he takes his leave from work, probably within a few months to the election, he would find that the referees had blown the final whistle against him.
Compare that with the advantages enjoyed by the Generals. Within the past three months, this writer had been at two of the airports in the South-South zone of Nigeria and on each occasion it coincided with the arrival at those airports of General Ibrahim Babangida and General Buba Marwa respectively. At the first of the two airports an unprecedented mammoth crowd of enthusiastic supporters was awaiting the arrival of Gen. Babangida. They were all the time drumming, dancing and singing in adulation of the expected General. Passengers of a scheduled flight had a hard time elbowing their way to their departing aircraft. The second occasion was only about three weeks ago at Calabar airport. The crowd was awaiting the arrival of Gen. Buba Marwa, former Military Governor of Lagos State. Again the airport was jam-packed with Men, Women and Youth Associations from the South-South zone, all of them drumming, dancing and singing and carrying banners to express their love, high expectations and good wishes for their idol. What one witnesses a the two airports made it quite convincing that in the Presidential election of 2007, it will be a straight fight between these two military Generals. But why must Nigeria continue to be ruled by ex-military-men?
It is difficult to explain the on-going enthusiastic support that the ex-military men are enjoying from certain Nigerians. The Governments at the Federal and at the State levels have been blaming lack of socio-economic development and progress since they assumed office on years of military mis-rule. Poverty Alleviation Programme (PAP) was launched about five years ago but was discarded shortly afterwards apparently because the cure (PAP) could not cope with the severity of the disease (poverty and misery) brought about by the military Governments of yore.
Recently, what could be regarded as drugs of extreme potency reputed to be capable of curing all our socio-economic ailments have been introduced in the form of economic Reform Programmes tagged: NEEDS and NEPAD (albeit without any safety net) to alleviate extreme sufferings of the people. Therefore the Reform Programmes have ushered in extreme sufferings, extreme poverty, unemployment and deprivation in the country. The response of the Government to the people's complaints is the perfunctory explanation that many years of military mismanagement of socio-economic affairs had left the economy in a total mess and that it would take years of concerted effort to put the economy back on track and that nothing short of a total transformation of the economy would eliminate pervasive poverty, high inflation rate and unemployment in the land.
Meanwhile, things are getting worse by the day and the government keeps consoling the citizens, advising them to continue to endure the suffering - that good times are on the way! But how many Nigerians would survive while awaiting the advent of the good times? The point is that it is the same discredited military-men who have been staging a come-back with the tacit concurrence of some of the same suffering citizens.
Nigerians are worried that the chances of the emergence of a truly civilian President in the foreseeable future are bleak. Analysts reckon that in 2007 we shall have another ex-Army General or officer who would likely rule till 2015. They do not believe that even after 2015, a civilian President would emerge because even though the present and emerging crop of civilian politicians would have acquired the wherewithal to contest the Presidential election but there is also the likelihood that military Presidency would continue because within those future years, existing and newly retired military officers would join the political train - to perpetuate the military stranglehold of that top office.
It is often argued that retired military officers are Nigerians and are therefore equally entitled to aspire to occupy the highest political position in the land. This is a truism. But the danger of retired military officers monopolising the office of President of Nigeria is real. An additional argument that these people are civilians at the time they present themselves to the electorates does not represent the full picture. A peep at the list of those leading and spearheading the campaign of the two front-running Presidential aspirants reveals that the list is dominated by retired military officers, assisted by a handful of civilians.
The point is that every retired military political office seeker regards the military as his primary constituency; they derive their strength and confidence from that constituency. The subsisting esprit de corps ensures that they trust one another more than they do their civilian friends and colleagues. How else can anyone explain the choice of a retired military General to be the Administrator or Plateau State (without prejudice to the illegality or illegitimacy of the action) in a country brimming with seasoned civilian Administrators, experienced politicians and statesmen, renowned Political Scientists, Sociologists, etc. The truth is that it is only a civilian President who would consider good advice by knowledgeable and responsible citizens and organisations like clergy-men, eminent jurists, the patriots etc. Military Presidents would always dump any advice or opinion from such sources as useless and unworthy of consideration!
It is sometimes argued that Nigerian electorates are either overwhelmed with complex reflecting decades of military dictatorship or that they support ex-military men because of pecuniary consideration or both and that in course of time, the situation would change. Unfortunately, from observation it does not seem that a change of direction is likely in the foreseeable future. Some analyst do not see any change within the next two or three decades. The South-East and the South-South zones have both been clamouring for candidates from those zones becoming the President of Nigeria. What chances have they? With due respect, one could categorically maintain that their chances in the foreseeable future are nil. The South-East, for instance, cannot produce a president as long as every man in that zone wants to be the President of Nigeria. The South-South is similarly incapable of producing a President since so many eminent persons from that zone are neck-deep in promoting the existing military candidates. Unfortunately, some Nigerians continue to delude themselves in believing that what we are currently practising is a democracy and federalism whereas we are still very slowly transiting from military rule. As to when true federalism will emerge leaves us only with the option of star-gazing.
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